Early start to the Cape Verde season?

Windspeed · #1 Postby **Windspeed** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:27 am

There is a very established wave exiting the continent of Africa at 1200 UTC. There even appears to be a decent mid-level rotation in the wave's axis. Though it is not unusual to have a strong wave exit this early in June, it is unusual how high in lattitude the 26ºC isotherm is in the eastern Atlantic for this time of year. If strong waves like this keep rolling off the west coast of Africa, fears of an early start to the 2005 Cape Verde season may be realized:

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:41 am

Matt, you and I talked about this a few days ago. Remember the depression that formed from a Cape Verde wave in June 2003? It may indeed occur. I'm waiting to see if Dr. Lyons mentions it on the tropical update.

#3 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:49 am

That's a healthy wave coming off the coast.

#4 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:50 am

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:53 am

Look at all the deep reds in it.. Looks like it could become very healthy if it holds together..

I also think we are all very antsy lol

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:00 am

Geez...

Javlin · #7 Postby **Javlin** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:15 am

Not quite yet I think guys.You have one ULL moving out to the NE and another approaching from the W.Then it is a little moisture out there as opposed to a couple of weeks ago just don't know if enough.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Off topic to this 10' rule in relation to tropical systems I need a memory refreshner Derek.

Scorpion · #8 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:44 am

It'll go poof in the next few hours with the shear and all. :grr:

krysof · #9 Postby **krysof** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:54 am

What you guys say about the wave if it was August?

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 10:42 am

there's no 10 degree rule. You can get development bascially on the equator if there is enough environmental vorticity.

For the Atlantic, the monsoon trough off of Africa is usually near 8N at this time of year. Any CV June development will likely be between 8-11N

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 10:52 am

ANA IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHERE STORM USUALLY FORM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON, BY THE WAY, IT'S VERY UNUSUAL TO SEE A TROPICAL STORM THIS EARLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

hurricanefreak1988 · #12 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 12:31 pm

A Cape Verde storm being the season opener? Who woulda thought? That'll be interesting if it does indeed form.

cyclonaut · #13 Postby **cyclonaut** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 12:56 pm

I think a system east of the islands will be the 1st one of the year.

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:39 pm

Looks very healthy but it will most likely fizzle out once it exits the coast completely....if it were August this would be another story

Windspeed · #15 Postby **Windspeed** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:18 pm

Keep in mind, I was not trying to imply that this particular wave will develop into anything signficant in the context of my original post. Only that I have concerns the Atlantic Basin will experience Cape Verde storms earlier than the average year based on the fact the monsoon trough off of Africa is currently producing strong tropical waves (such as the one at present) and the 26ºC isotherm is at a higher lattitude near the Cape Verde Islands than what is typically observed this early in <b>June</b>. Obviously, the SAL might be a player in this too. A moderate-to-strong SAL could keep early Cape Verde activity in check. Though at present, the SAL seems to be extending east-to-west north of the MDR right now. Therefore, as of right now I would not be surprised if we observe cyclogenesis somewhere SE, S, or SW of the Cape Verdes during the next 3-6 weeks. Even the development of <b>2 or 3 storms before August 1st</b> in the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles would not shock me with the present oceanic heat content that is already there. See the image below:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #16 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:35 pm

Holy mother of god that is a nice looking wave. With banding futures to the southern Quad. Darn if that holds together wow.

storm4u · #17 Postby **storm4u** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:47 pm

If it was 3 months later there would be a big smile on my face!! But its not so there not!!lol The time will come people!!

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:50 pm

If they do form, and become Hurricanes east of the islands, we could even have a long tracked Cape Verde Hurricane in July.

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:54 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:If they do form, and become Hurricanes east of the islands, we could even have a long tracked Cape Verde Hurricane in July.

Early July longtracker hurricane Bertha in 1996.

James · #20 Postby **James** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:31 pm

It has faded a bit, but still has an impressive structure. I can't believe it's been a year since we were doing this last June.

Early start to the Cape Verde season?

Early start to the Cape Verde season?

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