*UPDATED* First Call (accu map) Monday Noreaster

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Starting to feel a bit better about the forecast, I've decided to throw out the NAM solution as the other model runs have been more consistant, so the trend is futher east...

The Breakdown

Coastal to I95- Not much, getting closer to the big cities maybe up to 4"
I95 Cities- ??? area, 4" is almost a lock, but could end up as high as 8"
NW suburbs- Getting close to the sweet spot, I've put in a breif mix so totals close to a foot are possible...
Mts- Bullseye- Up to 18"

[ohiostorm]

Looks better. I agree with this one for the most part.

[Jrodd312]

Good but you should really move the 7-10 to philly and new york because most models suggest them getting a lot of snow.

[krysof]

nearly perfect for now, the 7-10 is approaching nyc and my area is in the 7-10 inch band

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

jrodd312... The cities are bothering me as I said above, I feel that the cities may get 5" but if you head just barely NW it could be as high as 10"... It's going to be close

[krysof]

if a more eastward trend continues, the 10-14 may be nearing Philly and NYC, although that's too extreme right now

[Jrodd312]

jrodd312... The cities are bothering me as I said above, I feel that the cities may get 5" but if you head just barely NW it could be as high as 10"... It's going to be close

Yes thats what is annoying me. Hopefully the trend eastward will continue. And jer is the site gunna be updated soon?

[ohiostorm]

I think the 4 to 7 inch band could be pulled a little farther west more into Ohio. Mets here still confident about 3 to 6 and 4 to 8 inches. Ive heard both.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

ALSO... Southeast New England is another trouble spot a changover to rain is almost guarenteed after a 4" start, but as time goes by a change back to snow is possible with another 6"+ possible... I'm looking into this possibilty as we "speak"

[Jrodd312]

if a more eastward trend continues, the 10-14 may be nearing Philly and NYC, although that's too extreme right now

How the trend is going now i think they will be by tomorrow.

[RestonVA]

I'm in the extreme western part of the county that is just west of DC (the one that is split about 30/60 blue/pink), so I am in the blue part. What are the chances of that dark blue section dropping down closer to where I am?

[krysof]

I agree, the eastward will probably continue and by tomorrow the 10-14 might approach the suburbs of Philly and NYC.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Jrodd... site update will be very late tonight, like 3 am I have to do alot of looking into this southeast NE problem, this includes looking to the past for what happened in other storm, expect a new map on the site if you're going to stay up... If not it will be available for you tomorrow

[krysof]

3 am is tomorrow lol

[Jrodd312]

Jrodd... site update will be very late tonight, like 3 am I have to do alot of looking into this southeast NE problem, this includes looking to the past for what happened in other storm, expect a new map on the site if you're going to stay up... If not it will be available for you tomorrow

Thanks jer sorry if im being a nag about it being updated.

[fasteddy77]

How are all of the models looking now.... Are they all trending for the more easterly offshore pattern?? Are there any models that are still suggesting an more inshore path??

Also, yesterday someone posted at 55% 45% thought on the two different scenerios...

Anyone have a percentage they would like to throw out now??

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

RestonVA... It is very possible, the map sucks in a way because in reality these line will be alot closer together once close to the cities...

NW suburbs of all I95 cities have a great chance of seeing 10" (at least) out of this storm

[krysof]

that was my percentage and now I would say an inland or on the coast track is 20% and an offshore track is 80%, it would be 90-10% but because the Nam is still inland, than i'll keep it 80 to 20.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Eastern track is looking more and more likely...

If I had give ratios East: 75% Inland: 20% Out to Sea: 5%

[Jrodd312]

that was my percentage and now I would say an inland or on the coast track is 20% and an offshore track is 80%, it would be 90-10% but because the Nam is still inland, than i'll keep it 80 to 20.

Just to make sure wut do the two tracks mean. I know inland means rain for big cities. What does an offshore track mean?