2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

BoM with Neutral thru September. Other models like CFSv2, CanSIPS and Euro are not so bullish on a stronger la niña.





http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Kingarabian]

Yeah that's almost a worst case scenario for the Atlantic in terms of hurricane season. Years with cool neutral/weak La Nina can be extremely destructive. Have to hope something like 2016 happens but that does not seem to be likely.

[JetFuel_SE]

BoM with Neutral thru September. Other models like CFSv2, CanSIPS and Euro are not so bullish on a stronger la niña.

https://i.imgur.com/evOdrSR.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/LfZjiQe.jpeg

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The BoM model has a massive warm bias, even more so than the Euro.

[cycloneye]

The CDAS Tropical Tidbits site has niño 3.4 falling below +0.5C.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah that's almost a worst case scenario for the Atlantic in terms of hurricane season. Years with cool neutral/weak La Nina can be extremely destructive. Have to hope something like 2016 happens but that does not seem to be likely.

We're coming off a strong Niño like 2016, but that's about where the similarities end. Obviously the Atlantic is appreciably warmer, but the most noticeable difference within the Pacific is the PDO. Because it was strongly positive in 2016, it helped to suppress much of the first half of the Atlantic season and kept the EPAC active despite the change in ENSO, and probably exacerbated Niño atmospheric lag in other aspects. Right now the PDO is negative and looks to remain that way, which should help this incoming Niña's cause for being more significant than the 2016-17 event.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1785360544213475606

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Another (fake?) wwb by the gfs
https://i.postimg.cc/76yGTsdG/u-anom-30-5-S-5-N.gif

It forecasted a strong WWB about two weeks ago and it ended up trending/verifying much weaker. See below:
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1778101979908124782?t=kx4Vx2heBZig3UmNmpQCxQ&s=19

Given the G(E)FS' track record of amplification bias in the Pacific, it isn't too surprising. I honestly wouldn't put too much stock in this, especially given the continued deterioration of the Niño background state should make it increasingly difficult to get strong, sustained WWBs.

Deja vu
 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1785713381208375515

[Yellow Evan]

GEFS correcting down on the WWB was inevitable but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a factor in regards to this year’s ENSO.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GEFS correcting down on the WWB was inevitable but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a factor in regards to this year’s ENSO.

I wasn't trying to imply it won't, but I don't think a weak WWB would have much of an effect in the grand scheme of things. Since we're transitioning to a Niña atmospheric background state any reprieve in trades would likely be overpowered by recurring surges, and thus would probably only result in a brief warm up that would only temporarily slow progress towards the inevitable, especially at this stage of the game.

[cycloneye]

Those cold waters at subsurface continue to reach the surface. El Niño days are numbered.

[StPeteMike]

Being that we’re a week away from CPC’s update, I would be surprised with the evidence we currently have that they will say we’re in a Weak El Niño. Neutral to Weak La Niña would be expected next Thursday, leaning towards the latter.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Being that we’re a week away from CPC’s update, I would be surprised with the evidence we currently have that they will say we’re in a Weak El Niño. Neutral to Weak La Niña would be expected next Thursday, leaning towards the latter.

It'll be a neutral declaration. Not quite at La Niña yet. Don't think we'll officially get there until later on in the summer.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1786401001333047648

[LarryWx]

 So, FMA RONI just came in at +0.48 vs FMA ONI’s +1.15. That means that the FMA ONI-RONI just hit a new record high of +0.67 breaking the previous record of +0.64 just set in JFM.
So going forward, this even larger discrepancy suggests the increased importance of using RONI instead of ONI to best gauge ENSO’s influence.

[cycloneye]

Euro has moderate la niña for summer and fall.

[MetroMike]

Excuse any ignorance on my part but what is going on with 7 day trend in the Nino region of the Pac?
Seems unexpected or no?

[LarryWx]

Excuse any ignorance on my part but what is going on with 7 day trend in the Nino region of the Pac?
Seems unexpected or no?
https://i.imgur.com/CfjHuiY.png

Seven days is imo too short a period to be significant as far as determining long term trends due to shorter term factors sometimes dominating.

[Kingarabian]

Excuse any ignorance on my part but what is going on with 7 day trend in the Nino region of the Pac?
Seems unexpected or no?
https://i.imgur.com/CfjHuiY.png

Buoys still show some warm to neutral anomalies down to 50 meters. 7 day fluctuations are normal but the general trend is cool neutral before July.

[Kingarabian]

90 day SOI continues to be in the +ENSO range. Will be important for May to shift firmly positive.

[LarryWx]

90 day SOI continues to be in the +ENSO range. Will be important for May to shift firmly positive.

King,
Agreed 100%. May has for awhile been the main month of transition when going from strong or super-Nino to Niña:

2016: April -19; May +3
1998: April -22; May 0
1988: April -3; May +10
1983: April -16; May +6
1973: April -2; May +3

2010 was the main exception on timing in that it already was up to +12 in April. May was +11.

2024: April -6