When will Alberto form?

[Beef Stew]

It may be a little early for this post- but seeing as this is one of the most anticipated seasons in recent memory- I figured I’d go ahead and make it. When do you think Alberto will form, and officially kick-off the 2024 season?

Mods, please make this a poll with the following options:

Before May 1st
May 1-10
May 11-20
May 21-31
June 1-10
June 11-20
June 21-30
July 1st or later

[cycloneye]

Made the poll and put the end of it on April 30th at 1:57 PM EDT. Of course, if something forms before April 30th, the poll closes for voting.

[StPeteMike]

Definitely will be surprise to not see a storm before June. Something in the Caribbean and short-lived, around 60 mph max winds.

[Hurricane2022]

I think that Alberto will form around May 15 - 25, so I voted for 11 - 20.

[AnnularCane]

I went with May 11-20. I'm thinking we might have a May storm this year...although to be perfectly honest I don't really know when. In general I'm thinking mid to late May.

[tolakram]

I went with 11-20 but I really don't no clue either. Would not be totally surprised to see nothing until July but it just seems like we should see early activity this year.

[chaser1]

Well, I was so torn between the two early May options that it occurred to me that must mean there's gonna have to be a BOGO involved. Therefore, I opted for Alberto to form just east of Brownsville on May 10, just a couple days before a Beryl of fun occurs east of N. Florida. Thereafter, the beginning of a nearly 2-month lull..... but I digress.

[AnnularCane]

Starting to think I went too early.

[StPeteMike]

Starting to think I went too early.

Got 9 days left but yeah, models don’t show the 11-20 having a chance. Maybe the last few days of May?

[Sciencerocks]

Second week of June

[Category5Kaiju]

Very very bold take (don't take it seriously, but at the same time who knows?)

Given this season doesn't seem interested in producing early season slop and given some of the past historic seasons' behaviors, here's my two cents. Alberto will form in late June/early July but also end up at a Category 3+ Caribbean cruising beast that is then talked about by wx enthusiasts for ages

[kevin]

Very very bold take (don't take it seriously, but at the same time who knows?)

Given this season doesn't seem interested in producing early season slop and given some of the past historic seasons' behaviors, here's my two cents. Alberto will form in late June/early July but also end up at a Category 3+ Caribbean cruising beast that is then talked about by wx enthusiasts for ages

This honestly isn't that unreasonable considering the extreme MDR SSTs at the moment. Even if Alberto becomes a sheared TS in the subtropics, I do think one of the early-named storms this year will be a MH (like Dennis or Emily in 2005).

[Sciencerocks]

Very very bold take (don't take it seriously, but at the same time who knows?)

Given this season doesn't seem interested in producing early season slop and given some of the past historic seasons' behaviors, here's my two cents. Alberto will form in late June/early July but also end up at a Category 3+ Caribbean cruising beast that is then talked about by wx enthusiasts for ages

Another late June or early July, Dennis or Emily wouldn't surprise me with this set up.

[chaser1]

Very very bold take (don't take it seriously, but at the same time who knows?)

Given this season doesn't seem interested in producing early season slop and given some of the past historic seasons' behaviors, here's my two cents. Alberto will form in late June/early July but also end up at a Category 3+ Caribbean cruising beast that is then talked about by wx enthusiasts for ages

Looks to me that THIS forecast is looking pretty good atm. Hard to know regarding future overall conditions but there's a far better chance of the intraseasonal conditions having changed by early July and having a very bonified TS or Hurricane as a result (as opposed to slop).