Texas Summer 2022
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Closer to Carla in 1961, look at the size of the wind field!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
weatherdude1108 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:
Yeah, I can see that. But we need the moisture so bad here in central Texas. My eyes were drawn to the blues and greens.
Oh for sure! It’s beautiful to see that
I realized I mistakenly put the 6 to 10 day precip map twice.
I just changed it to 8 to 14.
It’s all good! I knew what you meant. I wasn’t gonna say anything lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
weatherdude1108 wrote:The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png
The stuff in the gulf looks bogus to me from the GFS. No doubt a surge of moisture will come but it has been modelcaning South American spinups all week from the East coast to MX.
Now the waves off Africa are real on the Euro and more in line with what is out there.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Ntxw wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png
The stuff in the gulf looks bogus to me from the GFS. No doubt a surge of moisture will come but it has been modelcaning South American spinups all week from the East coast to MX.
Now the waves off Africa are real on the Euro and more in line with what is out there.
Yep! That’s what has my interest. Steering looks scary imo.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina
Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina
Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.
We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina
Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.
We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite
Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.
We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite
Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.
I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:
We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite
Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.
I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.
Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place I'm not even sure that storm is real
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.
I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.
Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place I'm not even sure that storm is real
The concern always is if the open Atlantic/East coast start seeing tropical activity. It's almost surefire to put us in subsidence which is a drying trend.
Also we will be moving to the Fall thread next week!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Speaking of Hurricanes, the ensembles and some runs of the OPs that develop the Atlantic system pulls the trough east from the Aleutians-GOA to Western NW North America. That'll bring the ridge back into the middle of the US.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Received a couple of heavier showers tonight with random pop-ups in my area, just about stationary where they form and fizzle out.
Got between 0.25" and 0.5" so far. There is an Areal Flood Advisory just to my north. Stationary cell. I feel fortunate!
Update: Round 3! Steady hard rain. Sweet spot!
I'll check total in the morning.
Got between 0.25" and 0.5" so far. There is an Areal Flood Advisory just to my north. Stationary cell. I feel fortunate!
Update: Round 3! Steady hard rain. Sweet spot!
I'll check total in the morning.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
I got 3" last night!!
Highly localized over Cedar Park/far north Austin. Kept redeveloping right over us!
Most of it soaked in. And this isn't even the main event! Very thankful!
Highly localized over Cedar Park/far north Austin. Kept redeveloping right over us!
Most of it soaked in. And this isn't even the main event! Very thankful!
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.
Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place I'm not even sure that storm is real
The concern always is if the open Atlantic/East coast start seeing tropical activity. It's almost surefire to put us in subsidence which is a drying trend.
Also we will be moving to the Fall thread next week!
I don’t see that happening, at least not anytime real soon. Ridging looks pretty stout along the EC. I’m actually favoring a w or wsw bend with 91L through either the northern Caribbean or SFL and probably a splashdown into the Gulf.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Surprise severe storm just NE of Norman, OK
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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