Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

This thread came a bit late, likely because of the amazing Summer so far. With the La Nina Watch and the expectation of the development of La Nina once again this winter, I decided to create this thread and thought I'd share my analog years for what I think we might see this upcoming winter.

Here's the map showing the temperature anomalies for what my analogs are thinking for DJF.



Most of these years are double dip La Nina where we saw a sharp decay during the spring/early summer. 1961/62 weren't La Nina, but followed a similar pattern of going from negative neutral to near even or slightly positive neutral and then back to negative neutral (Or in this case La Nina). I especially like 1961 as an analog as it is probably the only one I have that had the Northern Plains drought without one coexisting in the Central and Southern Plains. I think we will see both extremes again this winter, which is typical of La Nina, though I certainly wouldn't expect anything on par with last year. I do think that if the La Nina stays weak or even fails and we stay in negative neutral then 1961 becomes much more of an analog and in that case get ready for the cold.

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/mFKWkZT/4-AD53-E73-D9-F6-4227-9531-41-D9-F73-D4345.jpg [/url]

I’m thinking they are not fooled from what happened last year.

[captainbarbossa19]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/mFKWkZT/4-AD53-E73-D9-F6-4227-9531-41-D9-F73-D4345.jpg [/url]

I’m thinking they are not fooled from what happened last year.

Right. They predicted a warm February last winter.

Reality:

[TheProfessor]

With how Nino 1+2 are playing out I do think we need to watch for another winter similar to 2011-12. Now obviously Nino 1+2 can change very quickly and in fact the CFS has a basin wide Nina come winter, however, it does look like the Pacific may be shaping up for a +PDO signature, which we didn't get even that winter.

Now I want to talk about why a 2011-12 winter wouldn't necessarily be horrible for Texas and the Southern Plains. For the most part it was a warm and wet winter in DFW, very strong El Nino like. Not much winter weather there that year, but we had some close calls iirc. I do remember our west Texas friends cashing in though. Obviously having a wet winter is a huge benefit with preventing drought, especially during a La Nina. The second advantage is that no winter is alike. If we can truly get a warm PDO going with warm waters off the California coast, the Southern Plains could be in a favorable spots for ridge/trough patterns throughout the winter. That means those 2011-12 cold rain events turn into ice(bleh) and snow events and it gives our central and south Texas friends more of a chance. So I certainly wouldn't write off a winter like 2011-12 being fun.

(There's also talks amongst other forums that there may be more elements of 2010-11 involved as well so you can imagine something like that but with a more active subtropical jet lol.).

[Ntxw]

With how Nino 1+2 are playing out I do think we need to watch for another winter similar to 2011-12. Now obviously Nino 1+2 can change very quickly and in fact the CFS has a basin wide Nina come winter, however, it does look like the Pacific may be shaping up for a +PDO signature, which we didn't get even that winter.

Now I want to talk about why a 2011-12 winter wouldn't necessarily be horrible for Texas and the Southern Plains. For the most part it was a warm and wet winter in DFW, very strong El Nino like. Not much winter weather there that year, but we had some close calls iirc. I do remember our west Texas friends cashing in though. Obviously having a wet winter is a huge benefit with preventing drought, especially during a La Nina. The second advantage is that no winter is alike. If we can truly get a warm PDO going with warm waters off the California coast, the Southern Plains could be in a favorable spots for ridge/trough patterns throughout the winter. That means those 2011-12 cold rain events turn into ice(bleh) and snow events and it gives our central and south Texas friends more of a chance. So I certainly wouldn't write off a winter like 2011-12 being fun.

(There's also talks amongst other forums that there may be more elements of 2010-11 involved as well so you can imagine something like that but with a more active subtropical jet lol.).

The biggest wildcard is the high latitude blocking which is very unpredictable until way closer in. 2021 just 'feels' like the year for the southern plains/central plains. Lots of cool anomalies and weaknesses. February was a byproduct of that weakness. Sea Ice this year while low, the pattern for retention is some of the best. All different elements to consider.

[TheProfessor]

With how Nino 1+2 are playing out I do think we need to watch for another winter similar to 2011-12. Now obviously Nino 1+2 can change very quickly and in fact the CFS has a basin wide Nina come winter, however, it does look like the Pacific may be shaping up for a +PDO signature, which we didn't get even that winter.

Now I want to talk about why a 2011-12 winter wouldn't necessarily be horrible for Texas and the Southern Plains. For the most part it was a warm and wet winter in DFW, very strong El Nino like. Not much winter weather there that year, but we had some close calls iirc. I do remember our west Texas friends cashing in though. Obviously having a wet winter is a huge benefit with preventing drought, especially during a La Nina. The second advantage is that no winter is alike. If we can truly get a warm PDO going with warm waters off the California coast, the Southern Plains could be in a favorable spots for ridge/trough patterns throughout the winter. That means those 2011-12 cold rain events turn into ice(bleh) and snow events and it gives our central and south Texas friends more of a chance. So I certainly wouldn't write off a winter like 2011-12 being fun.

(There's also talks amongst other forums that there may be more elements of 2010-11 involved as well so you can imagine something like that but with a more active subtropical jet lol.).

The biggest wildcard is the high latitude blocking which is very unpredictable until way closer in. 2021 just 'feels' like the year for the southern plains/central plains. Lots of cool anomalies and weaknesses. February was a byproduct of that weakness. Sea Ice this year while low, the pattern for retention is some of the best. All different elements to consider.

Yep and that's kind of where that 2010-11 talk is coming in with the high latitude blocking. It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.

[SoupBone]

Well hey guys, is it Fall yet?

[captainbarbossa19]

Well hey guys, is it Fall yet?

It's still hot and there's a possibly a hurricane on its way. Of course, that would be fall weather wouldn't it?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great post at the beginning of this thread. La nina has now become my favorite, over el nino, for winter time weather. The double dip la nina is interesting to investigate. Im looking at different variations myself. Currently I'm investigating what type of weather comes when you have a decaying la nina. This past spring was a decaying nina and it brought about some interesting weather for the southern plains. Will keep you guys updated.

I moved to Denver in May, but will still be active in the Texas forum. One question for you guys with ample resources. Where can i find PNA data? I'm trying to see if there is correlation between the PNA and snow here in the Denver/Rocky Mountain area. I'm going to start a winter thread for the region as well.

[Iceresistance]

Great post at the beginning of this thread. La nina has now become my favorite, over el nino, for winter time weather. The double dip la nina is interesting to investigate. Im looking at different variations myself. Currently I'm investigating what type of weather comes when you have a decaying la nina. This past spring was a decaying nina and it brought about some interesting weather for the southern plains. Will keep you guys updated.

I moved to Denver in May, but will still be active in the Texas forum. One question for you guys with ample resources. Where can i find PNA data? I'm trying to see if there is correlation between the PNA and snow here in the Denver/Rocky Mountain area. I'm going to start a winter thread for the region as well.

Here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great post at the beginning of this thread. La nina has now become my favorite, over el nino, for winter time weather. The double dip la nina is interesting to investigate. Im looking at different variations myself. Currently I'm investigating what type of weather comes when you have a decaying la nina. This past spring was a decaying nina and it brought about some interesting weather for the southern plains. Will keep you guys updated.

I moved to Denver in May, but will still be active in the Texas forum. One question for you guys with ample resources. Where can i find PNA data? I'm trying to see if there is correlation between the PNA and snow here in the Denver/Rocky Mountain area. I'm going to start a winter thread for the region as well.

Here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[Portastorm]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina "snow/ice/cold" events this coming winter I think.

[Tireman4]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina events this coming winter I think.

Porta, bite your tongue. I love winter. I love snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina events this coming winter I think.

Porta, bite your tongue. I love winter. I love snow.

It is absolutely terrible the heartache that the winter storm brought to so many people, but this just shows how our infrastructure and citizens need to be prepared for these possibilities. I feel much of the heartache was very avoidable, since temps and weather like what occurred during the storm, has happened before. I don't think we should actually feel guilty for the excitement of this weather, but more upset how it was handled.

[Tireman4]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina events this coming winter I think.

Porta, bite your tongue. I love winter. I love snow.

It is absolutely terrible the heartache that the winter storm brought to so many people, but this just shows how our infrastructure and citizens need to be prepared for these possibilities. I feel much of the heartache was very avoidable, since temps and weather like what occurred during the storm, has happened before. I don't think we should actually feel guilty for the excitement of this weather, but more upset how it was handled.

I agree. 100 percent.

[Iceresistance]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina events this coming winter I think.

Porta, bite your tongue. I love winter. I love snow.

I do liked the snow & cold, but last winter, it was no longer fun . . .

It's all fun & games until the extreme cold & snow won't go away . . .

[AubreyStorm]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina "snow/ice/cold" events this coming winter I think.

I remember that in Frisco, Denton TEXAS.

“will initiate rotating outages, turning off power to neighborhoods for about 15 to 30 minutes at a time“

Winter storm could bring rotating power outages to North Texas through Tuesday

The short, controlled outages will begin as early as Sunday night if demand outpaces supply.

[hriverajr]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina "snow/ice/cold" events this coming winter I think.

Actually Portastorm, the snow capital would now be Del Rio.

[vbhoutex]

This may shock you all ... but after last winter and the Snowpocalypse event in mid February, my appetite and desire for big winter storms in Texas has diminished. Maybe it had something to do with not having water for seven days or the supply/food shortages which followed ... I don't know. I won't mind a few inches of snow here and there but that's about it. Besides, Austin has become the Snow Capital of Texas.

If those bathtub temps continue in the waters of the North Pacific, we're going to have huge high pressure building once again and we could see more major Nina "snow/ice/cold" events this coming winter I think.

Actually Portastorm, the snow capital would now be Del Rio.

Like you Porta I have had enough for a while!! Trying to stay unpolitical, since I am the owner of S2K, I want all of the infrastructure improvements needed completed before we go through another February surprise!!