EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Here is the advertised biggie by the models. Let's see how much ACE units it gets to be well over 300.

EP, 99, 2018101612, , BEST, 0, 137N, 866W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
EP, 99, 2018101618, , BEST, 0, 129N, 873W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
EP, 99, 2018101700, , BEST, 0, 123N, 882W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
EP, 99, 2018101706, , BEST, 0, 122N, 894W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1000, 150, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS041, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041, SPAWNINVEST, ep772018 to ep992018,
EP, 99, 2018101712, , BEST, 0, 122N, 905W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,

[TheStormExpert]

This will likely be a yet another major for this basin, though I’m not sure it’ll be much of a significant threat to the Baja Peninsula or Mexico. Global models are still all over the place!

[SootyTern]

Is this from the remnants of 94L crossing over?

[cycloneye]

Is this from the remnants of 94L crossing over?

That is it.

[cycloneye]

It would be great if recon goes to this system like they did with Patricia but I guess it depends on resources or is a threat to land.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO:

Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that an
elongated low pressure system has developed about 100 miles south of
Guatemala. Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or a
tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or two. The
system is forecast to moves generally toward the west-northwest at
10 to 15 mph, near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Ntxw]

According to the SHIPS forecast, if it can avoid any interaction with land the shear forecast is very favorable starting in 24 hours. About as good as Walaka had in the CP.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the SHIP first run.Also,it will move thru very warm waters and looks like Tara didn't have an effect to upwell the waters being so small.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992018 10/17/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 44 50 59 66 74 78 78 76
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 44 50 59 66 74 78 78 76
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 49 53 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 17 11 1 3 6 6 8 11 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 4 2 2 -1 0 -3 -5 2
SHEAR DIR 35 29 33 40 23 17 6 69 153 158 189 215 334
SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.5 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.2 29.9 30.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 148 145 148 150 165 169 166 157 163 163
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -52.8 -53.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 8 5 9 7 9 7
700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 83 81 81 81 81 82 81 83 77 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 14 15 15 14 17 18 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 74 78 82 78 63 57 27 21 31 30 26 14 2
200 MB DIV 83 82 109 120 105 117 73 77 63 87 86 73 2
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 1 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -1
LAND (KM) 163 178 172 177 173 184 198 73 32 30 56 113 176
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.1 91.4 91.8 92.2 93.4 95.1 97.2 99.2 101.2 103.3 105.0 106.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 4 5 8 11 11 11 10 10 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 10 16 20 17 21 16 24 24

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 10. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 19. 25. 34. 41. 49. 53. 53. 51.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 90.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/17/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -3.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 20.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 5.2% 29.8% 27.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%
Consensus: 0.1% 7.0% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 7.0% 16.8% 9.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/17/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

As I said in above post about the sst's,they are plenty warm and there is no cool spot that tiny TS Tara left so Vicente will have good fuel to work with.

[NotSparta]

Here is the text of the SHIP first run.Also,it will move thru very warm waters and looks like Tara didn't have an effect to upwell the waters being so small.

* snip

Looks a bit close to land, but otherwise quite favorable.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS run has Vicente moving close to Mexican coast than past runs and that is why it not gets very strong.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that an
elongated low pressure system is located about 100 miles south of
the Mexico-Guatemala border. Although associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next
day or two. The system is forecast to move generally toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days, near or
just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is still unclear what track Vicente will take,if is close or away from the Mexican coast and if it goes to Los Cabos/BCS or Sinaloa.

[Ntxw]

Is still unclear what track Vicente will take,if is close or away from the Mexican coast and if it goes to Los Cabos/BCS or Sinaloa.

https://i.imgur.com/gD3jBH5.png

I think part of the problem is the models are trying to develop what is left from the crossover of ex-94L as the center instead of the area further southeast. We'll have to wait and see which takes the lead.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS run has Vicente moving close to Mexican coast than past runs and that is why it not gets very strong.

https://i.imgur.com/rahibMI.gif

Possible reason why it keeps it rather weak. 12z GFS FV3 makes it a major. If there's no shear, I'm expecting anything that develop to be a powerful system.

[cycloneye]

Visible satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure
located just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is slowly becoming
better defined, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is still disorganized. Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or two. The
system is forecast to move generally toward the west-northwest at 10
to 15 mph for the next several days, near or just offshore the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA since 1430z
WTPN21 PHNC 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 89.2W TO 13.6N 96.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 90.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.2N 90.5W, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR. A
171043Z 89GHZ NOAA 19 MHS MICROWAVE PASS, CORROBORATED BY EIR
IMAGES, DEPICT A VERY EXPOSED, VERY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE AND CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181430Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 14.1°N 95.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[cycloneye]

Models are in consensus about a track towards Los Cabos/BCS to Sinaloa as a Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in
organization overnight. However, environmental conditions appear
conducive for development once the system moves west of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form during the next day or two. The low is forecast to move
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph for the next several
days, near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.