ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
I noticed an interesting correlation. CMC has the surface low starting to spin up at about 108 hrs in the Mid Carib and at the same time and location GFS is developing a opportune PV area. It looks like the two features coincide and track west through the Yucatan Channel.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looking at the GFS and the Euro makes me think that they are both anticipating the break neck forward speed to continue and that is what leads it not to develop. At its current pace I have a hard time seeing it being able to consolidate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
It looks like a Caribbean cruiser.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The CMC has dropped its track south from the earlier Miami landfall. I doubt 92L will play dead all the way to Mexico but that seems to be the landfall range Mexico to Miami.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
that is boldAutoPenalti wrote:Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12Z UKMET with weak development as it moves across the Caribbean
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
0z GFS still POOFS 92L right before the Leewards and leaves just a trace of vorticity heading into the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0z Euro lock step with 0z GFS. Spits out weak sauce post Leewards
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
00Z UKMET continues with some weak development as it goes through the Lesser Antilles:
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
northjaxpro wrote:EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L
The NHC did not mention any problems with shear in their latest two and they normally do if shear is in the forecast ahead of a system they are monitoring.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
"Could easily go north or south of Hispaniola"
Or right over it, significantly limiting development or shredding it if there is any development prior to it arrival. It's like threading the needle.
Or right over it, significantly limiting development or shredding it if there is any development prior to it arrival. It's like threading the needle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
GeneratorPower wrote:Could easily go north or south of Hispaniola
Or crash right into it and get shredded. Yeah. let's go with that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.
A Wilma-esque track in mid-September? The most similar storm to Wilma (Mitch) was even later in the year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Wow, literally right over the shredder.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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TCVN is a weighted averaged
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