ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
According to the ECMWF the "rings" are a little closer together in the direction of motion near landfall.
Doesn't effect track as much as intensity at that latitude though.
Doesn't effect track as much as intensity at that latitude though.
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- Happy Pelican
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
The GFS has me nervous with its latest run. Banking the storm left into the mid-Atlantic could be a disaster for the Jersey shore. My next door neighbors house has been up in the air on cribbing for over a year (contractor took off) along with so many other homes that are still rebuilding from Sandy. Any flooding could set our (already failed) recovery back even further. I know it's only one run but I def have some ptsd from Sandy.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
I wonder if all these vorticities between TD 8 & TD 9 have been giving the models a fit with the forecast track & movement.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
GFS 12Z run
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
12Z HWRF
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
18Z GFS
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
12Z Euro
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- crownweather
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
Is there any word on how good (or bad) the HRRR model is with tropical cyclones after the recent upgrade? I know previous versions were pretty bad with TC intensification (not as bad as the 4 km NAM, but bad). Been looking at the HRRR for short term trends to look for and it has been consistently forecasting Hermine to ramp up over the next 12-18 hours. I'm skeptical on its output, but at the same time....I wonder.
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/yhrrr.php
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/yhrrr.php
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Rob Lightbown
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
Models have shifted back to the east now. Now keeping it near the coastline
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
Alyono wrote:Models have shifted back to the east now. Now keeping it near the coastline
are you referring to the southeast coast? what about gulf coast landfall?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
psyclone wrote:Alyono wrote:Models have shifted back to the east now. Now keeping it near the coastline
are you referring to the southeast coast? what about gulf coast landfall?
southeast coast
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
0Z EURO is running. Can someone with access to the full run tell me if it still moves through here between 24 and 48 hours?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
SeGaBob wrote:0Z EURO is running. Can someone with access to the full run tell me if it still moves through here between 24 and 48 hours?
Better late then never.
0Z Euro run
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
0Z GFS
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
0Z HWRF
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M a r k
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- terrapintransit
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
Looks kind of like it wants to pull an 72' Agnus and hang out spinning off the mid atlantic coast. May be too far out though to cause the flooding in Pa that Angus caused
tolakram wrote:0Z HWRF
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/Yk3ssBe.gif[/img]
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Aaron
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
18Z GFS
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models
terrapintransit wrote:Looks kind of like it wants to pull an 72' Agnus and hang out spinning off the mid atlantic coast. May be too far out though to cause the flooding in Pa that Angus causedtolakram wrote:0Z HWRF
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/Yk3ssBe.gif[/img]
better stalling offshore than over central PA like Agnes
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