jlauderdal wrote:whatever happened with the gfs to south florida solution...
As 57 implied, it wasn't as far fetched as you may think in retrospect. Also, it wasn't just the GFS as two Euro runs threatened S FL (see below) in addition to several CMC runs and many NAVGEM runs. In retrospect it does look like the GFS didn't do well in the WC for the 2nd Oct. in a row. Currently, there is what appears to be some sort of very weak vortex near or just E/NE of far NE Belize. The major model runs that threatened S FL, including the two Euro of 8-8.5 days ago and NAVGEM runs for several days later, had a vortex just east of the aforementioned suspected very weak vortex (a little out into the Gulf of Honduras) and really nothing in the Bay of Capeche to compete with it in those runs. Then they took it N and then NE near or just south of far S FL below the SE US high. Here are days 8 and 10 of the 0Z Euro run from 10/10, showing the NW Carib low strengthen to a 999 TS moving NE to far W Cuba:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_11.png
Here is day 10 from the 12Z Euro of 10/9, with a threatening 1004 TS at the NE tip of the Yucatan that was then moving northward and likely IMO about to turn NE toward below that SE high:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=692