ATL: INVEST 90L

[jinftl]

Wet week ahead for sure...not that we need another drop of rain in part of Broward County after today


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 525 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
AT MUVICO/LOWES PLAZA SHERIDAN OFF RAMP AT I-75. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WITH SEVERAL SMALL VEHICLES UNDER WATER AND STRANDED. APPROXIMATELY 2.5
FEET OF WATER ON THE OFF RAMP. THE GENERAL PUBLIC ALSO REPORTED FLOODED
WATER UP TO CAR DOORS IN THE PEMBROKE PINES AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...DAVIE...
MIRAMAR...PEMBROKE PINES...COOPER CITY...INTERSECTION I-75 AND
GRIFFIN ROAD...INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...MIRAMAR PARKWAY
AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE...NORTH PERRY AIRPORT...NOVA SOUTHEASTERN
UNIVERSITY...PINES BLVD AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE AND SOUTHWEST RANCHES.


FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 555 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN FROM THE NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LAST
1.5 HOURS. AN OFF DUTY METEOROLOGIST ALSO REPORTED ALONG DYKES ROAD THE
RETENTION PONDS WERE APPROACHING BANK FULL.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE DIMINISHED...AND DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

That is some deep convection with very cold cloud tops over the Yucatan:

[tropicwatch]

I just saw the blow up of showers over Yucatan. Not a good time to be vacationing in that neck of the woods.

[Alyono]

surprised they went down to zero with the models showing the low starting to become better defined by this time Monday

[cycloneye]

surprised they went down to zero with the models showing the low starting to become better defined by this time Monday

Maybe they deactivate 90L to open 91L in another position?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Quite possible. Maybe 91L is that thunder-plume.

[Hurricaneman]

0 percent the next 48 hrs because A the models don't do much before 48hrs and the area that looks interesting is over land in the Yucatan

[TheStormExpert]

0% chance of development into Tropical Cyclone through Monday 8pm kind of seems reasonable. I think if it tries to develop into anything it would start to really happen on Tuesday. But who knows what will happen with this mess.

[RL3AO]

surprised they went down to zero with the models showing the low starting to become better defined by this time Monday

I'd love to see what the 5-day outlook out be on this.

[cycloneye]

Yucatan convection on radar.



http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=16

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

No mention in the TWO anymore as of 2am.

[NDG]

Tuesday/Wednesday time frame is when we should see the low pressure finally pull out of the Yucatan peninsula. It should have at least 48 hrs over the SE GOM to organize some before coming ashore near the Tampa Bay Area, according to the latest model runs.
Latest GFS (0z run) show somewhat lesser windshear and tracking over the warm loop current making the possibilities of developing into a tropical storm higher, IMO.

Edit: added 0z GFS windshear forecast:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Hurricane Andrew]

Interesting, now back to 10%.

[NDG]

First vis sat pix of the day of the area of disturbed wx in the NW Caribbean and BOC.
Lowest pressures are still found over the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.

[cycloneye]

But look what ATCF just did. We may see 91L soon.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306021130
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Hurricane Andrew]

That is my guess too. 90L is still in the BOC, no?

(Edit: Was)

[NDG]

I guess 90L was the old vorticity of Barbara and now they probably want to start running the models on the vorticity over the Yucatan P.

[MiamiensisWx]

Good Area Forecast Discussion by NWS Miami:

DISCUSSION...
A MONSOON TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN COMBINED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS
STILL HAS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SPINNING OFF A LOW OFF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A LITTLE WEAKER LOW AND IS ABOUT 6-HOURS FASTER
THAN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/00Z
ECMWF...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE
ECMWF. MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK 50-70 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK. SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN EVERY DAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AREA-WIDE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SYSTEM
BECOMES...HOW CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AFFECTS THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT OVER THE REGION...AND WHERE THE SYSTEM FINALLY TRACKS.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 5-10
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ON TOP OF THE
HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD CONCEIVABLY RECEIVE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SO THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...LIGHT FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND CONVERGENT BANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY...WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
850MB CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION.
ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON MONDAY...WITH AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE FLOODING AS WELL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA ON MONDAY...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULLING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION. A
500MB TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION...ADDING TO THE LIFT
OVER THE REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND POSSIBLY SLOWLY
DEVELOP AS IT DOES SO IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. STEADIER AREA-WIDE
HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS...AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE CONTINUES ALOFT. GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 30-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2.5
INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND EVEN EMBEDDED
TROPICAL MINI SUPERCELLS RACING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MID LEVEL
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. A MORE TYPICAL WET SEASON PATTERN MAY THEN FINALLY PREVAIL
ON SATURDAY.

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