Post-Sandy Nor'easter - November 7-8

[CrazyC83]

Some models even suggest this might go tropical? They do develop a warm core...

[wxman57]

Some models even suggest this might go tropical? They do develop a warm core...

No way - it's a frontal low all the way. This isn't a tropical cyclone.

[bzukajo]

Thank you for starting this thread. I have family on the ground in Rye, on the sound. I have been relaying information. They are still without power and I am sure this storm is going to make getting that power restored all that much more difficult.

[CrazyC83]

If this threatens to become tropical, it moves there, but otherwise this is a more suitable location.

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion about the Nor'easter by Dr Jeff Masters.

An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.

[OuterBanker]

FYI, local (Hampton Roads) mets downplaying this. State that in no way will this be like Sandy. Just a normal Nor’ Easter which is fairly common. Gusts to 40 maybe. Granted, it won’t develop as much until north of us. But, I think they are taking a little too lightly here. One note, the state has been frantically building the dune lines in Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil Hills (Outer Banks towns) which Sandy flattened and caused widespread saltwater flooding between the highways in both towns.

[wxman57]

MDL website indicates a surge of between 3 and 4 ft along the NJ coast and north into The Battery. That, combined with normal tides, puts the water levels up to nearly 8 ft above mean lower low water. That's well below Sandy's levels, but the coast has no protection now.

[CrazyC83]

From the Hurricane Hunters FB page:

Our weather heroes are ramping up to fly into the Nor'Easter tomorrow. Stay tuned to see read how it went.

[CrazyC83]

For non-tropical cyclones, I wonder what header is used for Recon obs? URNT15?

[CrazyC83]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051531
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST MON 05 NOVEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE:1. ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS;
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A65/ DROP 9 (28.7N 76.6W)/ 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01WSA TRACK65
C. 06/1845Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/0200Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
$$
JWP

[OuterBanker]

Interesting, from that posting it looks like they expect to be east of Cocoa Beach and ssw of Hatteras at 0Z on the 7th (7 pm est Tuesday night).

Also, after Issac and Sandy Euro is King! (Not a political statement )

[brunota2003]

For non-tropical cyclones, I wonder what header is used for Recon obs? URNT15?

It should still come in on the same headers, except RECCOs will be under non-tropical, instead of tropical They typically fly during the winter, dropping dropsondes and buoys. Nothing unusual about that (for anyone who may be wondering). They'll be tasked to Hawaii over the course of the winter on occasion, as well.

[bzukajo]

Channel 7 ABC meteorologist in NYC reported on the noon broadcast that there could be 70 MPH wind gusts around Long Island Sound and NJ from this storm. This raised more than my eyebrow. I certainly hope this is NOT the case. These poor people are still in the thick of the destruction from the last storm.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm getting confused......

12Z Euro even stronger than 00Z - 40-50 kt winds (with higher gusts) into coastal NJ and Long Island Wednesday afternoon/evening. Could cause tides 3-4 ft above normal and additional power outages over a large area.

That would be a surge of about 8 feet into the Battery?

No, no, no. The wind direction would be from the NE-ENE not SE-SSE. It would pile water up north of western Long Island, but not from the south into The Battery. Could definitely cause additional damage to power lines from southern Maryland through Long Island to eastern MA.

MDL website indicates a surge of between 3 and 4 ft along the NJ coast and north into The Battery. That, combined with normal tides, puts the water levels up to nearly 8 ft above mean lower low water. That's well below Sandy's levels, but the coast has no protection now.

(image deleted)

I wonder if Recon will fly into this?

nope, its not tropical

From the Hurricane Hunters FB page:

Our weather heroes are ramping up to fly into the Nor'Easter tomorrow. Stay tuned to see read how it went.

What's happening? Is this thing changing structure? Or is it developing faster and stronger than expected?

[brunota2003]

Recon flies into potentially dangerous winter storms to gather data to help the models out. They do it every winter, just usually no one is around to see that. Generally, they fly into and ahead of storms in the Pacific, dropping dropsondes and buoys out ahead of them, but they also occasionally get tasked to fly Nor' Easters as well.

Nothing out of the ordinary with them having a winter tasking mission.

[wxman57]

I'm getting confused......

What's happening? Is this thing changing structure? Or is it developing faster and stronger than expected?

There is no storm yet. It's going to develop along the cold front off the Carolinas tomorrow night then track up the east coast. It's a nor'easter, it's not a tropical disturbance that's developing. As stated above, recon often flies into these winter storms to gather data.

[WeatherGuesser]

^^^ Yeah, that's fine, but in your two posts I quoted, first you said no surge towards the Battery, and in the next you say surge towards the Battery.

[WeatherGuesser]

New Jersey has begun issuing evacuation orders:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-575 ... -ne-storm/

[wxman57]

^^^ Yeah, that's fine, but in your two posts I quoted, first you said no surge towards the Battery, and in the next you say surge towards the Battery.

My post said that the surge into the Battery wouldn't come from the south, as with Sandy - " It would pile water up north of western Long Island, but not from the south into The Battery." That doesn't mean there would be no surge into The Battery, just that it wouldn't be impacted directly from the south.

Some good news is that recent model runs take the low center a bit farther offshore, dropping the projected wind speeds along the coast to 30-40 mph with gusts 50-60 mph. The bad news is that the air on the coast will be colder, with mixed precip (maybe mostly snow).

[Sanibel]

The Low seems not to be dipping as low into the SE coast as predicted. They are still saying only 45mph gusts on TWC.