EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Reweakened with the 11pm advisory. Back to 40 kts.

You mean 35 knts, right.

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...KRISTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 117.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KRISTY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY WILL STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

KRISTY HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK AND
ADT CI NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...AND
THIS SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE
STORM CIRCULATION SHOULD ACCELERATE NOW THAT KRISTY HAS REACHED 23C
WATERS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
KRISTY EXPECTED TO BE A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.

THE CENTER OF KRISTY MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
315/08. AS THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES ON SUNDAY...A SHIFT IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE TRACK
TO BEND NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST AFTER 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 24.1N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 24.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 25.8N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 26.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[greenkat]

Reweakened with the 11pm advisory. Back to 40 kts.

You mean 35 knts, right.

Oops! Yes, sorry.

[greenkat]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...KRISTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 117.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KRISTY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KRISTY WILL STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

KRISTY HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK AND
ADT CI NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...AND
THIS SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE
STORM CIRCULATION SHOULD ACCELERATE NOW THAT KRISTY HAS REACHED 23C
WATERS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
KRISTY EXPECTED TO BE A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.

THE CENTER OF KRISTY MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
315/08. AS THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES ON SUNDAY...A SHIFT IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE TRACK
TO BEND NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST AFTER 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 24.1N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 24.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 25.8N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 26.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

It's always a duel between you & cycloneye, isn't it?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Kirsty just refuses to weaken, now sitting over 22 degree SSTs


...KRISTY STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...

[AnnularCane]

Stubborn little thing. I like this one!

[Yellow Evan]

Kristy just wont die.

[Yellow Evan]

still a little bit of convection left.

[cycloneye]

By to Kristy at 18z Best Track.


EP, 11, 2012091618, , BEST, 0, 248N, 1183W, 30, 1007, TD

[Yellow Evan]

So, Kristy weakened at last.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KRISTY HAS
DECAYED RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH JUST A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB. RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES 22C
WATER...AND MOVES FARTHER INTO A STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS.
KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW MONDAY MORNING...AND
DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. KRISTY IS MOVING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
EAST...AND A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT KRISTY WILL BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 25.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 25.7N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 26.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 27.0N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT
30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. KRISTY SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12H OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN OVER COLD WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6...ALTHOUGH A SHORTER TERM
MOTION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION TURNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED SOLELY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS A BIT WEST OF THAT AID.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 25.3N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 25.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Next adv will be it's last probs.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY DISSIPATED SEVERAL HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...A 0448 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED STILL SHOWED A SWATH OF
25-30 KT WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION....WHICH
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SURROUNDED BY A STABLE AIR
MASS OVER 21-22C WATERS...KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE CIRCULATIONS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06. THE TRACK OF
KRISTY SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION TRAVELS AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS NEAR BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE LASTEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 25.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 26.3N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0600Z 26.7N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 27.0N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

Wow. Looks like I was wrong.

[Yellow Evan]

This adv should be its last though.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

KRISTY HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND
IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.
BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPIN DOWN...AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING AT ABOUT
340/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 26.2N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0000Z 26.7N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 27.0N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 27.2N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH