WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

[brunota2003]

Good luck Okinawa!

[P.K.]

Remains 100kts at 06Z.

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1215 BOLAVEN (1215)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 25.9N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 170NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 29.7N 126.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 280600UTC 36.2N 124.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 290600UTC 45.1N 128.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[angelisagemini]

I think a lot of people here are getting impatient and bored. It's definitely windy out there but nothing crazy yet. My husband and I are taking bets on a satellite that's rocking and some safety cones the bus driver left out.

[phwxenthusiast]

I think a lot of people here are getting impatient and bored. It's definitely windy out there but nothing crazy yet. My husband and I are taking bets on a satellite that's rocking and some safety cones the bus driver left out.

i think the system being so big, and the presence of multiple eyewalls is expanding that windfield a bit... i'm guessing the winds are not that tightly wound up on that core anymore... either way, typhoon force winds could begin in an hour or so, although the strongest will be felt on the northern side of the island; Naha might only get Cat 1 winds imho

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[angelisagemini]

It's definitely picking up out there. There's a bus repair shop in front of my apartment and their roll down garage doors are broken and flapping around like curtains. Very loud curtains.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey all, I been MIA here for a little over a week now. (Vacation) Wow I missed a lot. I got home today and realized Okinawa had a landfalling storm! Any how I made a video. I hope its useful.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_CHrRguMm8[/youtube]

[Meow]

The JMA may realise that Bolaven’s pressure is not that low. The eye is now on Okinawa Island.



TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 26 August 2012

<Analyses at 26/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N26°35'(26.6°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL310km(170NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE650km(350NM)
SW500km(270NM)

<Estimate for 26/13 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N26°40'(26.7°)
E127°50'(127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL310km(170NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE650km(350NM)
SW500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°25'(28.4°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°35'(29.6°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°55'(30.9°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[euro6208]

what a monster landfall for okinawa..

[euro6208]

bolaven made landfall as a category 4 monster with winds of 115 knots over okinawa! best of luck for them!


WTPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 35.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 39.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 47.0N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 127.5E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 17 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS
52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 17 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL 9-NM EYE AND SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. A
261047Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A 20 NM DIAMETER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY
MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
FEATURE AND RADAR FIXES FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS
FROM PGTW. THUS FAR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS OKINAWA SHOW 40 TO
50-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM
SLP OF 952 MB. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A 20 NM INNER EYEWALL POSITIONED
OVER CENTRAL OKINAWA BUT NOW BEGINNING TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE 26/00Z
500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN JAPAN INTO THE CHEJU-DO REGION WITH A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POSITIONED ALONG 120E OVER THE
YELLOW SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH A MINOR TROCHOIDAL MOTION (WOBBLE)
EVIDENT. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD THEN TURN NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK INTO THE YELLOW SEA.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 100 NM SPREAD
WEST OF SEOUL (NEAR TAU 48). THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS AND IS HEDGED EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY
16W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING,
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 48 AND WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 16W
IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 72 AND SHOULD REMAIN A GALE-
FORCE LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER MANCHURIA. BASED ON THE TIGHT DYNAMIC
MODEL GROUPING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

crazy image of bolaven...

[euro6208]

very impressive typhoon...


F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...IMPRESSIVE COOLING OF THE INNER EYE WALL AND SUBSEQUENT
EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS LEFT THE EYE OF BOLAVEN AS DG EMBEDDED
IN LG FOR EYE NO OF 5.0. RING IS BLACK SO NO EYE ADJ... BUT MOAT OF
OW/WMG WRAPS MORE THAN .5 AND MET IS 5.5 ALLOWING FOR BANDING FEATURE
FOR FINAL DT OF 5.5. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[DukeDevil91]

Eyewall getting some cold cloud tops around it again. Maybe a strengthening?

[Infdidoll]

Most of my Oki friends were saying earlier that it wasn't so bad and that they were only getting sustained winds of about 60 mph around the time the eye was passing through. Now, a lot of them are saying they are a little freaked out so the winds must have picked up on the back side of the storm as it passed them. Having a hard time accessing the METARS on Weather Underground to see what the highest recorded wind gusts have been. It will be interesting to see the disparity between northern Okinawa, Kadena, and Naha - all on different parts of the island.

[rdhdstpchld]

Where is James and his video??? Hope he's ok!! Friends are still online, so it's loud but so far....

[Infdidoll]

This came out from the Armed Forces Network about a half hour ago:

THIS IS THE LATEST UPDATE FOR TYPHOON BOLAVEN (16W). AS OF 27/0100L, OKINAWA IS IN TCCOR 1-E. AT 26/2300L, TYPHOON BOLAVEN WAS LOCATED 28 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF KADENA. IT HAD WINDS GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS NEAR ITS CENTER AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 8 KNOTS. THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH WAS 14NM N AT 26/2140L. IF TYPHOON BOLAVEN CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FORECAST, DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER (SUSTAINED) ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM NOW TO 27/0400L. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON OKINAWA WERE SUSTAINED AT 90 KNOTS WITH 120 KNOT GUSTS AT 26/2140L.
--MSgt Prince

[Typhoon Hunter]

Bolaven had a very small wind field with the sustained typhoon force winds only found in the small donut of convection surrounding the inner eye.

I initially chose Higashi on NE coast to ride out the storm but after seeing a sustained 2hr NNW jog i decided to relocated to Oku about 25km north. Of course just as I arrived in Oku I realised Bolaven had made a sharp left turn and was making landfall right over town I'd left 1 hour previously! Grrr.

Anyway, decided to have a go at "punching" into the eye from the west coast, which after a hair raising drive through the eyewall I managed to do in Nago city. Eye was completely calm, with very warm air temp. JMA measured pressure of 935hPa. Back end of eyewall was pretty wild but nothing too crazy since winds weren't coming off the ocean.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdRsQ1F8yiM[/youtube]

All in all Bolaven was a weird storm keeping such a tight and compact core yet being so massive at same time. But it was a lot of fun getting blasted by outer eyewall in Oku, then again by northern eyewall on west coast and then back end of eyewall in Nago!

Time to sleep!!!

[euro6208]

next in line of fire is china, the koreas, russia, and japan!


WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 28.6N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 35.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 38.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 42.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 50.1N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 126.5E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND
280300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE, WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM; HOWEVER THERE
IS NO LONGER A VISIBLE EYE. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALS A WEAKENING OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
THE INNER EYEWALL HAS NOW BEEN COMPLETELY REPLACED BY THE LARGER,
SECONDARY EYEWALL. THIS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A DROP IN THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND A 262209Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH GOOD OUTFLOW INTO
A LARGE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, IT APPEARS THAT OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN JAPAN INTO THE CHEJU-DO REGION WITH A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POSITIONED ALONG EASTERN CHINA AND
THE YELLOW SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND INTO
THE YELLOW SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH LESS THAN A 100 NM SPREAD WEST OF SEOUL (AFTER TAU
24). THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS AND
IS HEDGED EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF THE ERC
AS WELL AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AFTER TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 36 AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT ABOUT THAT SAME TIME. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
NEAR TAU 72 AND SHOULD REMAIN A GALE- FORCE LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER
MANCHURIA. BASED ON THE TIGHT DYNAMIC MODEL GROUPING, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Meow]

Bolaven continues weakening. It is estimated to make landfall over North Korea.



TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 27 August 2012

<Analyses at 27/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N29°55'(29.9°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL600km(325NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°50'(32.8°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area NE350km(190NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N36°20'(36.3°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area NE350km(190NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N44°40'(44.7°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(23kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N51°40'(51.7°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just saw James on CNN again, im sure he is getting a full work week in right now. Still storms blowing across Okinawa even, some 10 meters high waves and additional 250mm is to be expected still according to JMA.

[euro6208]

looks like landfall will be north korea but as a weakening storm! the storm surge in this region must be phenomenal combined with heavy downpour and strong winds...

WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 31.3N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 34.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 38.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 42.9N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 46.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 32.2N 125.0E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 16W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (ABOUT 480-550 NM DIAMETER). A 270926Z CORIOLIS
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS PGTW. TY 16W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL JAPAN. THE 27/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 115E WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INDICATED OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA, MARKING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 AND
SHOULD ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU
12, SST WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE; THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS WEST OF SEOUL; HOWEVER, TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A STRONG 50-60 KNOT SYSTEM. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THIS STAGE OF THE TRACK BUT TY 16W HAS
MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AS EVIDENCED IN THE
RECENT 270054Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE AND THE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON CHEJU-DO (RKPC). THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT, 65 NM SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WEST OF SEOUL AND TIGHT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. TY 16W IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH KOREA AND MANCHURIA
AND IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A GALE-FORCE MIDLATITUDE LOW NEAR
TAU 48.//
NNNN