WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

extremely deep convection with blacks pounding luzon and the philippines as a whole because saola is that large! even metro manila is getting its share...

[phwxenthusiast]

We are experiencing storm like winds here south of Manila. What is causing this?

that's Invest 97W which is now moving into Manila... please read my post in the Invest 97W thread...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Lots of damage and power outages currently being reported around Manila due to inflow and what seems like a small meso-cyclone spinning up.

[dexterlabio]

97W invest is seemingly pulled towards Saola, didn't expect that to affect Manila.

I think we can consider 97W as part of Saola's overall broad circulation, as it was composed of multiple vortices a while ago, and maybe 97W was basically one of it...probably im wrong...sooner or later though that invest would be a part of Saola...

[euro6208]

barely no mention of this on cnn...if this was in the western hemisphere especially the atlantic with saola and twins coming, there would be many hyping and talks of global warming...

[Meow]

It actually moved northeastward.





STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 29 July 2012

<Analyses at 29/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°55'(18.9°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°40'(20.7°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°30'(22.5°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°10'(24.2°)
E122°30'(122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N26°30'(26.5°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N29°10'(29.2°)
E118°50'(118.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)

[cycloneye]

Here is a good map of Taiwan. Let's hope that nothing bad occurs there in terms of flooding and mudslides.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Meow I don't think Saola moved NE at all, instead JMA have relocated the centre subtly since they were tracking the wrong place for so long and have now realised where the dominant centre of circulation is. That's my take.

Models all over the place with Saola, especially with how much it's going to interact with Damrey, makes working out best place to catch this beast a real pain. Whatever the final track it's certain Taiwan is going to get a deluge!

Nice map Cycloneye! In my career I've intercepted typhoon Matsa in Tanshui, Talim in Hualien, Sepat in Fenglin, Krosa in Ilan, Sinlaku in Ilan, Jangmi in Hualien, Morakot in Hualien and Nanmadol in south of Taitung! I LOVE TAIWAN!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

Here is a good map of Taiwan. Let's hope that nothing bad occurs there in terms of flooding and mudslides.

Not that good, as many names do not follow the current official romanization.

Since Jamgmi in 2008, there was no typhoon directing hitting northern Taiwan. Let’s see if Saola is the first one.

[mrbagyo]

an eye is starting to form, with a very deep convection to the south of saola...outflow of saola absorbed by damrey, and the ouflow of damrey absorbed by a tuut cell to the east...its like a ladder of cloud in the wpac,,,

[euro6208]

wow! saola is now forecast to miss taiwan and now china might get a direct hit from a major typhoon...although this region will see tremendous downpour, more flooding...

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.7N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.3N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.5N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.6N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z
AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

prognostic reasoning from JTWC...

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292355Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND SSMIS IMAGE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK
MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 50-55
KNOTS. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 29/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CHINA AND
JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC MODELS IS THE
DEGREE OF ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH TS 11W WITH NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN
AND JGSM INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK (GREATER INTERACTION) AND
GFDN, UKMO, WBAR AND ECMWF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
(LESSER INTERACTION). IN GENERAL, THE JTWC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS ALSO TRENDING POLEWARD
BUT CONTINUES TO FAVOR ECMWF, WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT,
REALISTIC SOLUTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS A SLOW, COMPLEX TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
WITH WEAK INTERACTION WITH TS 11W BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. AT THIS
TIME, THE TWO SYSTEM CENTERS WILL APPROACH WITHIN 400 NM POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A SHORT-TERM SLOW-DOWN OR ERRATIC TRACK EAST OF TAIWAN;
HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT 10W WILL BE AFFECTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY
THE MUCH WEAKER 11W. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W WILL TURN WESTWARD JUST TO THE
NORTH OF TAIWAN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR OVER EASTERN CHINA AND JAPAN. TS 10W AND TS 11W ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH WITHIN 300NM DURING THIS PERIOD BUT 10W AS THE LARGER, MORE
POWERFUL SYSTEM, AGAIN, SHOULD SEE MINIMAL INFLUENCES. TS 11W,
HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 10W'S OUTFLOW AND WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO 10W BY TAU 96. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72
AND POSSIBLE WEAK INTERACTION WITH 11W. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
TRANSITIONS TO THE STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER CHINA AND JAPAN.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

it looks like a typhoon already with a nice ragged eye...


Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

TXPQ25 KNES 300311
TCSWNP

A. 10W (SAOLA)

B. 30/0232Z

C. 19.8N

D. 125.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .7 WH BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=3.5.
MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.2mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

i see you! i would place the intensity at 75 knots 1 min...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

barely no mention of this on cnn...if this was in the western hemisphere especially the atlantic with saola and twins coming, there would be many hyping and talks of global warming...

Its american Media, if its not effecting Americans or American interest many really dont care all to much. But if its an Emily running up the east coast that is going to cuase a slight breeze then the world must tune in. HEHE

[RobWESTPACWX]

I agree on the eye, a little more defined now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Starting to get that look! Tons of moisture, little shear and boiling SSTs, the sky's the limit!

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

UPGRADED TO TYPHOON BY JTWC

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 20.0N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.0N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.4N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.8N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 125.0E.
TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN