2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

[Dencolo]

The NWS lowered my point forecast to 2-4" overnight. That seams more realistic. We've already got the 2" from when the storm gave the initial strong surge. Now it is super fine snow and I don't expect more than an additional 2" overnight. Now time to look forward to a high of 12F tomorrow!

Updated WWA

821 PM MST SUN DEC 4 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST
MONDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY
3 AM OVER DENVER AND BY SUNRISE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

* ACCUMULATION/WIND...2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE DENVER METRO
AREA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE THE PALMER DIVIDE.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT POOR VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS ICY AND SNOW
PACKED ROADS.

[PTPatrick]

Brr...

Well, didnt quite get 3, but did get a couple inches of fluff. Oh well. At these temps at least well have some snow cover for a week or so.

[Mr. Weather]

Any chance for Snow Mid week into the weekend for next week for Denver Colorado ? and west into the ski resorts ?

[denversnowlover]

Well there is a slight chance tomorrow for some freezing rain and flurries other than that not seeing much models seem to keep going all over! Hope we get some more Loving the snow we have had!

I will post when it gets a little closer and maybe more models will have an idea

[denversnowlover]

the nam that is currently coming out is quite wet, compared to the 18utc model.
Fingers crossed

[SCMedic]

That Monday storm was nothing much at all for the urban corridor.

Tomorrow night/thurs storm is anywhere between .28 and .60 of QPF. 30:1 ratio's shouldn't be an issue. Could see 10" in spots if the higher end verifies. Depends on how far east the low is as it sinks south.

[Dencolo]

Got a couple inches here from the last storm - but man the roads were bad from just that. GFS still looking like > 0.5" QPF for the Wed night / Thursday storm. Should be enough for a white Christmas to be realized.

[SCMedic]

.5 at 30:1 is 15" of snow. Even at 20:1, which should be the low end, that's 10" of fluff. Hmmmmm.

[PTPatrick]

Tomorrow night and Thursday looks sweet...I agree if GFS's .5(NAM getting wetter) pans out a foot for Denver is easily possible with these temps. I'm super bummed I'll miss it. Flying home to the Gulf coast tonight...high there tomorrow through Friday...mid 70s. Enjoy your white Christmas peeps! I'll try and enjoy my hot wet one...and ill really enjoy de-snowing and digging my car out of a snow drift at DIA next tuesday!

[SCMedic]

Latest model runs and where the low sets up are in favor of 12"+ across the metro. The WSW even has mention of 6-12" which I think is conservative.


Rock on!

[Dencolo]

Already coming down pretty good.......we'll see what the morning brings.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
749 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

...WINTER STORM HITTING NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST UTAH WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH TONIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH DEEPENING AND
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS WITH SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROADS. TRAVEL
ON SECONDARY ROADS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS WHERE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW MAY FALL.

COZ039>041-221100-
/O.CON.KBOU.WS.W.0017.000000T0000Z-111222T1800Z/
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...
LONGMONT...AURORA...BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...
PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...KIOWA...LARKSPUR...SIMLA
749 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
THURSDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH
PER HOUR. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATION/WIND...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 12
INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM BOULDER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DENVER AND OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
OCCUR WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
WITH SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROADS. SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY BECOME
IMPASSABLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

[SCMedic]

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING. THROUGH 10 PM...A BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN DENVER. HOWEVER...SNOW INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE RATHER RAPIDLY BY 11 PM BEHIND THE ARRIVAL OF
A COLD FRONT.


Look for the snow to pick up again. This first round was purely lift from the low. The front will bring the upslope!

[Dencolo]

Already near 4"? I suppose that would be one reason for needing to update the point forecast.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. North northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow, mainly before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 20 by 9am, then falling to around 13 during the remainder of the day. North northeast wind between 3 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[SCMedic]

Told you the originally under forecast the totals!

[Dencolo]

Most people got more than was bargained for with this storm. Got 10-12" on the SW side of town. Check out the 3 feet near Pinecliffe!


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
200 PM MST THU DEC 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 WSW CONIFER 39.50N 105.35W
12/22/2011 M19.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1225 PM HEAVY SNOW DENVER 39.73N 104.96W
12/22/2011 M10.0 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1225 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N LOVELAND 40.48N 105.07W
12/22/2011 M7.7 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1215 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
12/22/2011 M10.9 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1215 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.12N 105.45W
12/22/2011 M24.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1203 PM HEAVY SNOW LOVELAND 40.42N 105.07W
12/22/2011 M8.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1140 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 N STRASBURG 39.75N 104.30W
12/22/2011 M7.5 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1134 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSE FEDERAL HEIGHTS 39.84N 105.00W
12/22/2011 M9.0 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 E BOULDER 40.03N 105.16W
12/22/2011 M14.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1126 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NNE ARVADA 39.85N 105.09W
12/22/2011 M11.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NW CASTLE ROCK 39.41N 104.89W
12/22/2011 M8.4 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1057 AM SNOW 5 SSW ARAPAHOE PARK 39.57N 104.72W
12/22/2011 M12.6 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1043 AM HEAVY SNOW AURORA 39.70N 104.81W
12/22/2011 M8.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
12/22/2011 M23.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SE AURORA 39.68N 104.79W
12/22/2011 M9.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 NE THORNTON 39.94N 104.89W
12/22/2011 M9.0 INCH ADAMS CO NWS EMPLOYEE

1030 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 W BOULDER 40.03N 105.29W
12/22/2011 M14.7 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH CENTER NOAA

1020 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.39W
12/22/2011 M36.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

[SCMedic]

I easily had 14" of snow this morning when I came home. Not the lightest/fluffiest either. 12:1 maybe.

[VoodooCadillac]

6 light and fluffy inches in Fort Collins - bring the YTD total to 32."

[Dencolo]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/ind ... 4&start=48

Snowfall map from last storm. Two surprises. 1) Boulder got hammered more than expected and 2) South towards the Monument area didn't get as much.

Appears that forecasters still have a ways to go at pinpointing local amounts prior to a storm. Models as well.

[SCMedic]

Incoming storm still stuckin the split flow. 1-3" maybe. Closer to 1" I'd guess. The mountains are insanely dry. We really could use the NW flow to kick in. Yes, it kills our snow chances, but I'm all for mountain snow and low fire danger.

[Dencolo]

Picked up a nice 3" - not so bad considering I wasn't expecting much of anything - started way earlier than I thought. Now to see what the potential Wednesday storm will bring.