EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[Blinhart]

What is the lekely hood of Texas and Louisiana getting some weather from this system? If so when???

[hipshot]

What is the lekely hood of Texas and Louisiana getting some weather from this system? If so when???

Those were my thoughts exactly. Looks like it is forecast to do a recurve like its Atlantic cousins
and if it holds together over land, we just might get some rain. It wouldn't be the first time one
of these storms has come in the back door!

[Fyzn94]

Well, we may want to put that cat 5 gamble out of the equation. She's starting to look sleepy.

[lilybeth]

Looks like it is forecast to do a recurve like its Atlantic cousins and if it holds together over land, we just might get some rain.

That model has changed a touch since yesterday, hasn't it? That little tail is turning around a bit.

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like it is forecast to do a recurve like its Atlantic cousins and if it holds together over land, we just might get some rain.

That model has changed a touch since yesterday, hasn't it? That little tail is turning around a bit.

Yes...

[tobol.7uno]

Intensity models still the same though...

[Ntxw]

I hope she expands her size as she weakens heading into to cooler waters. As a small system she probably won't survive with anything left passed the mountains.

[CrazyC83]

It seems that it strengthened again this afternoon?

[Cranica]

Looks like it's time to start rolling out the A-word again. What is that, like five in the EPAC this year?

[O Town]

Still a very beautiful storm.





Looking quit a bit north of forecast.

[Fyzn94]

I think an EWRC is trying to take place... (I'm too lazy to post a satellite picture)

[CrazyC83]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.1mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 6.1

[CrazyC83]

26/0000 UTC 16.9N 110.9W T5.5/5.5 HILARY -- East Pacific

It was 5.0 earlier, and another agency gave 6.5 at the same time as the 5.0.

[Extratropical94]

Looking great:

[cycloneye]

Up again to cat 4


HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2011

HILARY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN
EXPANDING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND A MORE DISTINCT 10 NM WIDE
EYE SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ALONG WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES. OTHER THAN CONTINUING
FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO INNER-CORE DYNAMICS...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HILARY MOVES OVER
GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS. HILARY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM
BY 72 HOURS...AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW INCREASES OVER
THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/09...AS THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HILARY. A SLOWER WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
HILARY BREAKS DOWN. THROUGH THIS TIME THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION
AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME THE INTERACTION
OF HILARY WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 27N 132W WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE MID-LEVEL LOW AMPLIFYING AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION
WEST OF HILARY BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...AND THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS REPRESENT TWO DISTINCT SCENARIOS FROM THAT TIME
ONWARD. THE GFS TURNS HILARY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND
INTERACTS LESS WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA BY DAY 5. CONVERSELY...
THE ECMWF MOVES HILARY CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN
MORE INTERACTION AND HILARY TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5.
GIVEN THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND THE PLAUSIBILITY
OF BOTH SCENARIOS...THE NHC FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT DAYS
3 THROUGH 5 AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE
EAST OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND TO THE WEST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE
AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IN THE EAST PACIFIC
BASIN IS 175 TO 225 MILES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.6N 114.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 115.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.8N 116.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.5N 116.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 26.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Fyzn94]

Man, is she a trooper or what???

[Kingarabian]

Weakening once again.

[cycloneye]

Last advisory.


BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...HILARY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 122.0W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST.
HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A
GENERALLY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN

[Fyzn94]

See you in 2017...I hope you're as stunning as you were last weekend!

[brunota2003]

Been nice knowing you, Hilary! See you next time!