Ivanhater wrote:wxman57 wrote:Development chances near zero. Shear will be on the increase tomorrow. Won't be much left of it in 36-48 hrs.
I understand the hostile conditions coming, but why is this technically not considered a STS now? Winds of 40mph with thunderstorms near the center, warm core, with a closed circulation? Had this been in the Gulf, it would be hard pressed not to get classified imo.
A few reasons...
1) The vast majority of convective activity has been a direct result of strong divergence associated with the upper low, not the weak transient eddys that have been rotating around the broader surface circulation. By and large, there has been no warm core convective process going on with this system. Any increase in organization has been baroclinic.
2) I would probably take issue that there is any warm-core of depth/significance near the center of this low. With just about all the convection having been displaced downshear (to the north through east), the latent heat release needed for a significant warm-core type intensification or a transition is lacking. When you have dispaced latent heat release, what will generally happen is either 1) pressures will lower away from the center, not over it, or 2) the warm sector will stregthen, and before long you will have a ET (frontal) cyclone development or transition.
3) Crap SSTs, plus the weakening shear trend is about to reverse itself. You'll almost never see a marginal TD or STS start to be carried operationally when it looks to be not long for this world. The system is already being handled by OPC as an ET gale, so it's not like the wind/sea conditions aren't already being addressed.