Nice image of Arani
S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm
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littlevince
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tolakram
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Re: S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm
NHC floater working now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
It just spit out a vortex.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
It just spit out a vortex.
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M a r k
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cycloneye
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Re: S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm
From HPC:
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1238 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SPECIAL STATEMENT. AT 1500 UTC THE NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-
BRAZILIAN NAVY (SMM)...IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL
INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY (INMET)...ISSUED WEATHER WARNINGS FOR
ARANI. AT 1245UTC THIS MORNING IT CENTERED NEAR 24.5S 37.9W...
WITH STORM MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40-50KT.
AT LOW LEVELS...ARANI IS INITIALIZED OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL. THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UNDER INFLUENCE OF A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 20S...THIS
STORM IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL TAKE IT
FROM WARM TO COOLER WATERS THROUGH 48-60 HRS...TO THEN EVOLVE
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
CHURA...SENHAMI (BOLIVIA)
LEDESMA...ARA (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxsa21.html
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1238 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SPECIAL STATEMENT. AT 1500 UTC THE NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-
BRAZILIAN NAVY (SMM)...IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL
INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY (INMET)...ISSUED WEATHER WARNINGS FOR
ARANI. AT 1245UTC THIS MORNING IT CENTERED NEAR 24.5S 37.9W...
WITH STORM MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40-50KT.
AT LOW LEVELS...ARANI IS INITIALIZED OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL. THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UNDER INFLUENCE OF A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 20S...THIS
STORM IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL TAKE IT
FROM WARM TO COOLER WATERS THROUGH 48-60 HRS...TO THEN EVOLVE
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
CHURA...SENHAMI (BOLIVIA)
LEDESMA...ARA (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxsa21.html
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Re: S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm
It's also on the NHC floater - unusual that the same area is active again for the second or third time in the past 10 winter/spring periods...
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Hurricane Jed
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Personally think we still need more evidence of these things happening often enough to justify a new basin...if anywhere could probably justify it, its probably surprisingly the Med...they have a good 3-4 systems a year that if were in the Gulf of Mexico would be highly suspect...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Florida1118
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Re: S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm
From Wunderground.com Dr.Masters-
"An unusual low pressure system that came close to becoming a tropical storm is in the South Atlantic, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Brazil. The Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center has officially named the system Subtropical Storm "Arani", but I'm not sure the low would have been named by NHC, since Arani has somewhat of a loose circulation and limited heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is expected to move slowly eastward out to sea, and does not pose a threat to South America. The latest run of the GFDL model shows little development of Arani, and the storm is now encountering a frontal system, which is bringing 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. It is unlikely that Arani will become a tropical storm. Some runs of the GFDL last weekend were predicting Arani would intensify into a Category 3 hurricane; that's the first time I've even seen such a prediction for a South Atlantic storm."
"An unusual low pressure system that came close to becoming a tropical storm is in the South Atlantic, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Brazil. The Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center has officially named the system Subtropical Storm "Arani", but I'm not sure the low would have been named by NHC, since Arani has somewhat of a loose circulation and limited heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is expected to move slowly eastward out to sea, and does not pose a threat to South America. The latest run of the GFDL model shows little development of Arani, and the storm is now encountering a frontal system, which is bringing 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. It is unlikely that Arani will become a tropical storm. Some runs of the GFDL last weekend were predicting Arani would intensify into a Category 3 hurricane; that's the first time I've even seen such a prediction for a South Atlantic storm."
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