ATL: PAULA - Advisories

[x-y-no]

WTNT33 KNHC 112031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[x-y-no]

WTNT23 KNHC 112031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 85NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.3N 86.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.6N 86.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 75SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 105SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 105SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[SouthFloridawx]

428
WTNT43 KNHC 112032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND
EARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA
IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND
ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE.

BASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 16.0N 84.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 84.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 86.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.6N 86.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 20.0N 86.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 20.0N 85.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 112337
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
800 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...PAULA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 120244
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...PAULA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 84.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120246
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
MASS. SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT PAULA IS STRENGTHENING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF
PAULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PAULA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF
THE GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. PAULA
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A POSITION NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PAULA TO SLOW DOWN AS THE STEERING
CURRENTS COLLAPSE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK
REMAINS QUITE LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 16.8N 84.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.9N 85.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.4N 86.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 20.4N 86.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 21.0N 86.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 21.5N 85.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 83.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120554
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[abajan]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
______________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120850
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
65 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT. IT IS
PROBABLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE THE VERY HIGHEST WINDS IN
THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...A DROPSONDE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL SHOWED THAT THE WINDS FROM AROUND 900 MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WERE 65-70 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...PAULA IS
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE
WEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING
TO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL ACCELERATING PAULA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TURNING
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
PREDICTED INTENSITY. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD
LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF
FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS NOTED
IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 85.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.7N 86.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 20.1N 86.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 21.0N 86.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 86.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 21.5N 85.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 84.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 83.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121141
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

WTNT33 KNHC 121440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA POSES A THREAT TO EASTERN YUCATAN AND
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 85.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.
PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK PAULA
LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

WTNT23 KNHC 121440
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 85.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

WTNT43 KNHC 121440
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE FEATURE AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. LATEST AVAILABLE
SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT RING OF CONVECTION MARKING THE
EYEWALL AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 4.0 SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE
HURRICANE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BY JUDGING THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGES. HOWEVER...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO ADJUST
THE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH PAULA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW SMALL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND RESULTS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES ABOUT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOON...THE
HURRICANE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...OR
WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO MEANDER OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
GRADUALLY FADING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. GIVEN SUCH
LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 18.6N 85.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.9N 86.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 86.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 85.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 21.5N 84.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121738
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 121738
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF PAULA AND
ENCOUNTERED STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 85 KNOTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY THAT WAS
SCHEDULED FOR 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1745Z 18.8N 85.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.9N 86.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 86.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 85.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 21.5N 84.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

FONT13 KNHC 121738
PWSAT3
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010               
1745 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010                                           

AT 1745Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE               

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.             
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -     

VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       2       6      11      22
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       2       1      12      20      29
TROPICAL STORM   1       6      11      26      50      50      40
HURRICANE       99      93      86      71      33      19      10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      29      31      41      24      15       8
HUR CAT 2       59      41      33      18       6       3       1
HUR CAT 3       27      19      18       9       3       1       1
HUR CAT 4        2       3       3       2       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    95KT    95KT    85KT    70KT    60KT    50KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   5(13)   3(16)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MERIDA MX      34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   2(19)

COZUMEL MX     34 74  21(95)   1(96)   1(97)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COZUMEL MX     50 13  46(59)   4(63)   3(66)   4(70)   1(71)   X(71)
COZUMEL MX     64 10  42(52)   3(55)   2(57)   3(60)   X(60)   X(60)

BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

GUANAJA        34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   2(12)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2  28(30)  26(56)  16(72)   9(81)   1(82)   1(83)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   3( 3)  13(16)  17(33)   9(42)   3(45)   1(46)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)   8(26)   1(27)   X(27)

HAVANA         34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   7(25)   3(28)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)

ISLE OF PINES  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   7(13)  12(25)   7(32)   3(35)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   2(13)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   3(15)

$$                                                                 
FORECASTER AVILA                                                   



[caneseddy]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 122043
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF
PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 122043
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF
PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER
SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE
OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR
981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE
5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT
12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA. NOW THAT PAULA IS
STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS
PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS
RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW
PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.2N 86.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 86.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 86.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 22.0N 85.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 83.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[caneseddy]

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER
SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE
OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR
981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE
5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT
12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA. NOW THAT PAULA IS
STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS
PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS
RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW
PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.2N 86.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 86.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 86.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 22.0N 85.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 83.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 122341
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...MOVING TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT43 KNHC 130241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

A 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH
AN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0047 UTC SSMIS
PASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS
INSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE. THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0...
RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 85 KT.

PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN. THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED
NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8. THE TRACK REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN
EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
CYCLONE WILL GET. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM
ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
GFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 19.9N 86.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 20.9N 86.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 21.8N 85.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 22.1N 84.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 81.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
100 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING SMALL
HURRICANE PAULA SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 86.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA SHOULD
REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

NNNN