ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
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ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200911031212
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2009, DB, O, 2009110312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972009
AL, 97, 2009110212, , BEST, 0, 96N, 804W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110218, , BEST, 0, 96N, 807W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 810W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110306, , BEST, 0, 97N, 813W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 815W, 25, 1009, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
Thread that discussed about this area at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106928&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200911031212
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2009, DB, O, 2009110312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972009
AL, 97, 2009110212, , BEST, 0, 96N, 804W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110218, , BEST, 0, 96N, 807W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 810W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110306, , BEST, 0, 97N, 813W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 815W, 25, 1009, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
Thread that discussed about this area at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106928&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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- cycloneye
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ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models
524
WHXX01 KWBC 031220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC TUE NOV 3 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091103 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091103 1200 091104 0000 091104 1200 091105 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 82.3W 10.9N 83.2W 11.4N 84.2W
BAMD 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 81.5W 11.3N 81.9W 12.0N 82.6W
BAMM 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 81.8W 11.0N 82.4W 11.7N 83.3W
LBAR 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 82.0W 11.8N 82.9W 13.2N 83.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091105 1200 091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 85.1W 12.5N 86.6W 13.4N 87.9W 14.1N 89.4W
BAMD 13.0N 83.4W 14.9N 84.8W 17.3N 85.4W 19.2N 85.5W
BAMM 12.4N 84.2W 13.5N 86.1W 14.8N 87.5W 15.4N 89.1W
LBAR 14.8N 84.6W 16.9N 85.4W 17.9N 83.8W 17.8N 81.8W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS 37KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 80.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 031220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC TUE NOV 3 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091103 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091103 1200 091104 0000 091104 1200 091105 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 82.3W 10.9N 83.2W 11.4N 84.2W
BAMD 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 81.5W 11.3N 81.9W 12.0N 82.6W
BAMM 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 81.8W 11.0N 82.4W 11.7N 83.3W
LBAR 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 82.0W 11.8N 82.9W 13.2N 83.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091105 1200 091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 85.1W 12.5N 86.6W 13.4N 87.9W 14.1N 89.4W
BAMD 13.0N 83.4W 14.9N 84.8W 17.3N 85.4W 19.2N 85.5W
BAMM 12.4N 84.2W 13.5N 86.1W 14.8N 87.5W 15.4N 89.1W
LBAR 14.8N 84.6W 16.9N 85.4W 17.9N 83.8W 17.8N 81.8W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS 37KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 80.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
Why are thing so quiet here? With the strong model support people on Central America, Caribbean and Florida should monitor the system carefully. This system may preoduce heavy rains in Central America later this week into the weekend so I'm very interested on it.
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- CourierPR
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
This system appears to be organizing. Perhaps this season will end with a surprise.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
This system already looks like a TD to me. Do any of you think that this will pose a threat to SFL?
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
97L looks like its less organized (hence2009 season) and the tops are warming.It looks like its slowly spreading westward and eventually into the EPAC.I'm giving up.Bring on winter.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
I plotted a map with the 168hr (6pm CST Monday) GFS and ECMWF surface prog on the same map. Isobars are analyzed for every 1/2 millibar. GFS is in purple, EC in yellow. Fairly similar. Has a good chance of moving into Central America, too.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
Has a nice spin looking at the first visibles as it remains stationary:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
Maybe the models are finally remembering the shear problem.
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M a r k
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Just need to keep an eye on it. But if it were to develop and head north I cannot imagine it gaining much intensity with the shear and likely a run in with the westerlies and lowering SST's, especially if it made it to the GOM. A heavy rain producer would prolly be the biggest threat for anyone!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models
Its the NAM,but I only am posting this 12z run as is superbullish.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L
Recon for Wednesday Afternoon
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L=Recon for Wednesday Afternoon at 20:00Z
Below is the long discussion about 97L by Dr Jeff Masters.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:39 PM GMT on Noviembre 03, 2009
An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.
The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.
The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.
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