wxman57 wrote:NHC always seems to be slow in weakening a storm. 85kts is extremely generous for a system with an exposed center. At the rate it's going, and with all that dry air and shear it's facing, it may be a weak TS when it reaches Baja. Good news for them.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I would have gone with 70 kt at the advisory. At the time Recon visited, that assumption could have been made but still would have only supported 75 kt, and I presume that it weakened a bit more in the ensuing 3 hours.
My guess is that it peaked at 0600Z October 18 (155 kt / 906mb). Since then (all are lower than the BT):
18/0600 - 155 kt / 906mb
18/1200 - 145 kt / 915mb
18/1800 - 130 kt / 924mb
19/0000 - 115 kt / 935mb
19/0600 - 105 kt / 942mb
19/1200 - 90 kt / 957mb
19/1800 - 75 kt / 972mb