EPAC: Tropical Depression BLANCA (03E)

[cycloneye]

After a brief lull in the EPAC,a new invest is up.

BEGIN
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invest_ep942009.invest
FSTDA
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040
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200907041958
NONE
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2009, DB, O, 2009070418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942009
EP, 94, 2009070318, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1004W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009070400, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1013W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009070406, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1023W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009070412, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1034W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009070418, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1046W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Best Track at 18 UTC:

Position=Latitud,14.6N - Longitud,104.6W.
Winds=25 kts.
Pressure=1009 mbs.
System=Disturbance.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 042002
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2002 UTC SAT JUL 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20090704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090704 1800 090705 0600 090705 1800 090706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 104.6W 15.8N 107.0W 16.8N 109.5W 17.7N 111.9W
BAMD 14.6N 104.6W 15.4N 107.1W 16.3N 109.5W 16.9N 111.7W
BAMM 14.6N 104.6W 15.7N 107.1W 16.6N 109.5W 17.3N 111.8W
LBAR 14.6N 104.6W 15.4N 107.2W 16.4N 110.1W 17.6N 113.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090706 1800 090707 1800 090708 1800 090709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 114.2W 19.1N 118.2W 19.9N 121.2W 20.6N 123.7W
BAMD 17.6N 113.9W 18.7N 118.0W 20.3N 121.8W 21.9N 124.7W
BAMM 17.8N 114.1W 18.7N 118.2W 20.0N 121.4W 21.3N 124.0W
LBAR 18.6N 115.9W 20.9N 121.5W 24.3N 125.0W 29.7N 124.2W
SHIP 53KTS 54KTS 44KTS 38KTS
DSHP 53KTS 54KTS 44KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 104.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 102.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 100.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Not a bad looking system,but I see outflow boundaries.

[HURAKAN]

Not a bad looking system,but I see outflow boundaries.

There is mostly a trough, nothing well-developed at the surface.

[Macrocane]

Circulation is evident but it hasn't reached the surface as the Quikscat shows. I think it has a medium chance to become a tropical cyclone, wind shear will be low to moderate as it moves west.

[clfenwi]

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product is spiking.

Watching the visible loop, it looks like there's a good trend going on. I'm keen to see what the latest Quikscat pass shows for the surface.

Here's what the 22Z TWD had to say:

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER SRN MEXICO
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 14N105W IS INCREASING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL E-SE WINDS SW OF MEXICO. SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID
"3FQO4" JUST OFF THE COAST SW MEXICO NEAR 16.5N100W AT 1900 UTC
REPORTED SE WINDS NEAR 30 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON IS REVEALING THAT THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH TIME. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING E TO SE FLOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
WELL OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
15N109W IN 24 HRS...AND NEAR 16N112W IN 48 HRS. WINDS OF 20-30
KT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITHIN A
DISTANCE OF ABOUT 180 NM NE TO 360 NM DUE TO THE RESULTANT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE GEOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MEXICAN COAST. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO
8-10 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...BUT WILL FORECAST SEAS
UP TO 12 FT DUE TO THE INCREASING FETCH.

I'm expecting "Code Orange" from the next TWO. We'll find out soon.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

405
ABPZ20 KNHC 042337
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND NOT
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 94, 2009070500, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1060W, 25, 1008, DB

Position=Latitud,15.7N _ Longitud,106.0W.
Winds=25 kts.
Pressure=1008 mbs.
System=Disturbance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

deep storms minimal near the area of apparent rotation, but I think this makes it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-rb-s.html

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

585
ABPZ20 KNHC 051149
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

EP, 94, 2009070512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1087W, 25, 1008, DB

Position=Latitud,16.5N - Longitud,108.7W.
Winds=25 kts.
Pressure=1008 mbs.
System=Disturbance.

[Macrocane]

it looks more healthy now than yesterday, let's wait and see if convection persist and become more concentrated.

[cyclonic chronic]

nice convective blow up, conditions look good for 94e 2 bcome blanca. imho

[clfenwi]

Wonder if we'll see the center get relocated closer to 15° (i..e under this morning's convection blow-up).

Remarks from the 16Z TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF
17N109W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
BANDS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA S OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. NARROWER BANDS HAVE BEEN FILLING IN
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE CENTER. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION...BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT.
WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER OVER THE REMAINING QUADRANTS
ESPECIALLY SW OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES ITS WNW
MOTION.

[cycloneye]

824
ABPZ20 KNHC 051730
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Macrocane]

As it has been the case with most of the systems this year, convection has decreased a lot but I'm expecting it to increase again as conditions look favorable for further development. I'm not sure if it will be Blanca but has a good chance to be at least TD 03-E

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

490
WHXX01 KMIA 051839
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC SUN JUL 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20090705 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090705 1800 090706 0600 090706 1800 090707 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 109.9W 17.4N 112.2W 18.0N 114.3W 18.5N 116.4W
BAMD 16.4N 109.9W 17.1N 112.0W 17.6N 114.0W 18.1N 116.0W
BAMM 16.4N 109.9W 17.2N 112.0W 17.7N 114.1W 18.2N 116.0W
LBAR 16.4N 109.9W 17.1N 112.4W 17.9N 115.3W 18.6N 118.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090707 1800 090708 1800 090709 1800 090710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 118.3W 19.5N 121.7W 19.8N 125.0W 19.7N 128.2W
BAMD 18.5N 118.1W 19.3N 121.9W 20.5N 125.2W 21.7N 128.0W
BAMM 18.6N 118.1W 19.5N 121.9W 20.4N 125.2W 21.2N 128.2W
LBAR 19.5N 121.3W 22.3N 126.0W 27.0N 127.7W 33.9N 124.9W
SHIP 36KTS 35KTS 30KTS 24KTS
DSHP 36KTS 35KTS 30KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 109.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 107.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 104.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN