WPAC: Ex-KUJIRA (01W)

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 030600
CCAA 03060 47644 KUJIRA(0901) 01140 11251 12144 230// 90807=

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 13.9N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 15.0N 128.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 050600UTC 15.6N 132.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 060600UTC 17.1N 136.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

Forecast is typhoon in 48 hours.

[P.K.]

This is a new product from the JMA. Only a forecast position is given for days 4 and 5.

[KWT]

Yeah this becoming the first typhoon of the WPAC season seems like a reasonable bet to me.

[senorpepr]

WTJP31 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0901 KUJIRA (0901) 990 HPA
AT 14.2N 125.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 15.2N 129.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "DANTE" {KUJIRA}
Issued at 4:30 p.m., Sunday, 03 May 2009

Tropical Storm "DANTE" has maintained its strength and moved East Northeast.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 110 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 14.2°N, 125.3°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph

Movement: East Northeast at 7 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday afternoon:
330 kms East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

Tuesday afternoon:
670 kms Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or
810 kms East of Casiguran, Aurora

Wednesday afternoon:
1,220 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan


Signal 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Catanduanes

Signal 1 (30-60 kph winds):
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Albay
Masbate
Burias Island
Southern Quezon
Polillo Island

Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 and 1 are alerted against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.

[Chacor]

Now a severe TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 14.5N 125.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 15.5N 129.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 051200UTC 16.7N 133.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 061200UTC 19.8N 137.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.5N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.2N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.9N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 34.0N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 126.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

03/2030 UTC 15.4N 127.1E T4.0/4.0 KUJIRA -- West Pacific

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0901 KUJIRA (0901)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 15.7N 127.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 17.1N 131.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 060000UTC 18.6N 135.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 070000UTC 24.0N 141.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

[HurricaneRobert]

That's obviously a typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

My vote also goes for typhoon!

[Chacor]

JTWC would have us believe otherwise.

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.6N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.1N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.2N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 38.5N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Great Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020657.GIF

Looks like Kujira's intensity is being slightly underestimated. Based on imagery I would say 75-80 mph.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAY 2009 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 15:52:04 N Lon : 127:25:55 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 984.9mb/ 57.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Center Temp : -80.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks very good.

[Derek Ortt]

that is an IMD-like classificiation by JTWC

the ADT of course is under-estimating it as the eye is cloud covered and ther eis little temp contrast on the IR

JMA, as usual, is on the mark with this one

[HURAKAN]

Apparently the eye is not the center according to the JTWC.