SIO: Tropical Depression 10R (19S)

[HURAKAN]

371
WTIO30 FMEE 090008

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/10/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2009/03/09 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 84.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/09 12 UTC: 16.6S/85.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/03/10 00 UTC: 17.9S/86.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/03/10 12 UTC: 18.5S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 18.2S/85.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/03/12 00 UTC: 17.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES. IT STILL UNDERGOES AN UPPER LEVEL
CONSTRAINT AS SHOWN BY THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION (SEE F16 08/1419Z AND AQUA 08/2013Z). THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE
IS WELL ESTABLISHED.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS WEAKENED POLEWARDS
BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 1810Z, BUOY NR 53525 MEASURED 1000.1 HPA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTRE.
ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE , SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE MAINLY WITH THE DECREASE OF
THE WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND 24H, AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW A
CURVE AND THEN A WESTWARDS OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARINIGS.

[HURAKAN]

Not expected to reach TS intensity anymore.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 090130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 83.7E TO 18.4S 87.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 082330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9S 84.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
82.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 84.1E, APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC IN
RELATION TO THE RIDGE AXIS IS HELPING TO KEEP THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR LOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM HAS BEEN HELPING
TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT HAS KEPT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HIGH ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100130Z.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[Chacor]

Now a TD.

WTIO30 FMEE 091233

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2009/03/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 85.7E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/10 00 UTC: 19.6S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/03/11 12 UTC: 19.5S/83.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/03/12 00 UTC: 19.1S/81.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/03/12 12 UTC: 18.8S/80.1E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. ACTUALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT AS LIGHTLY WEAKEN. THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD EQUATORWARDS, BUT IS WEAKENED POLEWARDS
BY A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD REBUILT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE AND TRACK WESTWARD, THEN NORTH-WESTWARD
BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE TRADE INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE REBUILDING OF THE
HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE MONSOON INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.
THE UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BEYOND, WITH INCREASING
OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090121Z MAR 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.2S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.9S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.3S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED DESPITE
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM, FUELING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER AN ALREADY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
INDICATED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA. ON THE OTHER HAND, MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS DISRUPTING
SYMMETRY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT THE LLCC, AND MORE RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR INDICATES THAT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
STIFFLED AS WELL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMME, WHICH BOTH INDICATE A 35-
KNOT SYSTEM. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD. INTENSITIES WILL HOVER NEAR
35 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO
CONTEND WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 090121Z MAR 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 090130 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND
101500Z.

[Grifforzer]

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC La Reunion or JTWC products.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R (997 hPa) located at 18.7S 87.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east-southeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius of the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.2S 87.4E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
24 HRS: 19.5S 86.6E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 18.7S 83.2E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
72 HRS: 18.4S 78.4E - Dissipant

Additional Information
======================
The system has slightly intensified during the last 12 hours. Actually the upper level constraint as lightly weakened. The poleward divergence is well established. Low level inflow is rather good equatorwards, but is weakened polewards by a transient low level trough. The system tracks south-southeast under the steering influence of a mid level near equatorial ridge. Within the next 12 to 24 hours, the subtropical high pressures should rebuilt south of the system. Therefore, the system is expected to curve and track westward, then northwest beyond the next 24 hours. The trade inflow is expected to strengthen due to the rebuilding of the high pressures south of the system, but the monsoon inflow is expected to weaken. The upper levels wind shear is expected to stabilize and the system is expected to have good poleward divergence conditions within the next 24 horus. Environment is expected to become less favorable beyond the increasing of the northwesterly wind shear aloft.

The forecast is based on the consensus of the available NWP.