#3845 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:08 pm
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.00 PM ADT
...VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST
TO CROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.0 N AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 250 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.0N 69.7W 970 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.5N 69.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 AM 44.3N 67.2W 965 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 AM 47.3N 64.9W 962 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 PM 50.6N 62.5W 965 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 53.7N 59.9W 966 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 AM 56.8N 58.4W 972 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 59.1N 57.7W 974 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 PM 61.7N 57.3W 975 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT ON ITS WAY TO PASSING BY GOOSE BAY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE LABRADOR SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH NOEL IS A POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM CENTRE SINCE THE HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE TRACK LINE ITSELF.
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
BY 2PM ADT BACCARO POINT HAD ALREADY RECEIVED 16MM OF RAIN AND HAD
SEEN THE MAXIMUM COASTAL WIND SO FAR WITH 80 KM/H.
THE NUMBER OF WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE TOO NUMEROUS TO LIST BUT
ARE SUMMARIZED HERE WITH DETAILS BEING AVAILABLE IN BULLETINS ISSUED
BY THE QUÉBEC AND ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRES AND THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE...
...WIND AND/OR RAIN WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR QUÉBEC NEW BRUNSWICK
PEI NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
...A HEAVY SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHURCHILL FALLS
LABRADOR.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WRECKHOUSE NEWFOUNDLAND
AREA AND IN LES SUETES IN THE CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS... 100 KM/H
GUSTING TO 180/160 RESPECTIVELY.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECAST IS 100 MM IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK.
DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA..THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS IN THE GULF
OF ST LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. STORM SURGE IS
UNLIKELY TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE WE ARE APPROACHING NEAP TIDE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO BE MUCH ABOVE HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR CHURCHILL FALLS AND VICINITY AS
POST-TROPICAL NOEL DRAWS COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN REGIONS AS IT PASSES.
DAMAGE/IMPACTS... SIMILAR STATEMENTS ISSUED EARLIER...
WHERE WIND GUSTS TO AND ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE (120 KM/H) ARE FORECAST
..EXPECT TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS. SOME TREES WILL LIKELY
BE UPROOTED. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND CLADDING
MATERIAL ON SOME HOMES. SOME SIGNAGE COULD ALSO SUFFER DAMAGE WITH
WINDS GUSTING THIS HIGH. ALSO..WITH 10-METRE WAVES EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... AND UPWARDS OF 8-METRES IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY. COAST..EROSION OF SOME
BEACHES IS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE.
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS..ESPECIALLY
WHERE LEAF LITTER CLOGS STORM DRAINS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARITIME WATERS AND MOST GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS. STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR SOUTHERN LABRADOR AND FOR SOME ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER WATERS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
BUOY B44004 APPEARS TO BE RIGHT IN THE PATH OF THE STORM CENTRE
WITH A 17Z MSLP OF 974.7MB.. DIMINISHING WINDS NOW AT EAST 13 KTS..
AND SIG WAVE PREVIOUS HOUR OF 9.7M. HENCE WE ARE CONTENT WITH A
970 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE LOWER.
GOES IMAGERY GIVES A REASONABLE FIX ON POSITION AND CLEARLY SHOWS
DRY AIR NOW WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTRE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION AND MELDING WITH A
BLEND OF GEM AND GFS TRACKS. GEM INITIALIZED ABOUT 12 MB TOO HIGH.
ACCORDINGLY FUTURE PRESSURES WILL BE TOO HIGH BUT WE IMAGINE IT WILL
CATCH UP SOMEWHAT. OTHER THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAINS
INTACT.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
ASPC WILL BE EXTENDING WIND WARNINGS FARTHER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
QSPC IS CONSIDERING EXTENDING WIND WARNINGS FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.
NLWO IS CONDERING EXTENDING WIND WARNINGS INTO ALL REGIONS IN
WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
D. MARINE WEATHER
TRADITIONAL WIND RADII TABLE IS LEFT OUT GIVEN THAT THE WIND
DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE STORM IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A PURELY
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL CONTINUES SUGGESTING THAT WAM AND WW3
MAY BE UNDERDOING THE WAVES WITH THIS STORM... WITH BOTH OF THOSE
MODELS SHOWING 11-12M. WITH 10M APPEARING AT B44004 THE MAX WAVES
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THIS SO 13-15M IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE TROPICAL HISTORY OF THIS STORM..THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
END BOWYER
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