Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models
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- hurricanetrack
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Re:
hurricanetrack wrote:Yes:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07091323
Rolls it up at 96 hours.
that link is the 18z for humberto.
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Re: Re:
jhamps10 wrote:hurricanetrack wrote:Yes:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07091323
Rolls it up at 96 hours.
that link is the 18z for humberto.
Scroll down, it's below Humberto.
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- hurricanetrack
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
Shear is not so bad where Ingrid would presumably be....not yet anyway....
Shear is not so bad where Ingrid would presumably be....not yet anyway....
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Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Global & BAM Models
Looks like it bends it back west but its hard to tell with that loop. Hoefully it won't go west long enough to pull an Andrew.
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Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Global & BAM Models
Out of all the models,HWRF is usually the best at forecasting intensification.They were the first to forecast Dean as a cat.5
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- HURAKAN
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808
WHXX01 KWBC 141337
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1337 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070914 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070914 1200 070915 0000 070915 1200 070916 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 49.7W 15.9N 51.2W 17.0N 52.8W 17.8N 54.0W
BAMD 15.1N 49.7W 16.1N 50.6W 17.3N 51.4W 18.6N 52.0W
BAMM 15.1N 49.7W 15.9N 51.0W 16.8N 52.2W 17.6N 53.1W
LBAR 15.1N 49.7W 16.1N 50.7W 17.4N 51.9W 18.7N 53.5W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070916 1200 070917 1200 070918 1200 070919 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 55.2W 20.1N 57.2W 21.8N 58.6W 23.5N 59.8W
BAMD 19.8N 52.5W 22.3N 53.0W 25.1N 52.1W 28.8N 48.0W
BAMM 18.3N 53.9W 19.5N 55.3W 21.2N 56.1W 23.5N 56.1W
LBAR 19.9N 55.2W 22.5N 58.8W 24.4N 61.5W 25.4N 63.7W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 49.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 48.5W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 47.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 141337
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1337 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL082007) 20070914 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070914 1200 070915 0000 070915 1200 070916 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 49.7W 15.9N 51.2W 17.0N 52.8W 17.8N 54.0W
BAMD 15.1N 49.7W 16.1N 50.6W 17.3N 51.4W 18.6N 52.0W
BAMM 15.1N 49.7W 15.9N 51.0W 16.8N 52.2W 17.6N 53.1W
LBAR 15.1N 49.7W 16.1N 50.7W 17.4N 51.9W 18.7N 53.5W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070916 1200 070917 1200 070918 1200 070919 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 55.2W 20.1N 57.2W 21.8N 58.6W 23.5N 59.8W
BAMD 19.8N 52.5W 22.3N 53.0W 25.1N 52.1W 28.8N 48.0W
BAMM 18.3N 53.9W 19.5N 55.3W 21.2N 56.1W 23.5N 56.1W
LBAR 19.9N 55.2W 22.5N 58.8W 24.4N 61.5W 25.4N 63.7W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 49.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 48.5W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 47.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Global & BAM Models
SHIP intensity model mantains it as a storm during the whole run until 120 hours.
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Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Global & BAM Models
12Z CMC maintains Ingrid as a tropical cyclone into the SE Bahamas in 5 days. Takes a much more southern route than indicated by NHC.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Global & BAM Models
ronjon wrote:12Z CMC maintains Ingrid as a tropical cyclone into the SE Bahamas in 5 days. Takes a much more southern route than indicated by NHC.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Well that certainly is interesting...shoots another tropical storm across Florida into the gulf...keeps the ridge pretty strong...even if it is the canadian..a scenerio I will be watching for
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Global & BAM Models
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2007
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 49.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082007
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2007 15.4N 49.3W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2007 16.3N 51.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2007 16.4N 52.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2007 18.6N 53.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2007 19.4N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2007 20.5N 56.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2007 21.1N 57.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2007 21.9N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2007 22.3N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2007 22.6N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2007 23.0N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2007 23.0N 59.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2007 23.1N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt
12z UKMET bends more west in the end.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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