SPAC: INVEST 97P

[Subtrop]

97P INVEST 240218 1800 17.2S 171.8E SHEM 20 1002

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S
173.3E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190612Z SMOS IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THOUGH GLOBAL DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW