SATL: Akará - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

SPECIAL WARNING

WARNING NR 060/2024
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500Z - WED - 14/FEB/2024
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE STARTING AT 152100Z WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010HPA AT 24S040W, MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTH, WITH CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 7/8 AND ROUGH SEA AFFECTING AREAS BRAVO, DELTA AND SOUTH OCEANIC.
VALID UNTIL 210000Z.

[KirbyDude25]

The 12Z GFS has this peaking at about 998 mb in roughly 102 hours, though I couldn't tell whether it would be tropical at that time. It seems like it'll be at least subtropical by then, but I'm not entirely sure. If it is tropical or subtropical at that time, then it looks like it would have peak winds of about 40-45 knots.

[rodolfo alves]

Brazilian Weather Model (Cosmo)

[rodolfo alves]

[rodolfo alves]

GFS 18Z

[Hurricane2022]

Any chance of this future system becoming a hurricane? The waters off the Brazilian coast are around 25 - 27 degrees, considerably above average

[JetFuel_SE]

Any chance of this future system becoming a hurricane? The waters off the Brazilian coast are around 25 - 27 degrees, considerably above average

00z GFS is at 986, certainly low enough to be a hurricane.

[rodolfo alves]

GFS 12Z

[rodolfo alves]

ECMWF 12Z

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1758263220052074943

[rodolfo alves]

GFS 18Z bringing a little closer to the Brazilian coast

[Subtrop]

WARNING NR 072/2024
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 0000Z – FRI – 16/FEB/2024
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 HPA AT 25S039W, MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS FORCE 7/8 (40 KT) ON EAST SECTOR AND ROUGH SEA ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES 3.0/4.0 METERS OFFSHORE AFFECTING BRAVO, DELTA AND SOUTH OCEANIC AREAS.
ESTIMATED POSITION:
160600Z: 25.3S 039.3W – 1010 HPA – MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 28/33 KT – SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
161200Z: 25.1S 038.6W – 1008 HPA – MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 28/33 KT – SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
161800Z: 25.6S 038.0W – 1008 HPA – MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 28/33 KT – SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
170000Z: 26.2S 038.1W – 1006 HPA – MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30/40 KT – SUBTROPICAL STORM
170600Z: 26.3S 038.0W – 1005 HPA – MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30/40 KT – SUBTROPICAL STORM
171200Z: 26.8S 030.0W – 1002 HPA – MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30/40 KT – SUBTROPICAL STORM
VALID UNTIL 220000Z.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WARNING NR 068/2024.

[rodolfo alves]

Subtropical Depression formed according to the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center.

[rodolfo alves]

[rodolfo alves]

Brazilian Weather Model

[rodolfo alves]

12Z

[Subtrop]

UKM

SA, 01, 2024021612, 03, UKM, 0, 240S, 390W, 31, 1011, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, , , 134, , , , , , , , 01Q

[rodolfo alves]

[rodolfo alves]

Flight charts from the Brazilian Aeronautics already working with the Subtropical Storm formed tonight.

[rodolfo alves]

UKM

SA, 01, 2024021612, 03, UKM, 0, 240S, 390W, 31, 1011, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, , , 134, , , , , , , , 01Q

WTNT80 EGRR 161612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.02.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.0S 39.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.02.2024 24.0S 39.0W WEAK
00UTC 17.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 25.6S 38.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.02.2024 25.6S 38.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.02.2024 26.6S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.02.2024 28.3S 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.02.2024 30.3S 40.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.02.2024 32.0S 40.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.02.2024 33.0S 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.02.2024 33.3S 37.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.02.2024 33.3S 37.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.02.2024 33.6S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.02.2024 34.5S 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.02.2024 34.8S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK