SPAC: 10F - Remnants

[Subtrop]

94P INVEST 240214 0000 15.2S 165.7E SHEM 15 0
94P INVEST 240214 0000 15.2S 165.7W SHEM 25 1002

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S
167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140838Z 89GHZ GMI SATELLITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH
WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9S 167.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141707Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON
TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE MSI
LOOP AND THE 150006Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOW FORMATIVE
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 164.1W
AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
DEPRESSION MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP ITSELF FROM THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC TO THE WESTERN SECTOR.
TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS
HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4
WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDS
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 162.1W
AT 160600 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS
HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4
WITH DT 2.5. WITH MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDS
T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

[rodolfo alves]