AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S
167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140838Z 89GHZ GMI SATELLITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH
WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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