SPAC: LINCOLN - Remnants

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92P INVEST 240213 0000 14.7S 135.9E SHEM 15 0

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93S INVEST 240213 0600 15.0S 134.0E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.1S 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132358Z GMI
89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS OF
CONVECTION, AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL
GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5S 137.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.9W, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 142031Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS
OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MARGINAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL
GENERALLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THEN
INTERACTING WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.6S 137.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151238Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW RAIN
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93S WILL, AFTER A BRIEF QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD, TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH

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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0101 UTC 16/02/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 137.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/0600: 16.2S 137.5E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 994
+12: 16/1200: 16.6S 137.2E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 998
+18: 16/1800: 16.9S 136.5E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 999
+24: 17/0000: 17.1S 135.8E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 999
+36: 17/1200: 17.7S 134.4E: 065 (120): 025 (045): 1002
+48: 18/0000: 18.0S 132.7E: 075 (140): 025 (045): 1004
+60: 18/1200: 18.3S 131.5E: 095 (175): 025 (045): 1003
+72: 19/0000: 18.4S 130.1E: 105 (190): 025 (045): 1003
+96: 20/0000: 17.5S 128.5E: 135 (250): 020 (035): 1003
+120: 21/0000: 16.6S 127.0E: 180 (335): 020 (035): 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical low 07U was located using visible satellite imagery and radar
animation. Deep convection has continued to persist to the west and northwest
of the centre. The low level centre is exposed about 25nm to the east of the
deepest convection.

Dvorak analysis using curved band pattern yields DT = 2.0. MET = 1.5 based on a
24 hour S trend, with PT adjusted to 2.0. Final T = 2.0 and CI is held at 2.5.
Shear pattern has not been used due to the pulsating nature of deep convection.
Intensity is set at 35 knots (NW quadrant) based on observations. There is no
objective guidance available at present.

The environment is broadly favourable for development. An upper trough to the
south of the system is providing good upper divergence and poleward outflow.
The system lies under estimated low to moderate vertical wind shear. Some model
guidance indicates 07U may reach tropical cyclone intensity just before making
landfall, however remaining time over water is limited.

Steering is expected to be to the south-southwest under the combined influence
of an upper trough to the south and mid-level ridge to the east. From late
Friday, a new mid-level ridge builds to the south of the system, turning it
more towards the west-southwest. This steering should persist during the
weekend, moving the system over land across central Northern Territory. In the
longer term, guidance indicates the low may move offshore from the Kimberley
coast mid next week, with the possibility of the system re-intensifying.

[cycloneye]

[Subtrop]

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln has formed in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. A coastal crossing is expected between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld Border during the afternoon.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricane_chase/status/1758426036465729968

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located using visible satellite imagery, radar
animation and nearby surface observations. Deep convection has continued just
to the west of the centre. The exposed low level centre is now less than 10nm
to the east of the deepest convection.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yields DT = 3.5. MET = 2.5 based on a 24
hour D trend, with PT adjusted to 3.0. Final T and CI = 3.0. Objective
Guidance: AiDT 33kn, DPRINT 34 kn (1-min). Intensity is 40 knots based on
earlier ASCAT pass and Dvorak analysis.

The system is expected to maintain intensity as it makes landfall, then weaken
quickly to below tropical cyclone strength during the evening.

Steering is expected to continue to be south-southwest initially, then more
towards the west-southwest during the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to
the south. It is then expected to maintain a general westward movement into
early next week, moving across central Northern Territory. In the longer term,
guidance indicates the low may move offshore of the Kimberley coast by mid next
week, with the possibility of the system re-intensifying.

[cycloneye]

It may redevelop.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is moving west across the Northern Territory and is expected to move over the Kimberley in Western Australia late Monday, bringing heavy rainfall to areas near its path. Refer to Severe Weather Warning.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is forecast to reach waters west of the Kimberley and north of the Pilbara from the middle of next week, and there is a High risk it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone from Thursday.
There is a chance it strengthens into a severe tropical cyclone.
On Friday and over the weekend it could move towards the Pilbara coast, possibly impacting the coast from late Friday.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1759212119730377150

[cycloneye]

High Chance for Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln to re-develop offshore from the Pilbara coast.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is moving west across the Kimberley, bringing heavy rainfall to areas near its path. Refer to Severe Weather Warning.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is forecast to reach waters west of the Kimberley and north of the Pilbara from Wednesday, and there is a High risk it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone from Thursday.
There is a chance it strengthens into a severe tropical cyclone.
On Friday and over the weekend it could move towards the Pilbara coast, possibly impacting the coast from late Friday or Saturday.

[cycloneye]

High chance for Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln to re-develop offshore from the Pilbara coast.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is moving slowly west across the Kimberley, bringing heavy rainfall to areas near its path. Refer to Severe Weather Warning.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is forecast to reach waters west of the Kimberley and north of the Pilbara from Wednesday, and there is a High risk it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone from Thursday.
There is a chance it strengthens into a severe tropical cyclone.
On Friday and over the weekend it could move towards the Pilbara coast, possibly impacting the coast from late Friday or Saturday.
From Sunday Ex-Lincoln is likely to be weakening over land.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 14P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8S 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190951Z
SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING. REMNANTS OF 14P ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES POOR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 14P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH POTENTIAL TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS
THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 372 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190951Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING.
REMNANTS OF 14P ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 14P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH POTENTIAL TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS THE
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

Chance for Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln to re-develop.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) is moving slowly west across the Kimberley, bringing heavy rainfall to areas near its path. Refer to Severe Weather Warning.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) interaction with the inland Kimberley has weakened the system.
The system will reach the waters west of the Kimberley Wednesday, and slowly develop on Thursday and there is a Moderate risk it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
The risk of redevelopment increases to High on Friday and Saturday.
07U could move towards the west Pilbara coast or near the Gascoyne coast, possibly impacting the coast from late Friday or Saturday.
From Sunday Ex-Lincoln is likely to be weakening over land.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1760127303546499271

[cycloneye]

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln forecast to re-develop north of the Pilbara coast overnight Thursday.
Refer to Tropical Cyclone Track Map accessed via the yellow banner at the top of the page.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln is offshore of the west Kimberley coast and expected to develop to a tropical cyclone overnight Thursday as it moves to the west southwest.
07U is then forecast to move towards the far west Pilbara coast or near the Gascoyne coast, possibly impacting the coast from Friday or more likely Saturday.
From Sunday Ex-Lincoln is likely to be weakening over land.