SPAC: OSAI - Remnants

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98P INVEST 240206 0600 10.4S 174.4W SHEM 30 1002

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STORM WARNING 015 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 071311 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OSAI CENTRE 991HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5
SOUTH 165.7 WEST AT 071200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.5S 165.7W at 071200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 080000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.0S 164.4W AT 080000 UTC
AND NEAR 18.8S 164.0W AT 081200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013.

[cycloneye]

TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
VWS IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM DESPITE
FAVORABLE SST AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, COMING TO A FORECASTED
INTENSITY OF 40KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING STR SOUTH OF
THE LLCC WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN EASTWARD TO TAU 36 AND THEN
STAY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48.
SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SHOW A POTENTIAL
FOR REINTENSIFICATION TO 35KTS OR ABOVE SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48,
RANGING FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 120. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT
AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT WARNING MAY EXTEND THE FORECAST OF TC
11P AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS
SHARPLY DIVERGE FROM ON ANOTHER OFFERING SEVERAL DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER. MOST MEMBERS TURN THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BETWEEN
TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AS THE JTWC FORECAST RESPECTIVELY SHOWS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A WESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 24, AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS AN EXTENSION OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING EASTWARD AFTER THE
FORECAST INTERVAL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
TRACK GUIDANCE, BUT STILL YIELDS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY. THE
INTENSITY SPREAD, EXCLUDING STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, AT TAU
48 IS 10 KTS CENTERED AROUND 30 KTS.