SIO: CANDICE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

SH, 92, 2024012112, , BEST, 0, 158S, 649E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 0, 0, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 922024.dat

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.4S
64.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212057Z AMSR2 DERIVED
WINDSPEED IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING ALONG A TROUGHING AREA
OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS (23-27KTS) FILL THE
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH LIGHTER (10-15KTS) WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOT) VWS
OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND,
THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT,
CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.4S 64.4E HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 59.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. THE CONVECTION WAS PREVIOUSLY SCATTERED
WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS AND HAS
NOW CONSOLIDATED TO A DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS VISIBLE ON ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE
ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST
LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOPS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING AND INSULATING THE CIRCULATION ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GATHER MOMENTUM AND CONTINUE DEEPENING
AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PASSING TO THE EAST OF
MAURITIUS NEAR 240600Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED AREA number 3

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.

Position on January 23 at 4 a.m. local time: 17.5 South / 60.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 655 km to sector: NORTHEAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1750 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Travel: SOUTH, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- The 3rd system of the 2023-2024 season began to organize itself in the North-East of the Mascarenes yesterday during the day. At present, it is still a weak system.

- Over the next 48 hours, this system should slowly intensify as it moves southwards, bringing it closer to the Mascarenes, particularly Mauritius. With relatively good confidence, the official trajectory does not take it around Reunion Island but between Mauritius and Rodrigues (closer to Mauritius). It could reach the stage of severe tropical storm Thursday.

- A gradual deterioration of conditions is expected over the next 48 hours in Mauritius in terms of rain, wind and sea. A peripheral influence of the system will be felt in Reunion in terms of rain, wind and sea while in Rodrigues the state of the degraded sea will be the main consequence. The extent of the damage still remains uncertain but is less significant than following BELAL.

- From Thursday, the system is expected to evacuate towards the south-east, thus moving away from the Mascarenes.

Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/24 at 4 a.m. local time, at 19.7 South / 58.7 East.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/25 at 4 a.m. local time, at 22.1 South / 59.4 East.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/26 at 4 a.m. local, at 26.2 South / 62.2 East.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,

Center positioned on 01/27 at 4 a.m. local, at 28.6 South / 61.1 East.

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION,

Center positioned on 01/28 at 4 a.m. local time, at 30.0 South / 58.1 East

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED AREA number 3

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.

Position on January 23 at 10 a.m. local: 18.2 South / 59.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 490 km to sector: NORTHEAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1630 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- The 3rd system of the 2023-2024 season began to organize itself in the North-East of the Mascarenes yesterday during the day. At present, it is still a weak system.

- Over the next 48 hours, this system should slowly intensify as it moves southwards, bringing it closer to the Mascarenes, particularly Mauritius. With relatively good confidence, the official trajectory does not take it around Reunion Island but between Mauritius and Rodrigues on Wednesday afternoon (closer to Mauritius). It could reach severe tropical storm status on Thursday.

- A gradual deterioration of conditions is expected over the next 48 hours in Mauritius in terms of rain, wind and sea. A peripheral influence of the system will be felt in Reunion in terms of rain, wind and sea while in Rodrigues the state of the degraded sea will be the main consequence. The extent of the damage still remains uncertain but is less significant than following BELAL.

- From Thursday, the system is expected to evacuate towards the south-east, thus moving away from the Mascarenes.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6S 58.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 23 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A PARTIAL 2317157Z METOP-B ASCAT DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION PLACED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. A RECENT MAURITIUS OBSERVATION SHOWS A DYNAMIC DROP IN
PRESSURE BY 7 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WHILE A SHIP OBSERVATION TO
SOUTHWEST IS SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 28 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY PASSING MAURITIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 3

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.

Position on January 24 at 10 a.m. local: 19.9 South / 57.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 225 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1530 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: NORTHEAST, at 6 km/h.

System information:

- Tropical Depression 03 of the 2023-2024 season is located in the immediate vicinity of the north of Mauritius while still remaining a weak system at present. The baptism should not take long.

- Over the next 24 hours, this system should evolve slowly towards the southeast and could intensify to the moderate tropical storm stage.

- Due to the proximity of this system to the Mascarene Islands, degraded weather conditions to varying degrees are expected in the next 48 hours. Episodes of heavy rain and strong winds are possible in Reunion and Mauritius. The state of the sea will also be degraded on the sister islands and Rodrigues.

- On Thursday the system should move southwards away from inhabited lands, leading to a gradual improvement in weather conditions.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Candice.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 3

(CANDICE)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 993 hPa.

Position on January 24 at 4 p.m. local: 19.7 South / 57.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 235 km to sector: NORTHEAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1530 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: Quasi-stationary.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm CANDICE was named at 08:00 UTC by the Mauritian meteorological service and its center is currently located nearly 30 km north of Mauritius.

- Currently quasi-stationary, it should accelerate and take a southeast direction over the next 24 hours where it could intensify into a strong tropical storm.

- Due to the proximity of this system to the Mascarene Islands, degraded weather conditions to varying degrees are expected in the next 48 hours. Episodes of heavy rain and strong winds are possible in Reunion and Mauritius. The state of the sea will also be degraded on the sister islands and Rodrigues.

- On Thursday, the system is expected to move southward away from inhabited land, leading to a gradual improvement in weather conditions.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 3

(CANDICE)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 989 hPa.

Position on January 24 at 10 p.m. local: 19.7 South / 58.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 290 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1580 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm CANDICE has resumed its movement towards the east-southeast and is bypassing Mauritius from the northeast. It continues to intensify, but with strong winds located offshore, on the northeast side of the system, and not affecting Mauritius for the moment.

- Due to the proximity of this system to the Mascarene Islands, degraded weather conditions of varying degrees are ongoing and expected until Thursday. Heavy rain and strong winds are likely in Reunion (very heavy in the southern half of the department) and Mauritius. The state of the sea will also be degraded on the sister islands and Rodrigues.

- Its movement should continue to accelerate towards the southeast over the next 24 hours where it could intensify into a strong tropical storm by Thursday or Friday, with a peak of intensity expected far from inhabited lands.

- The system will then move southwards out of the tropical zone at the end of the week, allowing a relative improvement in conditions over the Mascarenes from Friday.

[cycloneye]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.4S 57.1E TO 25.8S 61.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8S 57.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.1S 57.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM NORTH
OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241409Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VWS AND MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING ALONG A SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
990MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 3

(CANDICE)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 989 hPa.

Position on January 25 at 4 a.m. local time: 20.9 South / 59.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 345 km to sector: EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1740 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 22 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm CANDICE bypassed Mauritius from the northeast last night and accelerates its movement towards the southeast this Thursday. It was located at the end of the night about 150 km east of Mauritius. The strongest associated winds are located in the eastern part of the system, away from the sister islands.

- On the outskirts of the system, weather conditions on the Mascarenes remain degraded to varying degrees again this Thursday. Heavy rain and fairly strong wind are likely over Reunion (very heavy rain over the southern half of the department) and Mauritius. The state of the sea is also degraded on the sister islands and Rodrigues.

- CANDICE could reach the stage of a strong tropical storm between this Thursday evening and Friday, but with the distance of the system to the south/southeast of the Mascarenes, this peak of intensity will take place far from inhabited lands where a relative improvement in conditions will begin from Friday and more frankly this weekend.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 3

(CANDICE)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 994 hPa.

Position on January 25 at 10 a.m. local: 22.0 South / 59.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 390 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 1830 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 22 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm CANDICE circled Mauritius from the northeast last night and accelerated its movement towards the southeast, ending up at 10:00 local time a little over 250 km from Mauritius. The strongest associated winds are over the eastern part of the system, away from the sister islands.

- On the outskirts of the system, weather conditions on the Mascarenes remain degraded to varying degrees again this Thursday. Heavy rain and fairly strong winds are forecast for Reunion (very heavy rain in the southern half of the department) and Mauritius. The state of the sea is also degraded on the sister islands and Rodrigues.

- CANDICE could reach the stage of a strong tropical storm within 24 hours, but with the distance of the system to the south-east of the Mascarenes, this peak of intensity will take place far from inhabited lands where a relative improvement in conditions will begin from Friday and more frankly this weekend for the Great Mascarenes.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

- Moderate tropical storm CANDICE accelerates its movement by moving towards the south-southeast.

- Now, away from the peripheral zone of the system, the weather conditions are improving more clearly over the hours, on the Great Mascarenes.

- According to our latest forecasts, CANDICE could reach the stage of a strong tropical storm within the next 18 hours, but due to the remoteness of the system to the southeast of the Mascarenes, this peak of intensity will take place far from inhabited lands .

- CANDICE no longer poses a risk to inhabited land.

[Hurricane2022]

That's all folks.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 19.6 degrees South 145.2 degrees East, estimated to be 170 kilometres west southwest of Townsville and 125 kilometres west northwest of Charters Towers.

Movement: west southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has weakened to a tropical low as it continues to track inland northwest of Charters Towers.

Ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily will track further inland today and over the weekend, resulting in heavy to intense rain and possible damaging winds to parts of the northern interior and western Queensland.

Candice still a TS, that's Kirrily

[cycloneye]

That's all folks.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 19.6 degrees South 145.2 degrees East, estimated to be 170 kilometres west southwest of Townsville and 125 kilometres west northwest of Charters Towers.

Movement: west southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has weakened to a tropical low as it continues to track inland northwest of Charters Towers.

Ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily will track further inland today and over the weekend, resulting in heavy to intense rain and possible damaging winds to parts of the northern interior and western Queensland.

Candice still a TS, that's Kirrily

Messed up the systems, but all is now fixed.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 3

(CANDICE)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 990 hPa.

Position on January 26 at 4 a.m. local time: 26.1 South / 61.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 775 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2240 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 26 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm CANDICE continues to move towards the south-southeast.

- Now, away from the peripheral zone of the system, the weather conditions are improving more clearly over the hours, on the Great Mascarenes.

- According to our latest forecasts, CANDICE could reach the stage of a strong tropical storm within the next 06 to 12 hours, but due to the remoteness of the system to the southeast of the Mascarenes, this peak of intensity will take place far from the inhabited land.

- CANDICE no longer poses a risk to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 3

(CANDICE)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 985 hPa.

Position on January 26 at 4 p.m. local: 26.6 South / 61.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 840 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2310 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- The strong tropical storm CANDICE continues its movement which gradually moves it away from the tropical domain while continuing its turn towards the south.

- CANDICE will gradually enter its weakening phase from next night upon encountering more unfavorable environmental conditions.

- CANDICE no longer poses a risk to inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

Bye.