SH, 98, 2024011106, , BEST, 0, 71S, 901E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 155, 0, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 982024.dat
SIO: ANGGREK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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SIO: ANGGREK - Post-Tropical
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 982024.dat
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 98S
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S
92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E, 465NM NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS A
CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A
DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOSITURE AND
IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE
30TH LATITUDE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXTIMATED AT 18-22
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E, 465NM NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS A
CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A
DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOSITURE AND
IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE
30TH LATITUDE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXTIMATED AT 18-22
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S
Upgraded to medium.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0S 93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
130739Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE CENTER, AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
10.0S 93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
130739Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE CENTER, AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S
TCFA issued.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 10.8S 94.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 10.8S 94.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S
Getting organized.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: SIX - Tropical Cyclone
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
AND ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK NER. AS TC 06S BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OVER
THE NEXT DAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THROUGH
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION
OF THE STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-35 KNOTS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 180 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. IN GENERAL, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
WITH TWO DISCRETE CLUSTERS. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE (ECMWF, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN, GALWEM, UKMET AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS
SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
NAVGEM IS A MAJOR OUTLIER INDICATING AN UNREALISTIC FAST TRACK INTO
THE STR SO IS DISCOUNTED. BOTH THE 150000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS
(GEFS) ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A
BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE.
AND ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK NER. AS TC 06S BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OVER
THE NEXT DAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THROUGH
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION
OF THE STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-35 KNOTS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 180 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. IN GENERAL, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
WITH TWO DISCRETE CLUSTERS. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE (ECMWF, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN, GALWEM, UKMET AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS
SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
NAVGEM IS A MAJOR OUTLIER INDICATING AN UNREALISTIC FAST TRACK INTO
THE STR SO IS DISCOUNTED. BOTH THE 150000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS
(GEFS) ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A
BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: 4U - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1339 UTC 15/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone 04U
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 93.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: north (000 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 15/1800: 9.4S 93.5E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 995
+12: 16/0000: 9.3S 93.6E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 992
+18: 16/0600: 9.2S 93.7E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992
+24: 16/1200: 9.2S 93.9E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 992
+36: 17/0000: 9.5S 94.1E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 989
+48: 17/1200: 10.1S 94.3E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 986
+60: 18/0000: 10.9S 94.3E: 115 (215): 060 (110): 983
+72: 18/1200: 11.7S 94.3E: 135 (245): 055 (100): 986
+96: 19/1200: 12.6S 94.4E: 170 (315): 050 (095): 988
+120: 20/1200: 12.5S 94.7E: 225 (415): 035 (065): 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone 04U has formed to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.
Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and a 0735 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass. Intensity estimated at 35 kn based on structure and analysed winds on the
AMSR2 pass, and consistent with Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: No suitable DT can be
assigned on current cloud patterns. A D trend gives MET/PT=3.0. FT/CI=3.0.
Current objective aids: ADT 37 kn, AiDT 31 kn, DPRINT 43 kn (all one-minute
means).
Recent movement has been slow, though generally to the north, under the limited
influence of a ridge to the northwest.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed at around 5 knots at 1200 UTC. There is some dry air to
the south however not currently a significant influence on development. The
CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper divergence.
In the short term steering is light and 04U is expected to remain slow moving,
with westerly monsoon flow assisting with slow eastward motion. A trough to the
west approaches and 04U begins to move to the south from Wednesday.
04U is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as conditions remain
generally favourable. However, intensification potential may be limited by
proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air to encroach,
particularly by later week. Being a small system, 04U is likely to react
quickly to changes in the environment.
In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from
the weekend. Some guidance indicates a westwards motion as a ridge to the south
strengths. However, if 04U weakens it will more likely move towards the east
driven by a monsoonal westerly flow.
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1339 UTC 15/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone 04U
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 93.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: north (000 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 15/1800: 9.4S 93.5E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 995
+12: 16/0000: 9.3S 93.6E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 992
+18: 16/0600: 9.2S 93.7E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992
+24: 16/1200: 9.2S 93.9E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 992
+36: 17/0000: 9.5S 94.1E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 989
+48: 17/1200: 10.1S 94.3E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 986
+60: 18/0000: 10.9S 94.3E: 115 (215): 060 (110): 983
+72: 18/1200: 11.7S 94.3E: 135 (245): 055 (100): 986
+96: 19/1200: 12.6S 94.4E: 170 (315): 050 (095): 988
+120: 20/1200: 12.5S 94.7E: 225 (415): 035 (065): 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone 04U has formed to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.
Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and a 0735 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass. Intensity estimated at 35 kn based on structure and analysed winds on the
AMSR2 pass, and consistent with Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: No suitable DT can be
assigned on current cloud patterns. A D trend gives MET/PT=3.0. FT/CI=3.0.
Current objective aids: ADT 37 kn, AiDT 31 kn, DPRINT 43 kn (all one-minute
means).
Recent movement has been slow, though generally to the north, under the limited
influence of a ridge to the northwest.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed at around 5 knots at 1200 UTC. There is some dry air to
the south however not currently a significant influence on development. The
CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper divergence.
In the short term steering is light and 04U is expected to remain slow moving,
with westerly monsoon flow assisting with slow eastward motion. A trough to the
west approaches and 04U begins to move to the south from Wednesday.
04U is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as conditions remain
generally favourable. However, intensification potential may be limited by
proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air to encroach,
particularly by later week. Being a small system, 04U is likely to react
quickly to changes in the environment.
In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from
the weekend. Some guidance indicates a westwards motion as a ridge to the south
strengths. However, if 04U weakens it will more likely move towards the east
driven by a monsoonal westerly flow.
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 15/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 93.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/0000: 9.4S 93.8E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 992
+12: 16/0600: 9.3S 93.9E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 992
+18: 16/1200: 9.3S 94.0E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992
+24: 16/1800: 9.3S 94.1E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 989
+36: 17/0600: 9.7S 94.3E: 065 (125): 055 (100): 986
+48: 17/1800: 10.5S 94.4E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 983
+60: 18/0600: 11.4S 94.3E: 110 (210): 060 (110): 983
+72: 18/1800: 12.0S 94.3E: 130 (240): 055 (100): 986
+96: 19/1800: 12.6S 94.5E: 170 (315): 045 (085): 992
+120: 20/1800: 12.5S 94.8E: 205 (380): 035 (065): 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (04U) lies to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.
Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and recent passes from ASCAT-B
and ASCAT-C. Intensity estimated at 40 kn based on ASCAT-B pass at 1541 UTC.
Dvorak analysis: DT 3.0 based on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5
degrees of deep convection. A D trend gives MET of 3.5, with PAT adjusted to
3.0. FT/CI=3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 34 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 51 kn,
SATCON 50 kn (all one-minute means).
Recent movement has been slow towards the east.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed easterly at around 5-10 knots at 1500 UTC, however the
displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system
is affected by this shear. There is some dry air to the south however not
currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis
indicates very good upper divergence.
In the short term steering is light and Anggrek is expected to remain slow
moving, with westerly monsoon flow perhaps assisting with slow eastward motion.
A trough to the west approaches and Anggrek begins to move to the south from
Wednesday.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as
conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may
be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air
to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is
likely to react quickly to changes in the environment.
In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from
the weekend. Some guidance indicates a westwards motion as a ridge to the south
strengths. However, if Anggrek weakens it will more likely move towards the
east driven by a monsoonal westerly flow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 15/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 93.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/0000: 9.4S 93.8E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 992
+12: 16/0600: 9.3S 93.9E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 992
+18: 16/1200: 9.3S 94.0E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992
+24: 16/1800: 9.3S 94.1E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 989
+36: 17/0600: 9.7S 94.3E: 065 (125): 055 (100): 986
+48: 17/1800: 10.5S 94.4E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 983
+60: 18/0600: 11.4S 94.3E: 110 (210): 060 (110): 983
+72: 18/1800: 12.0S 94.3E: 130 (240): 055 (100): 986
+96: 19/1800: 12.6S 94.5E: 170 (315): 045 (085): 992
+120: 20/1800: 12.5S 94.8E: 205 (380): 035 (065): 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (04U) lies to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.
Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and recent passes from ASCAT-B
and ASCAT-C. Intensity estimated at 40 kn based on ASCAT-B pass at 1541 UTC.
Dvorak analysis: DT 3.0 based on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5
degrees of deep convection. A D trend gives MET of 3.5, with PAT adjusted to
3.0. FT/CI=3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 34 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 51 kn,
SATCON 50 kn (all one-minute means).
Recent movement has been slow towards the east.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed easterly at around 5-10 knots at 1500 UTC, however the
displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system
is affected by this shear. There is some dry air to the south however not
currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis
indicates very good upper divergence.
In the short term steering is light and Anggrek is expected to remain slow
moving, with westerly monsoon flow perhaps assisting with slow eastward motion.
A trough to the west approaches and Anggrek begins to move to the south from
Wednesday.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as
conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may
be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air
to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is
likely to react quickly to changes in the environment.
In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from
the weekend. Some guidance indicates a westwards motion as a ridge to the south
strengths. However, if Anggrek weakens it will more likely move towards the
east driven by a monsoonal westerly flow.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0057 UTC 16/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.4S
Longitude: 93.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (071 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/0600: 9.5S 94.0E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 992
+12: 16/1200: 9.5S 94.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 991
+18: 16/1800: 9.5S 94.2E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 987
+24: 17/0000: 9.7S 94.3E: 070 (125): 050 (095): 988
+36: 17/1200: 10.4S 94.6E: 070 (135): 055 (100): 985
+48: 18/0000: 11.3S 94.6E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 982
+60: 18/1200: 12.2S 94.6E: 115 (210): 060 (110): 985
+72: 19/0000: 12.7S 94.5E: 140 (260): 060 (110): 985
+96: 20/0000: 12.8S 94.3E: 175 (330): 050 (095): 987
+120: 21/0000: 12.6S 94.1E: 220 (405): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and 2126UTC SSMIS pass. Dvorak
analysis: DT 3.0 based on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5 degrees
from the edge of deep convection. An S trend gives MET of 2.5, with PAT
adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI=3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 34 kn, AiDT 31 kn,
DPRINT 51 kn, SATCON 48 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity maintained at 40
kn.
Recent movement has been slow towards the east northeast.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed easterly at around 8 knots at 1800 UTC, however the
displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system
is affected by this shear. There is some dry air to the south however not
currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis
indicates very good upper divergence.
In the short term steering is somewhat balanced between the monsoon flow to the
north and the upper ridge to the south. Anggrek is expected to remain slow
moving with the westerly monsoon flow perhaps assisting with slow eastward
motion. During Wednesday an upper trough amplifies in the Indian Ocean which
weakens the mid-level ridge and Anggrek begins to move to the south. Later in
the week the trough progresses east and the mid-level ridge rebuilds to the
south of the system. Most deterministic models favour westwards movement in the
longer term however some ensemble members indicate that eastwards movement is
still possible over the weekend. The steering flow may also depend on how
quickly Anggrek weakens with a weaker system caught in the monsoonal westerly
flow with a resulting eastwards movement.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as
conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may
be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air
to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is
likely to react quickly to changes in the environment. Most models favour slow
intensification through until Thursday and then gradual weakening as conditions
become unfavourable.
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0057 UTC 16/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.4S
Longitude: 93.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (071 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/0600: 9.5S 94.0E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 992
+12: 16/1200: 9.5S 94.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 991
+18: 16/1800: 9.5S 94.2E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 987
+24: 17/0000: 9.7S 94.3E: 070 (125): 050 (095): 988
+36: 17/1200: 10.4S 94.6E: 070 (135): 055 (100): 985
+48: 18/0000: 11.3S 94.6E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 982
+60: 18/1200: 12.2S 94.6E: 115 (210): 060 (110): 985
+72: 19/0000: 12.7S 94.5E: 140 (260): 060 (110): 985
+96: 20/0000: 12.8S 94.3E: 175 (330): 050 (095): 987
+120: 21/0000: 12.6S 94.1E: 220 (405): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and 2126UTC SSMIS pass. Dvorak
analysis: DT 3.0 based on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5 degrees
from the edge of deep convection. An S trend gives MET of 2.5, with PAT
adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI=3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 34 kn, AiDT 31 kn,
DPRINT 51 kn, SATCON 48 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity maintained at 40
kn.
Recent movement has been slow towards the east northeast.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed easterly at around 8 knots at 1800 UTC, however the
displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system
is affected by this shear. There is some dry air to the south however not
currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis
indicates very good upper divergence.
In the short term steering is somewhat balanced between the monsoon flow to the
north and the upper ridge to the south. Anggrek is expected to remain slow
moving with the westerly monsoon flow perhaps assisting with slow eastward
motion. During Wednesday an upper trough amplifies in the Indian Ocean which
weakens the mid-level ridge and Anggrek begins to move to the south. Later in
the week the trough progresses east and the mid-level ridge rebuilds to the
south of the system. Most deterministic models favour westwards movement in the
longer term however some ensemble members indicate that eastwards movement is
still possible over the weekend. The steering flow may also depend on how
quickly Anggrek weakens with a weaker system caught in the monsoonal westerly
flow with a resulting eastwards movement.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as
conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may
be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air
to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is
likely to react quickly to changes in the environment. Most models favour slow
intensification through until Thursday and then gradual weakening as conditions
become unfavourable.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
NSW
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0703 UTC 16/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 93.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/1200: 9.5S 94.0E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 994
+12: 16/1800: 9.6S 94.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 991
+18: 17/0000: 9.7S 94.2E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 988
+24: 17/0600: 10.1S 94.4E: 060 (115): 055 (100): 985
+36: 17/1800: 10.9S 94.6E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 982
+48: 18/0600: 11.9S 94.6E: 090 (170): 060 (110): 982
+60: 18/1800: 12.5S 94.5E: 110 (205): 060 (110): 985
+72: 19/0600: 12.8S 94.4E: 130 (245): 055 (100): 985
+96: 20/0600: 12.8S 94.3E: 175 (320): 035 (065): 996
+120: 21/0600: 12.6S 94.0E: 205 (380): 030 (055): 1000
REMARKS:
Position estimated based on animated VIS imagery. Dvorak analysis: DT 3.0 based
on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5 degrees from the edge of deep
convection. An S trend gives MET of 2.5, with PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI=3.0.
Current objective aids: ADT 35 kn, AiDT 35 kn, DPRINT 42 kn, SATCON 40 kn (all
one-minute means). Intensity maintained at 40 kn. Movement has been slow
moving.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed easterly at around 5 knots at 0000 UTC, however the
displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system
is affected a little. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper
divergence.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as
conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may
be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air
to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is
likely to react quickly to changes in the environment. Most models favour slow
intensification through until Friday and then gradual weakening on the weekend.
In the short term, steering is somewhat balanced between the monsoon flow to
the north and the upper ridge to the south. Hence, expect Anggrek to remain
slow moving. During Wednesday, an upper trough amplifies in the Indian Ocean
which weakens the mid-level ridge and Anggrek begins to move to the south.
Later in the week, the trough progresses east and the mid-level ridge rebuilds
to the south of the system. Most deterministic models favour westwards movement
in the longer term, however some ensemble members indicate eastwards movement
is possible over the weekend, perhaps of a weakened Anggrek.
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0703 UTC 16/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 93.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/1200: 9.5S 94.0E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 994
+12: 16/1800: 9.6S 94.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 991
+18: 17/0000: 9.7S 94.2E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 988
+24: 17/0600: 10.1S 94.4E: 060 (115): 055 (100): 985
+36: 17/1800: 10.9S 94.6E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 982
+48: 18/0600: 11.9S 94.6E: 090 (170): 060 (110): 982
+60: 18/1800: 12.5S 94.5E: 110 (205): 060 (110): 985
+72: 19/0600: 12.8S 94.4E: 130 (245): 055 (100): 985
+96: 20/0600: 12.8S 94.3E: 175 (320): 035 (065): 996
+120: 21/0600: 12.6S 94.0E: 205 (380): 030 (055): 1000
REMARKS:
Position estimated based on animated VIS imagery. Dvorak analysis: DT 3.0 based
on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5 degrees from the edge of deep
convection. An S trend gives MET of 2.5, with PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI=3.0.
Current objective aids: ADT 35 kn, AiDT 35 kn, DPRINT 42 kn, SATCON 40 kn (all
one-minute means). Intensity maintained at 40 kn. Movement has been slow
moving.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the
system is low, analysed easterly at around 5 knots at 0000 UTC, however the
displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system
is affected a little. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper
divergence.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as
conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may
be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air
to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is
likely to react quickly to changes in the environment. Most models favour slow
intensification through until Friday and then gradual weakening on the weekend.
In the short term, steering is somewhat balanced between the monsoon flow to
the north and the upper ridge to the south. Hence, expect Anggrek to remain
slow moving. During Wednesday, an upper trough amplifies in the Indian Ocean
which weakens the mid-level ridge and Anggrek begins to move to the south.
Later in the week, the trough progresses east and the mid-level ridge rebuilds
to the south of the system. Most deterministic models favour westwards movement
in the longer term, however some ensemble members indicate eastwards movement
is possible over the weekend, perhaps of a weakened Anggrek.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
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IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1931 UTC 16/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 94.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 17/0000: 9.7S 94.3E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 994
+12: 17/0600: 9.9S 94.5E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 995
+18: 17/1200: 10.3S 94.5E: 055 (095): 045 (085): 992
+24: 17/1800: 10.8S 94.5E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 989
+36: 18/0600: 11.8S 94.2E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 985
+48: 18/1800: 12.6S 93.9E: 100 (185): 045 (085): 992
+60: 19/0600: 13.1S 93.7E: 120 (220): 040 (075): 994
+72: 19/1800: 13.3S 93.4E: 135 (255): 040 (075): 994
+96: 20/1800: 13.0S 92.7E: 165 (310): 030 (055): 1000
+120: 21/1800: 12.6S 91.7E: 205 (375): 030 (055): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek maintains a sheared appearance with the deep
convection remaining slightly offset to the west of the low level centre.
Position estimated based on animated imagery, in particular CIRA ProxyVis.
Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 or 3.0 based on 0.4 curved band or shear pattern with
the centre less than 0.5 degrees from the edge of deep convection. A W- trend
gives MET of 2.5, with PAT adjusted to 2.5. FT of 2.5, CI of 3.0 due to initial
weakening. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 35 kn, AiDT 35 kn,
SATCON 42 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity decreased to 35 kn. The system
has been slow moving.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the forecast track. CIMSS
upper wind analysis indicates that shear over the system remains low, analysed
northeasterly at around 12 knots at 161800 UTC, however the displacement of
convection to the west of the centre indicates that the (small) system is
affected a little by this shear. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very
good upper divergence with good outflow in the southern and western quadrants.
Recent movement has been slow and to the east, with steering from the monsoon
flow to the north becoming balanced by the upper ridge to the south. During
Wednesday, an mid-level trough is forecast to amplify in the Indian Ocean to
the west, pushing the mid-level ridge more to the east of Anggrek. Consequently
Anggrek is expected to move generally to the south through Wednesday and
Thursday. Even though there has been some weakening in the cloud pattern, it is
forecast to slowly strengthen during this period as generally favourable
conditions and low shear persist. The timing of reaching category 2 has been
delayed and the maximum intensity has been reduced.
On Friday the steering pattern becomes very complex, with the main competing
influences being mid-level westerlies to the north of the system, and a
redeveloping ridge to the south. A majority of guidance is indicating that the
ridge will be the dominant steering influence and Anggrek will turn to the
west, however a significant minority suggests the system may instead move to
the east with the northern steering influence being dominant.
In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system
will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and
potential dry air encroachment, causing a weakening trend from about Friday
onwards. The system is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength over
the weekend.
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IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1931 UTC 16/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 94.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 17/0000: 9.7S 94.3E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 994
+12: 17/0600: 9.9S 94.5E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 995
+18: 17/1200: 10.3S 94.5E: 055 (095): 045 (085): 992
+24: 17/1800: 10.8S 94.5E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 989
+36: 18/0600: 11.8S 94.2E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 985
+48: 18/1800: 12.6S 93.9E: 100 (185): 045 (085): 992
+60: 19/0600: 13.1S 93.7E: 120 (220): 040 (075): 994
+72: 19/1800: 13.3S 93.4E: 135 (255): 040 (075): 994
+96: 20/1800: 13.0S 92.7E: 165 (310): 030 (055): 1000
+120: 21/1800: 12.6S 91.7E: 205 (375): 030 (055): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek maintains a sheared appearance with the deep
convection remaining slightly offset to the west of the low level centre.
Position estimated based on animated imagery, in particular CIRA ProxyVis.
Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 or 3.0 based on 0.4 curved band or shear pattern with
the centre less than 0.5 degrees from the edge of deep convection. A W- trend
gives MET of 2.5, with PAT adjusted to 2.5. FT of 2.5, CI of 3.0 due to initial
weakening. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 35 kn, AiDT 35 kn,
SATCON 42 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity decreased to 35 kn. The system
has been slow moving.
SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the forecast track. CIMSS
upper wind analysis indicates that shear over the system remains low, analysed
northeasterly at around 12 knots at 161800 UTC, however the displacement of
convection to the west of the centre indicates that the (small) system is
affected a little by this shear. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very
good upper divergence with good outflow in the southern and western quadrants.
Recent movement has been slow and to the east, with steering from the monsoon
flow to the north becoming balanced by the upper ridge to the south. During
Wednesday, an mid-level trough is forecast to amplify in the Indian Ocean to
the west, pushing the mid-level ridge more to the east of Anggrek. Consequently
Anggrek is expected to move generally to the south through Wednesday and
Thursday. Even though there has been some weakening in the cloud pattern, it is
forecast to slowly strengthen during this period as generally favourable
conditions and low shear persist. The timing of reaching category 2 has been
delayed and the maximum intensity has been reduced.
On Friday the steering pattern becomes very complex, with the main competing
influences being mid-level westerlies to the north of the system, and a
redeveloping ridge to the south. A majority of guidance is indicating that the
ridge will be the dominant steering influence and Anggrek will turn to the
west, however a significant minority suggests the system may instead move to
the east with the northern steering influence being dominant.
In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system
will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and
potential dry air encroachment, causing a weakening trend from about Friday
onwards. The system is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength over
the weekend.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is currently moving slowly in a general southerly
direction
The position which is biased to a recent ASCAT image at 0321UTC.
Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 based on 0.5 curved band. A S trend gives MET of 3.0,
and PAT adjusted to 2.5. FT of 2.5 based on DT and PAT, CI held above FT at
3.0. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 37 kn, AiDT 33 kn, SATCON
48 kn, DPRINT 30 kn, DMINT (2348UTC) 38 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity
set to 35 kn.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS upper wind
analysis indicates that shear has increased to around 20 knots northeasterly.
Deep convection has struggled to persist near the system over the last few
hours.
Anggrek is expected to continue to move generally to the south from Wednesday
through to Friday with steering from the monsoon flow to the north dominating.
Even though there has been some weakening in the cloud pattern, it is forecast
to slowly strengthen in the next 24 hours with generally favourable conditions.
Anggrek is likely to reach category 2 intensity during Thursday.
On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing
influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of
the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that
the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn
westward. However, a minority of guidance suggests the system may move eastward
with the mid-level westerlies being dominant.
In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system
will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and
potential dry air encroachment, causing a slow weakening trend from about
Friday or Saturday. The system is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone
strength late weekend.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is currently moving slowly in a general southerly
direction
The position which is biased to a recent ASCAT image at 0321UTC.
Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 based on 0.5 curved band. A S trend gives MET of 3.0,
and PAT adjusted to 2.5. FT of 2.5 based on DT and PAT, CI held above FT at
3.0. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 37 kn, AiDT 33 kn, SATCON
48 kn, DPRINT 30 kn, DMINT (2348UTC) 38 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity
set to 35 kn.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS upper wind
analysis indicates that shear has increased to around 20 knots northeasterly.
Deep convection has struggled to persist near the system over the last few
hours.
Anggrek is expected to continue to move generally to the south from Wednesday
through to Friday with steering from the monsoon flow to the north dominating.
Even though there has been some weakening in the cloud pattern, it is forecast
to slowly strengthen in the next 24 hours with generally favourable conditions.
Anggrek is likely to reach category 2 intensity during Thursday.
On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing
influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of
the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that
the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn
westward. However, a minority of guidance suggests the system may move eastward
with the mid-level westerlies being dominant.
In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system
will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and
potential dry air encroachment, causing a slow weakening trend from about
Friday or Saturday. The system is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone
strength late weekend.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 17/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.4S
Longitude: 94.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 18/0000: 10.7S 94.1E: 035 (070): 040 (075): 994
+12: 18/0600: 11.1S 94.0E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 992
+18: 18/1200: 11.5S 93.9E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992
+24: 18/1800: 12.0S 93.8E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992
+36: 19/0600: 12.7S 93.5E: 080 (145): 045 (085): 991
+48: 19/1800: 13.0S 93.3E: 090 (165): 040 (075): 994
+60: 20/0600: 13.0S 93.0E: 105 (195): 040 (075): 994
+72: 20/1800: 12.7S 92.7E: 115 (215): 040 (075): 994
+96: 21/1800: 12.4S 91.6E: 140 (260): 030 (055): 1000
+120: 22/1800: 12.5S 90.5E: 170 (315): 030 (055): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly and generally south.
The position is based on animated Himawari imagery and a 1500 UTC scatterometer
pass.
Dvorak analysis: MET of 2.5 based on steady trend and PAT of 2.5. Current
objective aids that are up to date: ADT 41 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 36 kn and
SATCON 43 kn (all one-minute means). Scatter winds from 1500UTC partially
sampled the NE quadrant and observed > 34 knots to the northeast and a wide
area of 30 kts to the southwest. Intensity set to 35 knots, with gales possible
in all quadrants.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Some dry air entrainment
is shown in animated TPW. Shear products are out of date, but satellite imagery
indicates it is not high or outflow in the high levels is able to resist the
shear. A slow strengthening trend is forecast for Thursday and the upper winds
become more easterly. Maximum forecast intensity is now 45 knots and not
category 2. Due to the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a
period.
On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing
influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of
the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that
the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn
westward. However, a minority of guidance suggests the system may move eastward
with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east, it is
likely to be a weak tropical low.
In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system
will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and
potential dry air encroachment, causing a slow weakening trend from about
Friday or Saturday.
Anggrek is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength on Sunday.
However, there is a moderate percentage of guidance scenarios which move it
faster to the west and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone
intensity and strengthen from early next week.
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 17/01/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.4S
Longitude: 94.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 18/0000: 10.7S 94.1E: 035 (070): 040 (075): 994
+12: 18/0600: 11.1S 94.0E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 992
+18: 18/1200: 11.5S 93.9E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992
+24: 18/1800: 12.0S 93.8E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992
+36: 19/0600: 12.7S 93.5E: 080 (145): 045 (085): 991
+48: 19/1800: 13.0S 93.3E: 090 (165): 040 (075): 994
+60: 20/0600: 13.0S 93.0E: 105 (195): 040 (075): 994
+72: 20/1800: 12.7S 92.7E: 115 (215): 040 (075): 994
+96: 21/1800: 12.4S 91.6E: 140 (260): 030 (055): 1000
+120: 22/1800: 12.5S 90.5E: 170 (315): 030 (055): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly and generally south.
The position is based on animated Himawari imagery and a 1500 UTC scatterometer
pass.
Dvorak analysis: MET of 2.5 based on steady trend and PAT of 2.5. Current
objective aids that are up to date: ADT 41 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 36 kn and
SATCON 43 kn (all one-minute means). Scatter winds from 1500UTC partially
sampled the NE quadrant and observed > 34 knots to the northeast and a wide
area of 30 kts to the southwest. Intensity set to 35 knots, with gales possible
in all quadrants.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Some dry air entrainment
is shown in animated TPW. Shear products are out of date, but satellite imagery
indicates it is not high or outflow in the high levels is able to resist the
shear. A slow strengthening trend is forecast for Thursday and the upper winds
become more easterly. Maximum forecast intensity is now 45 knots and not
category 2. Due to the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a
period.
On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing
influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of
the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that
the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn
westward. However, a minority of guidance suggests the system may move eastward
with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east, it is
likely to be a weak tropical low.
In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system
will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and
potential dry air encroachment, causing a slow weakening trend from about
Friday or Saturday.
Anggrek is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength on Sunday.
However, there is a moderate percentage of guidance scenarios which move it
faster to the west and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone
intensity and strengthen from early next week.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly south-southwest with deep convection
persisting along the northern periphery.
No recent microwave or useful scatterometry passes, the position is based on
animated VIS imagery.
Dvorak analysis: Curve band is around 0.5-0.6 wrap with a DT 3.0. MET of 3.5
based on developing trend and PAT is adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI 3.0. Current
objective aids that are up to date: ADT 43 kn, AiDT 35 kn, DPRINT 49 kn, and
SATCON 48 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity held at 40 knots.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Shear is around 15-20
knots northeasterly. The system is forecast to fluctuate between 40-45 kn
through to the weekend and early next week. Due to the small size, it could
still reach category 2 for a period.
On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing
influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of
the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that
the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn
westward. However, a very small amount of guidance suggests the system may move
eastward, with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east,
it is likely to weaken into a tropical low.
In either case, late this week or early next week, an upper trough to the south
of the system will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern
periphery of the subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system.
Increasing wind shear and potential dry air encroachment could cause a slow
weakening trend from late Sunday. However, there is a moderate percentage of
guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the
potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next
week.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly south-southwest with deep convection
persisting along the northern periphery.
No recent microwave or useful scatterometry passes, the position is based on
animated VIS imagery.
Dvorak analysis: Curve band is around 0.5-0.6 wrap with a DT 3.0. MET of 3.5
based on developing trend and PAT is adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI 3.0. Current
objective aids that are up to date: ADT 43 kn, AiDT 35 kn, DPRINT 49 kn, and
SATCON 48 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity held at 40 knots.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Shear is around 15-20
knots northeasterly. The system is forecast to fluctuate between 40-45 kn
through to the weekend and early next week. Due to the small size, it could
still reach category 2 for a period.
On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing
influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of
the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that
the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn
westward. However, a very small amount of guidance suggests the system may move
eastward, with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east,
it is likely to weaken into a tropical low.
In either case, late this week or early next week, an upper trough to the south
of the system will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern
periphery of the subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system.
Increasing wind shear and potential dry air encroachment could cause a slow
weakening trend from late Sunday. However, there is a moderate percentage of
guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the
potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next
week.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:55 am WST on Friday 19 January 2024
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (Category 1) was located at 6:30 am CCT near 12.4S
93.2E, that is 395 km west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving southwest at 6
kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is currently located to the west of the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands and moving southwest. Over the weekend, the most likely
scenario is that Anggrek will continue moving slowly westward at tropical
cyclone intensity. However, if the system does move to the east, then it is
likely to weaken into a tropical low.
Issued at 8:55 am WST on Friday 19 January 2024
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (Category 1) was located at 6:30 am CCT near 12.4S
93.2E, that is 395 km west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving southwest at 6
kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is currently located to the west of the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands and moving southwest. Over the weekend, the most likely
scenario is that Anggrek will continue moving slowly westward at tropical
cyclone intensity. However, if the system does move to the east, then it is
likely to weaken into a tropical low.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek continues moving slowly southwest as a category 1
system.
Position is based on animated EIR imagery with low to medium confidence due to
the LLCC being obscured by deep convection.
With deep convection covering the centre, Anggrek is no longer displaying a
shear pattern, however curvature also remains limited. Applying a curved band
pattern to the EIR gives a wrap of 0.6-0.7 and a DT of 3.0. MET is 4.0 based on
a D development trend and PAT is 3.5. FT/CI 3.5, based on PAT. Current
objective aids are: ADT 53 kn, AiDT 41 kn, DPRINT 64 kn and SATCON 51 kn(all
one-minute means). Intensity set to 45 knots.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear at 0600Z is
relatively high at 23.9 knots easterly despite the lack of a clear shear
presentation on EIR imagery. The system is forecast to fluctuate between 40-45
kn through the weekend and early next week due to competing influences. Due to
the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a period. Shear is likely
to limit the intensity while strong upper divergence is expected to help it
sustain tropical cyclone intensity. Dry air is also encroaching on the system
but for now it remains in a sufficiently moist environment. An increase in dry
air and shear later in the weekend is likely to cause the system to weaken
below tropical cyclone intensity. However, there is a moderate percentage of
guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the
potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next
week.
The movement of the system is also being impacted by competing influences. The
primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a
redeveloping ridge to the south. For now these are reasonably balanced and
hence Anggrek is slow moving. Most guidance suggests that the ridge will begin
to dominate as the steering influence and Anggrek will move westwards. If it
weakens into a shallow system then this would begin to favour eastward movement
in the medium to longer term.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek continues moving slowly southwest as a category 1
system.
Position is based on animated EIR imagery with low to medium confidence due to
the LLCC being obscured by deep convection.
With deep convection covering the centre, Anggrek is no longer displaying a
shear pattern, however curvature also remains limited. Applying a curved band
pattern to the EIR gives a wrap of 0.6-0.7 and a DT of 3.0. MET is 4.0 based on
a D development trend and PAT is 3.5. FT/CI 3.5, based on PAT. Current
objective aids are: ADT 53 kn, AiDT 41 kn, DPRINT 64 kn and SATCON 51 kn(all
one-minute means). Intensity set to 45 knots.
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear at 0600Z is
relatively high at 23.9 knots easterly despite the lack of a clear shear
presentation on EIR imagery. The system is forecast to fluctuate between 40-45
kn through the weekend and early next week due to competing influences. Due to
the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a period. Shear is likely
to limit the intensity while strong upper divergence is expected to help it
sustain tropical cyclone intensity. Dry air is also encroaching on the system
but for now it remains in a sufficiently moist environment. An increase in dry
air and shear later in the weekend is likely to cause the system to weaken
below tropical cyclone intensity. However, there is a moderate percentage of
guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the
potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next
week.
The movement of the system is also being impacted by competing influences. The
primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a
redeveloping ridge to the south. For now these are reasonably balanced and
hence Anggrek is slow moving. Most guidance suggests that the ridge will begin
to dominate as the steering influence and Anggrek will move westwards. If it
weakens into a shallow system then this would begin to favour eastward movement
in the medium to longer term.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: ANGGREK - Tropical Cyclone
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has strengthened to a category 2 system.
Position is extrapolated from a 2319Z GMI microwave image and recent animated
visible imagery with moderate confidence. A 0303Z AMSU-B 89 GHz microwave image
showed deep convection wrapping around the northern semicircle. In the last 6
hours satellite imagery has shown impressive bursts of deep convection above
and wrapping around the low level centre with tighter curvature, while cirrus
outflow is indicating the system is well ventilated, supporting a recent
intensification phase.
Dvorak curved band of 0.6-0.9 wrap in the last 6 hours support an average DT of
3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a S trend and PAT is left at 3.5. FT/CI 3.5/3.5. There
has been no recent scatterometer passes. Objective aids have increased. The
objective aids recently available are: ADT 79 kn, AiDT 72 kn, DPRINT 46 kn (all
one-minute means). Intensity is increased to 50 knots (10-min mean).
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear at 0600Z is
still high at 20 knots from the east but robust convection is preventing the
wind shear from disrupting the system. However animated TPW shows dry air
beginning to wrap into the eastern side of the system. Therefore it is
anticipated that within the next 12-24 hours dry air and wind shear will begin
to weaken the system to a category 1 TC on Sunday and below TC strength by
Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow next week will somewhat
counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation
with quadrant gales. A moderate percentage of guidance scenarios suggest it
might move faster to the southwest and have the potential to maintain tropical
cyclone intensity and strengthen next week.
The movement of the system is also being impacted by competing influences. The
primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a
redeveloping ridge to the south. For now these are reasonably balanced and
hence Anggrek is slow moving. The current forecast track shows the system
performing a loop until it begins a faster movement to the west by next
Thursday. Ensembles show both westwards and eastwards movers and the motion
will be dependent on the intensity of the system, stronger systems are likely
to be steered west and weaker systems to the east.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has strengthened to a category 2 system.
Position is extrapolated from a 2319Z GMI microwave image and recent animated
visible imagery with moderate confidence. A 0303Z AMSU-B 89 GHz microwave image
showed deep convection wrapping around the northern semicircle. In the last 6
hours satellite imagery has shown impressive bursts of deep convection above
and wrapping around the low level centre with tighter curvature, while cirrus
outflow is indicating the system is well ventilated, supporting a recent
intensification phase.
Dvorak curved band of 0.6-0.9 wrap in the last 6 hours support an average DT of
3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a S trend and PAT is left at 3.5. FT/CI 3.5/3.5. There
has been no recent scatterometer passes. Objective aids have increased. The
objective aids recently available are: ADT 79 kn, AiDT 72 kn, DPRINT 46 kn (all
one-minute means). Intensity is increased to 50 knots (10-min mean).
SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear at 0600Z is
still high at 20 knots from the east but robust convection is preventing the
wind shear from disrupting the system. However animated TPW shows dry air
beginning to wrap into the eastern side of the system. Therefore it is
anticipated that within the next 12-24 hours dry air and wind shear will begin
to weaken the system to a category 1 TC on Sunday and below TC strength by
Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow next week will somewhat
counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation
with quadrant gales. A moderate percentage of guidance scenarios suggest it
might move faster to the southwest and have the potential to maintain tropical
cyclone intensity and strengthen next week.
The movement of the system is also being impacted by competing influences. The
primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a
redeveloping ridge to the south. For now these are reasonably balanced and
hence Anggrek is slow moving. The current forecast track shows the system
performing a loop until it begins a faster movement to the west by next
Thursday. Ensembles show both westwards and eastwards movers and the motion
will be dependent on the intensity of the system, stronger systems are likely
to be steered west and weaker systems to the east.
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