https://twitter.com/Sausius_wx/status/1746254828320211142
SIO: BELAL - Remnants
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Hurricane2022
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Severe Tropical Storm
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Severe Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 4 a.m. local time: 18.4 South / 53.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 340 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1080 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL continues its phase of sustained to rapid intensification. The system reached Tropical Cyclone stage this morning at 4 a.m. local time.
- Intensification to the stage of intense tropical cyclone is expected in the next 24 hours, with a system gradually approaching the Great Mascarenes from the west-northwest.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and in particular Reunion, from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is still of the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of passing in the immediate vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.
- For Reunion Island, probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island during the day on Monday. Under the currently preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic swells are expected.
- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 4 a.m. local time: 18.4 South / 53.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 340 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1080 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL continues its phase of sustained to rapid intensification. The system reached Tropical Cyclone stage this morning at 4 a.m. local time.
- Intensification to the stage of intense tropical cyclone is expected in the next 24 hours, with a system gradually approaching the Great Mascarenes from the west-northwest.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and in particular Reunion, from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is still of the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of passing in the immediate vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.
- For Reunion Island, probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island during the day on Monday. Under the currently preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic swells are expected.
- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 1 p.m. local: 19.4 South / 53.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 250 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1150 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 15 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL reached tropical cyclone stage late last night and remained without intensification for the last few hours. It is currently located a little less than 300km northwest of the Reunion coast. It moves towards the South before beginning a turn towards the South-East at the end of the day.
- It is expected that BELAL will resume its intensification in the next 24 hours which could lead it to the stage of intense tropical cyclone at the gates of Reunion.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and in particular Reunion, from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is still of the order of 80 km, but the probability of passing in the immediate vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.
- For Reunion Island, probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island during the day on Monday. Under the currently preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic swells are expected.
- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 1 p.m. local: 19.4 South / 53.5 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 250 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1150 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 15 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL reached tropical cyclone stage late last night and remained without intensification for the last few hours. It is currently located a little less than 300km northwest of the Reunion coast. It moves towards the South before beginning a turn towards the South-East at the end of the day.
- It is expected that BELAL will resume its intensification in the next 24 hours which could lead it to the stage of intense tropical cyclone at the gates of Reunion.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and in particular Reunion, from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The uncertainty on the exact trajectory is still of the order of 80 km, but the probability of passing in the immediate vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.
- For Reunion Island, probable passage of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island during the day on Monday. Under the currently preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic swells are expected.
- Mauritius should also experience very degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, even if the probability of direct influence of the heart of the cyclone on the island seems lower than for Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 4 p.m. local: 19.7 South / 53.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 225 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1180 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Travel: SOUTH, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL reached tropical cyclone stage late last night and its intensity has since stabilized. It should begin a sharper turn towards the South-East next night.
- It is possible that BELAL will resume its intensification in the next 24 hours which could lead it close to the stage or to the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just on the outskirts of Reunion.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts maintain a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 24 hours. Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion Island, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major: devastating winds (around 200km/h on the lowlands, 250km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250km /h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest near 12-15m) and very significant accumulations of rain are expected during the day tomorrow.
- Mauritius should also experience degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 4 p.m. local: 19.7 South / 53.6 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 225 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1180 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Travel: SOUTH, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL reached tropical cyclone stage late last night and its intensity has since stabilized. It should begin a sharper turn towards the South-East next night.
- It is possible that BELAL will resume its intensification in the next 24 hours which could lead it close to the stage or to the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just on the outskirts of Reunion.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts maintain a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 24 hours. Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion Island, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major: devastating winds (around 200km/h on the lowlands, 250km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250km /h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest near 12-15m) and very significant accumulations of rain are expected during the day tomorrow.
- Mauritius should also experience degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 7 p.m. local: 19.8 South / 53.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 210 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1190 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL reached tropical cyclone stage late last night and its intensity has since stabilized. It should begin a sharper turn towards the South-East next night.
- It is possible that BELAL will resume its intensification in the next 24 hours which could lead it close to the stage or to the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just on the outskirts of Reunion.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts maintain a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 24 hours. Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion Island, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major: devastating winds (around 200km/h on the lowlands, 250km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250km /h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest near 12-15m) and very significant accumulations of rain are expected during the day tomorrow.
- Mauritius should also experience degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 7 p.m. local: 19.8 South / 53.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 210 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1190 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL reached tropical cyclone stage late last night and its intensity has since stabilized. It should begin a sharper turn towards the South-East next night.
- It is possible that BELAL will resume its intensification in the next 24 hours which could lead it close to the stage or to the stage of an intense tropical cyclone just on the outskirts of Reunion.
- BELAL should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds near the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from the night of Sunday to Monday and during the day of Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts maintain a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 24 hours. Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion Island, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major: devastating winds (around 200km/h on the lowlands, 250km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250km /h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest near 12-15m) and very significant accumulations of rain are expected during the day tomorrow.
- Mauritius should also experience degraded conditions from Monday or even the following night in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
Peaks as cat 2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 140 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 195 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 969 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 10 p.m. local: 20.0 South / 53.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 185 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1220 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL made a turn towards the southeast this Sunday evening and resumed its intensification, which could lead it to approach Reunion not far from the intense tropical cyclone stage.
- BELAL is therefore a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds close to the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from late night from Sunday to Monday and during the day from Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts confirm a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 18 hours. Such a threat had not been experienced since Cyclone Firinga (January 1989).
- Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major: devastating winds (around 200 km/h on the lowlands, 250 km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250 km/h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest near 12-15m) and very significant accumulations of rain are expected during the day on Monday.
- If the eye of the cyclone passes over Reunion Island, after a first phase of violent winds, a temporary calm will be felt, but should not be interpreted as the end of the cyclone because the winds will resume very suddenly in the opposite direction.
- Mauritius is also expected to experience degraded conditions on Monday and Tuesday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 140 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 195 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 969 hPa.
Position on January 14 at 10 p.m. local: 20.0 South / 53.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 185 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1220 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL made a turn towards the southeast this Sunday evening and resumed its intensification, which could lead it to approach Reunion not far from the intense tropical cyclone stage.
- BELAL is therefore a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds close to the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from late night from Sunday to Monday and during the day from Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts confirm a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 18 hours. Such a threat had not been experienced since Cyclone Firinga (January 1989).
- Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major: devastating winds (around 200 km/h on the lowlands, 250 km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250 km/h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest near 12-15m) and very significant accumulations of rain are expected during the day on Monday.
- If the eye of the cyclone passes over Reunion Island, after a first phase of violent winds, a temporary calm will be felt, but should not be interpreted as the end of the cyclone because the winds will resume very suddenly in the opposite direction.
- Mauritius is also expected to experience degraded conditions on Monday and Tuesday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 215 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 966 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 1 a.m. local time: 20.2 South / 54.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 145 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1260 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL made a turn towards the southeast this Sunday evening and resumed its intensification, which could lead it to approach Reunion not far from the intense tropical cyclone stage.
- BELAL is therefore a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds close to the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from late night from Sunday to Monday and during the day from Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts confirm a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 18 hours. Such a threat had not been experienced since Cyclone Firinga (January 1989).
- Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion Island, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major. Devastating winds (around 200 km/h on the lowlands, 250 km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250 km/h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest close to 12-15m) and very significant rainfall accumulations are expected during the day on Monday.
- If the eye of the cyclone passes over Reunion Island, after a first phase of violent winds, a temporary calm will be felt, but should not be interpreted as the end of the cyclone because the winds will resume very suddenly in the opposite direction.
- Mauritius is also expected to experience degraded conditions on Monday and Tuesday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 215 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 966 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 1 a.m. local time: 20.2 South / 54.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 145 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 1260 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL made a turn towards the southeast this Sunday evening and resumed its intensification, which could lead it to approach Reunion not far from the intense tropical cyclone stage.
- BELAL is therefore a very dangerous cyclone accompanied by extreme winds close to the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches Reunion from late night from Sunday to Monday and during the day from Monday.
- The trajectory forecasts confirm a high probability that the center of the system will pass directly over Réunion or in its immediate vicinity over the next 18 hours. Such a threat had not been experienced since Cyclone Firinga (January 1989).
- Even if the center does not pass directly over Reunion Island, the expected impacts in terms of wind, rain and swell will be major. Devastating winds (around 200 km/h on the lowlands, 250 km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 250 km/h on the highest peaks), a large cyclonic swell (average waves around 8m, the highest close to 12-15m) and very significant rainfall accumulations are expected during the day on Monday.
- If the eye of the cyclone passes over Reunion Island, after a first phase of violent winds, a temporary calm will be felt, but should not be interpreted as the end of the cyclone because the winds will resume very suddenly in the opposite direction.
- Mauritius is also expected to experience degraded conditions on Monday and Tuesday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but to a lesser extent compared to Reunion.
- Residents of Reunion Island and Mauritius are invited to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts concerning this serious cyclone threat and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
And so we have the first Big Bust of 2024. Initially expected to be a high-end Cat 3/4 but barely attained C2 status.
You're welcome, Belal!!!
You're welcome, Belal!!!
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
Hurricane2022 wrote:And so we have the first Big Bust of 2024. Initially expected to be a high-end Cat 3/4 but barely attained C2 status.
You're welcome, Belal!!!
If there is a silver line, people in La Reunion, won't get a monster cyclone, but the copious rains with strong winds will still be there.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
Reunion Island returns to red alert (while the emergency services are carrying out reconnaissance in particular).
The slightly further north trajectory than forecast yesterday probably made it possible to avoid the worst on the island, despite gusts frequently between 150 and 180 km/h and heavy rains.
The slightly further north trajectory than forecast yesterday probably made it possible to avoid the worst on the island, despite gusts frequently between 150 and 180 km/h and heavy rains.
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 1 p.m. local: 21.2 South / 55.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 0 km to sector: EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1470 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL is currently affecting Reunion Island with the passage of the eye wall over the south-east of Reunion.
- The eye of the cyclone impacted the island this Monday and is currently passing over the southeastern coasts of the island with extreme winds. This is a major impact of an intensity probably comparable to Firinga (January 1989).
- BELAL weakened in intensity during its transit over Reunion but nevertheless remains at the tropical cyclone stage.
- Expected major impacts: winds weaken but remain destructive (around 150 km/h on the lowlands, 200 km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 200 km/h on the highest peaks), large cyclonic swells (waves averages around 6m, the highest close to 10-12m) and very significant rainfall accumulations are still expected at the end of Monday on the highlands of the south, south-east and west.
- With the passage of the eye of the cyclone over Reunion, the first phase of violent winds was followed by a temporary calm (calm of the eye), but this should not be interpreted as the end of the cyclone because the winds will pick up very suddenly in the opposite direction.
- Mauritius is expected to experience degraded conditions on Monday and Tuesday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but of a much lower magnitude compared to Reunion.
- Populations are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 1 p.m. local: 21.2 South / 55.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 0 km to sector: EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1470 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL is currently affecting Reunion Island with the passage of the eye wall over the south-east of Reunion.
- The eye of the cyclone impacted the island this Monday and is currently passing over the southeastern coasts of the island with extreme winds. This is a major impact of an intensity probably comparable to Firinga (January 1989).
- BELAL weakened in intensity during its transit over Reunion but nevertheless remains at the tropical cyclone stage.
- Expected major impacts: winds weaken but remain destructive (around 150 km/h on the lowlands, 200 km/h on the inhabited highlands and more than 200 km/h on the highest peaks), large cyclonic swells (waves averages around 6m, the highest close to 10-12m) and very significant rainfall accumulations are still expected at the end of Monday on the highlands of the south, south-east and west.
- With the passage of the eye of the cyclone over Reunion, the first phase of violent winds was followed by a temporary calm (calm of the eye), but this should not be interpreted as the end of the cyclone because the winds will pick up very suddenly in the opposite direction.
- Mauritius is expected to experience degraded conditions on Monday and Tuesday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but of a much lower magnitude compared to Reunion.
- Populations are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
https://twitter.com/Meteovilles/status/1746900927800385909
The #CycloneBelal moves away from the #Réunion . Emergency services are assessing the damage with numerous trees cutting the roads. For the moment, there are no casualties to report. On the neighboring island of #Maurice , a person drowned. (police photo)
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 972 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 7 p.m. local: 21.6 South / 56.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 40 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1510 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL is still close to Reunion Island but the eye is moving away to the southeast of the island.
- BELAL weakened in intensity during its transit over Reunion but nevertheless remains at the tropical cyclone stage.
- Major impacts expected: winds weaken but remain strong (around 100 km/h on the lows, 150 km/h on the highs), a strong to very strong sea state (average waves around 4m, the highest near of 6-8m) and significant rainfall accumulations are still expected in the high but weakening areas.
- Mauritius is expected to experience degraded conditions, linked to a peripheral band which drags on the island during the day on Monday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but of a much lower magnitude compared to Reunion.
- Populations are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Center positioned on 01/16 at 4 p.m. local, at 22.4 South / 59.3 East.
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Center positioned on 01/17 at 4 p.m. local, at 22.3 South / 62.2 East.
STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned on 01/18 at 4 p.m. local time, at 21.7 South / 63.4 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned on 01/19 at 4 p.m. local time, at 22.0 South / 62.9 East.
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned on 01/20 at 4 p.m. local time, at 21.6 South / 62.0 East.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 972 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 7 p.m. local: 21.6 South / 56.1 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 40 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1510 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical cyclone BELAL is still close to Reunion Island but the eye is moving away to the southeast of the island.
- BELAL weakened in intensity during its transit over Reunion but nevertheless remains at the tropical cyclone stage.
- Major impacts expected: winds weaken but remain strong (around 100 km/h on the lows, 150 km/h on the highs), a strong to very strong sea state (average waves around 4m, the highest near of 6-8m) and significant rainfall accumulations are still expected in the high but weakening areas.
- Mauritius is expected to experience degraded conditions, linked to a peripheral band which drags on the island during the day on Monday in terms of wind, rain and swell, but of a much lower magnitude compared to Reunion.
- Populations are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the coming days:
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Center positioned on 01/16 at 4 p.m. local, at 22.4 South / 59.3 East.
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Center positioned on 01/17 at 4 p.m. local, at 22.3 South / 62.2 East.
STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned on 01/18 at 4 p.m. local time, at 21.7 South / 63.4 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned on 01/19 at 4 p.m. local time, at 22.0 South / 62.9 East.
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned on 01/20 at 4 p.m. local time, at 21.6 South / 62.0 East.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Cyclone
STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 155 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 10 p.m. local: 21.7 South / 56.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 115 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1580 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL continues to move away from Reunion via the South-East, continuing to weaken. It was downgraded to a severe tropical storm.
- On Reunion Island, the wind continues to decrease but with gusts of around 100 to 150 km/h still possible on the high ground next night then less than 100 km/h tomorrow during the day. The sea remains rough to very rough (average waves around 4m). Accumulated rains still significant on the highlands are expected in the next 24 hours but decreasing.
- Mauritius is expected to experience degraded conditions, particularly in terms of wind with gusts above 100-150km/h next night, weakening tomorrow during the day. Strong accumulations are also expected as well as heavy to very heavy seas.
- Populations are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 155 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 975 hPa.
Position on January 15 at 10 p.m. local: 21.7 South / 56.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 115 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1580 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL continues to move away from Reunion via the South-East, continuing to weaken. It was downgraded to a severe tropical storm.
- On Reunion Island, the wind continues to decrease but with gusts of around 100 to 150 km/h still possible on the high ground next night then less than 100 km/h tomorrow during the day. The sea remains rough to very rough (average waves around 4m). Accumulated rains still significant on the highlands are expected in the next 24 hours but decreasing.
- Mauritius is expected to experience degraded conditions, particularly in terms of wind with gusts above 100-150km/h next night, weakening tomorrow during the day. Strong accumulations are also expected as well as heavy to very heavy seas.
- Populations are invited to closely monitor the evolution of the forecasts and to comply with the instructions of local authorities.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Storm
STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 2
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 982 hPa.
Position on January 16 at 10 a.m. local: 22.9 South / 58.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 360 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1830 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Travel: SOUTH-EAST, at 19 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL weakened to the stage of a strong tropical storm while continuing its trajectory towards the east-southeast.
-There is no longer any notable impact for Reunion Island.
-Some residual rain is still expected in Mauritius this morning but it will eventually clear out in the afternoon. A few gusts of 80 km/h are still blowing this morning but the wind gradually diminishes during the day.
(BELAL)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 982 hPa.
Position on January 16 at 10 a.m. local: 22.9 South / 58.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 360 km to sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 1830 km to sector: SOUTH-EAST
Travel: SOUTH-EAST, at 19 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL weakened to the stage of a strong tropical storm while continuing its trajectory towards the east-southeast.
-There is no longer any notable impact for Reunion Island.
-Some residual rain is still expected in Mauritius this morning but it will eventually clear out in the afternoon. A few gusts of 80 km/h are still blowing this morning but the wind gradually diminishes during the day.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: BELAL - Tropical Storm
STRONG TROPICAL STORM BELAL
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 981 hPa.
Position on January 16 at 10 p.m. local Meeting: 23.0 South / 61.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 605 km in the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 2060 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector
Travel: EST, at 20 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL is currently at the stage of a strong tropical storm. It is currently benefiting from a slight increase in intensity which will be short-lived.
- It continues its trajectory towards the east then east-southeast before beginning a turnaround which will sign its final weakening.
- Remote peripheral bands pass close to Rodrigues without directly affecting the island.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.
Estimated central pressure: 981 hPa.
Position on January 16 at 10 p.m. local Meeting: 23.0 South / 61.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 605 km in the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 2060 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector
Travel: EST, at 20 km/h.
System information:
- BELAL is currently at the stage of a strong tropical storm. It is currently benefiting from a slight increase in intensity which will be short-lived.
- It continues its trajectory towards the east then east-southeast before beginning a turnaround which will sign its final weakening.
- Remote peripheral bands pass close to Rodrigues without directly affecting the island.
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