#345 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:31 pm
Looking back through additional data, here's a few more thoughts:
* It's becoming clear that Otis made landfall as a category 5 - even if it weakened, that 205 mph wind gust, used at face value in the eyewall, is well supportive of a landfall intensity of 145 kt.
* Otis was likely an INCREDIBLY intense hurricane approaching landfall. I'd be willing to go as high as 160 kt at around 0430Z, but there is no data supporting such. I went with a conservative 150 kt (assuming slight weakening before landfall). That said, it's unclear how much it actually weakened before landfall.
* The pressure was likely VERY high for the intensity. I still think the landfall pressure was around 933 mb (going with the previous calculation and may have overestimated it previously) and haven't seen any evidence supporting a lower pressure. That means I assessed the minimum pressure at 928 mb. It could have been lower - but that is based on the 5 kt decrease. That high pressure is also supported by the Recon flight - at 2030Z, it was likely 115 kt despite a pressure of 960 mb, and at 1900Z, it was likely 105 kt with a pressure of 971 mb.
My revised best track, with new data (again, not official):
EP182023, OTIS, 20,
20231021, 1200, , LO, 9.7N, 97.1W, 25, 1010,
20231021, 1800, , TD, 9.6N, 97.0W, 25, 1010,
20231022, 0000, , TD, 9.5N, 96.8W, 30, 1009,
20231022, 0600, , TD, 9.5N, 96.5W, 30, 1008,
20231022, 1200, , TS, 9.8N, 96.7W, 35, 1007,
20231022, 1800, , TS, 10.1N, 96.9W, 40, 1005,
20231023, 0000, , TS, 10.6N, 97.1W, 40, 1005,
20231023, 0600, , TS, 11.2N, 97.3W, 40, 1005,
20231023, 1200, , TS, 11.7N, 97.5W, 45, 1004,
20231023, 1800, , TS, 12.5N, 97.7W, 45, 1003,
20231024, 0000, , TS, 13.3N, 98.0W, 50, 1002,
20231024, 0600, , TS, 13.8N, 98.5W, 60, 999,
20231024, 1200, , HU, 14.3N, 99.0W, 75, 991,
20231024, 1800, , HU, 14.9N, 99.3W, 100, 974,
20231025, 0000, , HU, 15.7N, 99.6W, 135, 942,
20231025, 0430, I, HU, 16.4N, 99.7W, 150, 928,
20231025, 0600, , HU, 16.7N, 99.7W, 145, 931,
20231025, 0625, L, HU, 16.8N, 99.8W, 145, 933,
20231025, 1200, , TS, 17.9N, 100.5W, 60, 990,
20231025, 1800, , DB, 18.7N, 100.9W, 30, 1005,
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