EPAC: MAX - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2023100512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 931W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, SPAWNINVEST, ep782023 to ep992023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep992023.dat

[cycloneye]

The models are divided between landfall in Mexico ans staying in the water.

[cycloneye]

GFS with landfall just SE of Acapulco.

[cycloneye]

It is enduring shear from the northeast. The question is will the enviroment be good to reach TC status, or it will not be too strong.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Where it landfalls has big implications on GOM development.

[cycloneye]

Where it landfalls has big implications on GOM development.

You think there will be a crossover?

[cycloneye]

Looking like landfall is going to happen and maybe a crossover on the mix?

[Kingarabian]

Where it landfalls has big implications on GOM development.

You think there will be a crossover?

Not a true crossover but more remnants could end up in the GOM if the GFS verifies.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
An area of low pressure is centered about 200 miles south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the low is currently limited and disorganized. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the
next two days, and then turn northward and move closer to the
southern coast of Mexico on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS drops development on this.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
An area of low pressure is centered about 250 miles southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity
is showing signs of becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next two days,
and then turn northward and move closer to the southern coast of
Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Regardless of development, this system
could produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico through early next week and interests in this
area should monitor the disturbance's progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2023100618, , BEST, 0, 130N, 960W, 20, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure centered a couple of
hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to support further development of this
system during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then turn
northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico late Sunday
and Monday. Regardless of development, this system could produce
heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico through early next week. Interests in this area
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are
beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so. The disturbance
is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward through tonight, and
then turn northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico
late Sunday and Monday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could
be required for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico this
evening or overnight, and interests in this area should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
is likely to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

EP, 16, 2023100800, , BEST, 0, 138N, 999W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, TRANSITIONED, epB92023 to ep162023,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of southern Mexico from Acapulco westward to Punta San Telmo.




Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023

A couple of SSMIS microwave overpasses this evening show that
the disturbance (EP99) located a couple of hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized. There is evidence
of some curved banding over the southwestern portion of the
system. While the disturbance does not have enough organization to
be a classified as a tropical cyclone, it is expected to develop
into one within the next day or so, and the forecast track brings it
near the southern coast of Mexico within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Therefore, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories are being initiated
in order to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the
southern coast of Mexico. The initial intensity of the disturbance
is set at 25 kt, which is supported by a couple of earlier ship
observations.

Since the system is still in its formative stage, the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310 degrees at 6 kt. The system
is forecast to move northwestward overnight, but it should turn
north-northwestward on Sunday between a mid-level ridge to its east
and Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. This motion should bring the
center of the system near the southern coast of Mexico in about 48
hours. The GFS is much faster than the remainder of the global
model guidance and takes the center ashore in a little more than 24
hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET models are about 12 to 24 hours
slower. The NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids,
accounting for the variations in forward speed.

The disturbance is located within a moist atmosphere and over SSTs
of 29-30 degrees C. However, the upper-level environment is not as
conducive as there is currently moderate to strong vertical wind
shear over the system. The shear is forecast to relax during the
next day or two, and this should allow the system to develop into a
tropical cyclone and strengthen into a tropical storm before it
reaches the southern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast
shows a peak that is similar to the latest HFIP corrected consensus
aid. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and the system
is forecast to dissipate by 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A tropical storm
watch has been issued for a portion of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.9N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 09/0000Z 15.6N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.4N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.3N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 18.5N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED