ATL: NIGEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Landy]

Not even marked on outlook ???

97L INVEST 230909 1800 13.3N 24.8W ATL 25 1011

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972023.dat

[WalterWhite]

Not even marked on outlook ???

97L INVEST 230909 1800 13.3N 24.8W ATL 25 1011

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1150210519278559312/goes16_vis-swir_97L_202309092055.gif

It will be marked as one in the next TWO.
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972023.dat

[Landy]

This isn't even what models have been pinging for development. That wave is still over Africa.

[WalterWhite]

This isn't even what models have been pinging for development. That wave is still over Africa.

I guess we could possibly get Nigel earlier than we thought, then.

[Iceresistance]

Where is the AOI for 97L?

[cycloneye]

Landy, added to your first post the link to the best track.

[WalterWhite]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A small area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred
miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is
currently producing a small but concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms, and earlier satellite-derived winds suggested a
small circulation could exist. However, environmental conditions
appear to be only marginally favorable for additional development as
the system moves slowly westward, remaining over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[WalterWhite]

Hopefully, this can develop as Tropical Storm Nigel. It would be a nice addition to the season's storm count.

[AnnularCane]

Invest beat its own lemon. Impressive.

[Landy]

ASCAT pass Papin is referring to in the TWO.

[cycloneye]

00z best track.

AL, 97, 2023091000, , BEST, 0, 133N, 260W, 30, 1011, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Could be a TD or weak TS but probably nothing more. Wave behind it should have a lot more potential

EDIT: unless this is the one that actually becomes dominant after the merge, then it could be a big ACE producer

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure, located a few hundred miles to the southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized. Environmental conditions
appear to be only marginally favorable for development as the
disturbance moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is forecast to merge with a larger tropical
wave to its east by midweek and no further development after that
time is expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Emmett_Brown]

The GEFS seems to imply that the wave exiting Africa will absorb 97L and then develop.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Kind of looks like Arlene!

[abajan]

Excerpt from 2 a.m. TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited and
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well to the west of
its center. Additional development of this system is becoming
increasingly unlikely before it merges with a tropical wave to its
east during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Next!

[Sciencerocks]