EPAC: IRWIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

No best track yet, but NHC designated the AOI as 92E in their latest TWO.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922023.dat

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located well south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
few days while it moves west-northwestward over the central portion
of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

EP, 92, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1082W, 25, 1009, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922023.dat

[Extratropical94]

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure system located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over the central portion
of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

1. Central East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite imagery indicates a low pressure system located well south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually
becoming better defined. The system continues to produce some
showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are expected
to become more favorable for additional development of this system
during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the tropical eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

[hipshot]

1. Central East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite imagery indicates a low pressure system located well south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually
becoming better defined. The system continues to produce some
showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are expected
to become more favorable for additional development of this system
during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the tropical eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

Which storm is the one that has moved across Central America and is now near Honduras and south of the Yucatan?

[Extratropical94]

1. Central East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite imagery indicates a low pressure system located well south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually
becoming better defined. The system continues to produce some
showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are expected
to become more favorable for additional development of this system
during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the tropical eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

Which storm is the one that has moved across Central America and is now near Honduras and south of the Yucatan?

This one

Doesn't have an identifier yet, but should be Invest 93L soon.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a low pressure area located about 800 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an elongated low pressure area located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Extratropical94]

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an elongated low pressure area located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 750
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located about 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific. For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

This needs to be upgraded

[Subtrop]

EP, 10, 2023082700, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1182W, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 80, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, TRANSITIONED, epB22023 to ep102023,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 102023.dat

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023

Invest 92-E has become better organized this evening as a curved
band of deep convection has become established along the low's
southwestern semicircle. Additionally, a well-defined center has
been observed in the GOES visible satellite imagery along the edge
of the curved band. Thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Ten-E.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based upon a blend of the TAFB and
SAB subjective Dvorak fixes and is consistent with the scatterometer
winds observed this afternoon. While the system is currently
located over quite warm waters with abundant moisture and low
vertical wind shear, these conducive conditions will not last long.
Along the projected forecast track, the sea-surface temperatures
should lower below 26C as moisture decreases and convective
instability diminishes in about 36 h. On days 4 to 5, the system
should encounter even colder waters and drier conditions. Based on
the above conditions, Ten-E is anticipated to only gradually
intensify through 36 h, followed by gradual weakening until it is
forecast to become a remnant low around day 4. The intensity
forecast is based upon the a blend of the IVCN simple consensus and
HFIP corrected consensus approaches, though none of the
normally-reliable guidance suggests intensification to a hurricane
for the system.

Currently, the tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at
around 8 kt, though the initial motion is uncertain due to Ten-E's
recent formation. A longitudinally-extended mid-level ridge should
continue the system's movement toward the northwest or
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next
couple days. As Ten-E begins to weaken, it should turn toward the
west at a slower rate of speed while it gets steered by the
low-level trades. There is significant along-track spread among
the guidance. The GFS global model and HAFS-COAMPS hurricane models
are substantially slower along the track, while the UKMET and ECMWF
global models are substantially faster. This forecast is most
similar to the HFIP corrected consensus technique, which leans a bit
toward the latter track solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.1N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.8N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 18.1N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 18.2N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Sciencerocks]

[Foxfires]

10E IRWIN 230827 1200 16.4N 120.2W EPAC 35 998