ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2023072818, , BEST, 0, 140N, 387W, 20, 1012, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Nimbus]

Looks like early guidance thinks this will recurve and not even be a threat to Bermuda.
Hopefully it leaves a weakness for the next one to follow.

[cycloneye]

[Emmett_Brown]

Ordinarily in late July, I would be hesitant to predict a storm that hasn't formed yet to be a fish, but so far, the models seem pretty tightly clustered on the recurve idea. There is still time for things to change, especially if development is delayed, but recurving before land seems like a good bet for now.

[Jr0d]

While unlikely, I suppose this area could split in two, with a storm developing and moving north while the other piece stays weak and moves west into the Caribbean towards the LA/GA islands.

[ElectricStorm]

I think a weak, recurving TS is most likely here. But if goes east of Bermuda it would be nice to see a hurricane but that's probably a low chance.

[cycloneye]

Dr Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1684988104309100545




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1684988108692160512




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1684988110692831232

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

It would be great to see this become a formidable, OTS hurricane that then gives 2023 more "active season bragging rights"

I'm rooting for you, 96L!

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

No change in formation chances:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 1100 miles east of
the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early part of next week.
The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and then
turn north-northwestward to northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2023072912, , BEST, 0, 166N, 441W, 20, 1013, DB

[cycloneye]

Looks like a skeleton.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a skeleton.

https://i.imgur.com/0aW64ZC.gif

Too much dry air. Conditions don’t really get favorable enough until it moves north into the subtropical Atlantic and out of the MDR.

[abajan]

Looks like a skeleton.

https://i.imgur.com/0aW64ZC.gif

Definitely looks less vigorous than yesterday. The dry air is affecting it. They should probably reduce the 2-day development chance in the next TWO to 10%, if not 0%. Seven days is a long way out. So, I'd leave that at 70% for now, I guess.

[Nimbus]

The Apex of the wave is already closing in on 18N so still no danger for the islands regardless of development.
The Bermuda high displacement this year is comforting for now.

[LarryWx]

The Apex of the wave is already closing in on 18N so still no danger for the islands regardless of development.
The Bermuda high displacement this year is comforting for now.

Bermuda high is often displaced favorably in El Niño

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 1100 miles east of
the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave and broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early
part of next week. The disturbance is expected to move
northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and then
turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late Monday
or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown