WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

91W INVEST 230722 0600 4.5N 144.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Could this be the GFS and Euro developing behind Doksuri? But Euro operational has it tracking near 155E which is the location of former 90W

[Hayabusa]

06z

[cycloneye]

WP, 91, 2023072212, , BEST, 0, 47N, 1430E, 15, 1008, DB

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Hayabusa]

00z

[Hayabusa]

Near equatorial

91W INVEST 230723 0600 1.7N 144.4E WPAC 15 1006

[cycloneye]

91W INVEST 230723 1200 2.7N 144.8E WPAC 15 1006

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231400Z-240600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23JUL23 0600Z, TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.9N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 722 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 230911Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD AND SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231136Z ASCAT-B
PASS A LARGE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION, WITH SOME ENHANCED WINDS
UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK BENEATH THE CONVECTION BUT
OTHERWISE SHOWS WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (30C) SSTS, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
EMANATING FROM THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 05W TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48, WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SIMILAR
TIMELINE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RESISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

12z

[cycloneye]

Slowly taking shape.

[cycloneye]

WP, 91, 2023072400, , BEST, 0, 57N, 1433E, 15, 1006, DB

[Hayabusa]

00z

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.3N 144.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF FLARING
AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD AND SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
SCATTEROMETERY REVEALED A BROAD CIRCULATION RELATIVELY WEAK
CIRCULATION, WITH SOME HIGH WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK AS PART OF A WESTERLY WIND BURST, BUT OTHERWISE SHOWS
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (30C) SSTS, AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COMING FROM
THE OUTFLOW OF TY 05W TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48, WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SIMILAR
TIMELINE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

WP, 91, 2023072412, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1418E, 15, 1006, DB

[Hayabusa]

06z

[cycloneye]

91W INVEST 230724 1800 8.9N 141.0E WPAC 15 1006

[Hayabusa]

Current predictions seems to be on path towards the southern Japanese islands but let's see...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1683582852229890048

[cycloneye]

91W INVEST 230725 0000 9.4N 140.0E WPAC 15 1006