ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS wants to have none of this

[Spacecoast]

0z Intensity guidance:

[Keldeo1997]

Very low shear and decent RH

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1682200173210943490

[Teban54]

0z Intensity guidance:
https://i.ibb.co/1960m15/ed6.jpg

I know hurricane models are often unreliable until a system actually forms, but wow. Way more aggressive than I ever imagined.

[REDHurricane]

Both the 18z GFS and Euro are showing what should be a relatively favorable environment for development in the next several days, so I'm not too surprised that the hurricane models are optimistic at this point. It'll be interesting to see what the initial HAFS run looks like, too.

Decent looking moisture pocket without much dry air intrusion on both models at +90 hours:




Favorable wind shear environment on both models:




Both models already show increased vorticity around 12N 50W:

[zzzh]

Euro (top) does a much better job on initializing the system than the GFS (bottom).

[NDG]

0z GFS coming in stronger in the short term with 95L.

[Blown Away]

0z GFS coming in stronger in the short term with 95L.

https://i.imgur.com/ldICUFG.png

Moving more WNW, deeper system going to gain latitude.

[NDG]

0z GFS coming in stronger in the short term with 95L.

https://i.imgur.com/ldICUFG.png

Moving more WNW, deeper system going to gain latitude.

And away from the fast easterlies over the Caribbean, which is what EC ensembles that deepen it have been showing, that if it gains latitude as it enters the Caribbean the better chances of it getting stronger.

[Kingarabian]

GEFS members will probably go off. Strongest GFS run in a while.

[cycloneye]

Survives the track thru Hispañola.

[NDG]

Survives the track thru Hispañola.

With a very good UL environment.

[Blown Away]

Survives the track thru Hispañola.

With a very good UL environment.

NHC 7 day cone ends E of the Islands and this GFS run seemed faster with 95L near PR/Hispaniola in @7 days.

[Teban54]

Survives the track thru Hispañola.

With a very good UL environment.

NHC 7 day cone ends E of the Islands and this GFS run seemed faster with 95L near PR/Hispaniola in @7 days.

The NHC cone on TWOs indicates the region where genesis may take place, not where the storm will be after genesis. In other words, the cone is saying that if 95L doesn't develop east of the islands, it probably won't develop after passing the islands. That doesn't mean an established system won't reach as far as the Eastern Caribbean within 7 days.

[Blown Away]

JULY 21st GFS 00z - Over KW on July 29th…

JULY 16th GFS 12z - Over KW on July 29th…

GFS keeps hinting at the same pattern…

[Kingarabian]

LA/MS border it looks like as a MH.

[Blown Away]

LA/MS border it looks like as a MH.

00z GFS

[Teban54]

While this is not in La La Land (the Gulf landfall is in 11 days), short-tern track and intensity can have significant impacts down the road. This run goes right through Hispaniola, but slight deviations can result in anything from dissipation in the Caribbean to a FL landfall or possibly even OTS. Of course, the system may also not get nearly as strong in the short term (thus dissipate even before the islands) or not even develop at all.

[Ianswfl]

If this survives and goes just north of Haiti instead, south Florida might have some serious problems. 90 degree waters around the Bahamas.