WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 230714 0000 5.9N 122.8E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Edited location

98W INVEST 230714 0000 3.9N 140.2E WPAC 15 1009

[ElectricStorm]

GFS has been consistently showing a powerful typhoon forming from an area in this vicinity. Not sure if it's 98W or not but this general area needs to be watched over the next several days.

[Hayabusa]

Yeah not sure if this is the strong typhoon the GFS is forming over the Philippine sea but the location of this invest is about right where the models have the model storm forming...

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z a 910 mb ensemble is spotted

[Hayabusa]

GFS 06Z strikes Luzon as a strong typhoon.

[Hayabusa]

Now medium

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16JUL23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (TALIM) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.1N 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N
136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT WESTERLIES. A 160222Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLC. PTRO OBSERVATIONS REVEAL 15-16 KT SUSTAINED WINDS, 1006
MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE, AND A 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1.7 MB.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
CHARACTERIZED BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
STEADILY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

00z, GFS is more south making landfall on Luzon while Euro grazes just the tip

[Hayabusa]

06z GFS changes to poleward from a Philippine landfall

[doomhaMwx]

This will be a good test for the new HAFS model that's slated to replace HWRF.
HAFS-A handled Talim's broad, monsoonal structure well compared to HWRF, so now it will be interesting to see how it does with a more conventional WPAC TC. First run is aggressive.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WP, 98, 2023071618, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1356E, 20, 1004, DB

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A.

[cycloneye]

[Hayabusa]

Euro 00z makes a Luzon landfall


HFAS 18Z still no 00Z or from HWRF

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP BROAD CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 170001Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A DEFINED
BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FEW 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGER SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET
FURTHER SOUTH OF LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE
PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A at 06z.



06z GFS makes landfall at Taiwan.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

12Z Euro, that wind field is almost ~1400km if it verifies