EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2023062612, , BEST, 0, 130N, 996W, 20, 1008, DB 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, ep742023 to ep912023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep912023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

Off the Southern and Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
along a surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of this
week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Very broad with multiple areas of vorticity to the south and southwest. This seems to be consolidating on the eastern end of the monsoon trough where the GFS has consistently been showing it for the last day or so so I'm confident in genesis. It's possible the WPAC style monsoon trough orientation (due to strong equatorial westerlies off South America) will speed up genesis a bit because strong NW flow already exists.

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2023062618, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1009W, 20, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912023 06/26/23 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 35 46 61 74 86 85 81 69 58 48 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 35 46 61 74 86 85 81 69 58 48 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 30 37 44 51 57 59 53 44 36 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 11 12 11 6 13 10 13 25 30 34 28 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 1 9 8 0 -7 -2 2 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 47 36 36 35 15 335 1 17 76 111 91 97 95 85 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 167 168 163 159 155 147 140 134 131 127 122 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 74 73 75 76 75 74 70 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 11 14 21 24 28 29 29 25 21 16 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 6 2 6 17 18 28 62 72 90 92 83 78 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 68 93 89 88 92 90 94 38 13 18 17 21 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 1 -1 -8 -3 -8 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 338 340 363 375 390 397 423 498 652 721 786 829 847 887 N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.4 101.9 102.4 102.9 104.4 106.2 108.3 110.6 112.3 113.6 114.4 115.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 9 10 11 10 7 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 38 41 43 41 22 16 14 9 8 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 12. 21. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 21. 30. 31. 30. 23. 17. 10. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 15. 26. 41. 54. 66. 65. 61. 49. 38. 28. 0. 0. 0.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 100.9

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.99 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 19.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 10.7% 21.1%
Bayesian: 0.3% 11.9% 5.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% 2.4% 2.9%
Consensus: 0.8% 10.6% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4% 3.1% 4.4% 8.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Off the Southern and Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show some signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the middle part of this week as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912023 06/26/23 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 35 46 61 74 86 85 81 69 58 48 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 35 46 61 74 86 85 81 69 58 48 N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 30 37 44 51 57 59 53 44 36 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 11 12 11 6 13 10 13 25 30 34 28 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 1 9 8 0 -7 -2 2 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 47 36 36 35 15 335 1 17 76 111 91 97 95 85 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 167 168 163 159 155 147 140 134 131 127 122 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 74 73 75 76 75 74 70 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 11 14 21 24 28 29 29 25 21 16 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 6 2 6 17 18 28 62 72 90 92 83 78 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 68 93 89 88 92 90 94 38 13 18 17 21 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 1 -1 -8 -3 -8 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 338 340 363 375 390 397 423 498 652 721 786 829 847 887 N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.4 101.9 102.4 102.9 104.4 106.2 108.3 110.6 112.3 113.6 114.4 115.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 9 10 11 10 7 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 38 41 43 41 22 16 14 9 8 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 12. 21. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 21. 30. 31. 30. 23. 17. 10. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 15. 26. 41. 54. 66. 65. 61. 49. 38. 28. 0. 0. 0.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 100.9

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.99 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 19.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 10.7% 21.1%
Bayesian: 0.3% 11.9% 5.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% 2.4% 2.9%
Consensus: 0.8% 10.6% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4% 3.1% 4.4% 8.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CMISS showing that mid shear has been steady near 10-13kts ahead of it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912023 06/27/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 39 52 69 79 87 84 76 61 50 43 36 32 30
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 39 52 69 79 87 84 76 61 50 43 36 32 30
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 33 41 48 56 62 62 53 44 36 31 30 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 14 8 6 8 9 12 20 29 32 34 25 27 29 29
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 1 4 10 4 -5 -3 0 0 1 0 7 2 3 2
SHEAR DIR 38 33 26 14 349 7 344 39 119 109 102 104 90 78 66 80 93
SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 167 163 160 156 150 143 138 135 130 125 125 127 132 139
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.2 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 8 9 6 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 74 77 79 76 79 76 73 75 72 72 74 71 74 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 12 13 18 26 25 29 29 28 23 19 16 12 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -6 0 9 16 24 42 63 75 93 110 127 121 106 103 83
200 MB DIV 96 88 87 54 81 77 65 35 47 32 41 35 20 -13 11 23 7
700-850 TADV -3 -7 -6 -4 -5 -8 -6 -7 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 4 4
LAND (KM) 339 351 362 363 369 394 470 619 722 767 787 757 735 758 804 838 837
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.5 17.0 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.3 102.9 103.5 104.2 105.9 107.8 110.0 111.6 112.7 113.2 113.6 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 6 4 2 4 2 2 2 4 6
HEAT CONTENT 38 39 37 30 24 17 14 12 8 9 8 4 2 2 2 4 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. 40. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -16. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 23. 30. 31. 28. 20. 14. 9. 5. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 32. 49. 59. 67. 64. 56. 41. 30. 23. 16. 12. 10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.2 101.6

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 9.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3% 6.3% 13.0% 19.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Consensus: 0.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 4.4% 6.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Extratropical94]

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph, generally away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Teban54]

[Kingarabian]

Shear pushing most of that convection to the west of the center. It's also quite large so it'll take a little bit more time to consolidate.

[cycloneye]

Shear pushing most of that convection to the west of the center. It's also quite large so it'll take a little bit more time to consolidate.

The more time it takes to consolidate, it gets closer to the cooler waters.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 271248
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 27/1200Z

C. 14.8N

D. 104.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Not the most defined circulation but closed per earlier ASCAT. Given the drastic increase in convection overnight and curved banding features, I don't think this is far off from classifiable.

[NDG]

Heavily sheared system, doubt it will get stronger than a TS or Cat 1.

[wxman57]

I think it will become the first TS of the season there in another 24 hours or so. My first advisory at 18Z has it peaking at 60kts Thursday evening and dissipating by Monday.