Euro has it a TD/TS in 48h
ATL: CINDY - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
12z Euro really likes 93L, better than TD3, at least in the short term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
NDG wrote:12z Euro really likes 93L, better than TD3, at least in the short term.
https://i.imgur.com/ZuR1B08.gif
And 93L is recurving before the islands so they may not need the 72 hour warnings.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Both HAFS models really like this one. The 18z HAFS-A peaks 93L at 976 mb in the MDR (and Bret at 966), and the HAFS-B peaks 93L at 975 mb (and Bret at 986).
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
All 4 hurricane models 0z runs bring this to hurricane strength, although both HAFS models randomly jump from TS to hurricane and back to TS in the matter of hours especially HAFS-A so I'm not sure those are really believable right now. I'm skeptical this can become a hurricane in June but since 2 June MDR are storms is already pretty much unprecedented I guess all bets are off at this point.
Looks like models are pointing towards a recurve so if that's the case it would be nice to see this make a run for hurricane status.
Looks like models are pointing towards a recurve so if that's the case it would be nice to see this make a run for hurricane status.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
HWRF wants a strong hurricane from 93L, while HAFS A & B only shows a moderate and sheared tropical storm
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Hurricane2022 wrote:https://imageshack.com/i/po5kU2sTp
https://imageshack.com/i/pob9ictzp
HWRF wants a strong hurricane from 93L, while HAFS A & B only shows a moderate and sheared tropical storm
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
00z GFS back in the hurricane camp in about six days.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z GFS back in the hurricane camp in about six days.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
00z and 06z GFS runs show Cindy surviving a period of high shear in a few days and re-intensifying into a hurricane in the subtropics. The only other global model with a remotely similar scenario is the 00z ICON, which is much weaker.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
Cindy's Euro Ensembles are clumped to the west of Bermuda
GFS ensembles clumped to the east.
Mostly on the weak side, but a few get to hurricane strength.
GFS ensembles clumped to the east.
Mostly on the weak side, but a few get to hurricane strength.
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
The only global model that doesn’t show Cindy recovering/re-developing in the subtropics is the CMC. The GFS has been doing so for multiple runs, and the Euro and ICON hopped on board today.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
Ok, who has June Tropical Cyclone hitting Atlantic Canada on their BINGO card?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
More models extend Cindy's tenure as a storm.
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Models
GFS seems very persistent on making this a hurricane later on and bringing it close to Bermuda. NHC doesn’t buy it yet, can’t blame them.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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