ATL: BRET - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 40.3W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave over the central
Atlantic has become better organized this morning. GOES-16 1-min
visible imagery shows that the center has become well defined near
a developing central dense overcast with prominent convective
banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt, based on Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and recent
satellite trends indicate this system is close to tropical-storm
status.

The initial motion estimate is 275/18 kt, a bit uncertain because
the center has just recently become trackable. A large ridge of
high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause
the depression to move westward over the next several days. As the
system nears the Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should
weaken, causing the system to move more toward the west-northwest.
However, there is considerable uncertainty in how much of a right
turn could occur because it is somewhat tied to the intensity of the
cyclone. A stronger system would tend to move more to the right due
to the upper-level flow, while a weaker system would continue more
westward into the Caribbean. For now, this forecast lies near the
model consensus, and adjustments are likely in future advisories.
This should be considered a low confidence track forecast since
this type of forecast situation can result in large errors.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over
the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the
depression's path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and
light shear. This should promote strengthening through midweek.
However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase by most of the
model guidance around day 3 in response to an upper-level trough.
Thus the NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off at the end
of the forecast, consistent with the middle of the guidance
envelope. This intensity forecast is also more uncertain than
normal, due to the differences in the model suite, along with the
aclimatological nature of this system.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and move across the
Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane
plan in place.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 11.0N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BRET FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 42.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become
a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.7N 50.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 52.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 55.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY



Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

Satellite imagery continues to show that the system is becoming
better organized. GOES 1-min data shows convective banding and a
dense central overcast, with the low-level center embedded on the
northwest side of the overcast. Given the satellite trends and
latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is
set to 35 kt, and the depression is named Tropical Storm Bret.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further strengthening
over the next few days, with much warmer than normal SSTs along with
plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear. The NHC forecast
continues to show a gradual increase in wind speed, similar to the
model consensus. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase by most of the model guidance on day 3 in response to an
upper-level trough, along with more dry air nearby. Thus, the NHC
forecast shows a slow weakening after that point while Bret is
over the eastern Caribbean. There continues to be larger than usual
uncertainty, due to the wide spread between the stronger regional
hurricane models and weaker global guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 280/18 kt. A large ridge of high
pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause Bret
to move westward over the next several days. As the system nears the
Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should weaken, causing the
storm to move more toward the west-northwest. The main source of
track uncertainty continues to be tied to how strong Bret becomes,
with the models farthest to the right (HWRF, HAFS) being stronger
than the consensus, while the left-leaning models (ECMWF, UKMET)
showing significant weakening at long range. Given the large track
and intensity spread, the NHC forecast remains near the model
consensus, only a bit faster than the previous cycle. The latest
forecast remains a low confidence prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to strengthen and move across the Lesser
Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 11.7N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.2N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 12.7N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.2N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 14.3N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 15.5N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BRET EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 43.5W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC TUE JUN 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 43.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 43.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

This evening, Bret's structure on satellite has evolved from a
curved banding pattern to a growing central dense overcast near
the estimated center. The exact location of the center is tricky to
pinpoint though, most likely positioned just west of the deepest
central convection. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both
T2.5/35-kt at 00 UTC, 37-kt from UW-CIMSS, and unfortunately there
have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes this
evening. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this
advisory in agreement with the majority of the available data.

The initial motion appears to be just north of due west at 275/16
kt. A deep-layer ridge that is currently positioned overhead of Bret
will initially follow along with the cyclone, maintaining a west or
north of due west heading for the next 48-72 hours. As the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week, a mid- to
upper-level trough is forecast to amplify somewhat, with the
vertical depth of Bret likely to influence its future track. Once
again there is a large spread in both along and cross track model
predictions, with the ECMWF on the south and west end, and the GFS
and some of the strongest hurricane regional models (HWRF, HAFS-A)
on the north and east end. The consensus aids have shifted ever so
slightly south and west from the previous forecast cycle, and the
NHC track will follow suit, especially beyond 60-h. However, there
continues to be larger than normal uncertainty in the track forecast
given the large spread of the guidance suite.

In the short-term, environmental conditions remain quite favorable
for additional intensification, with shear remaining under 10-kt,
and ample mid-level moisture and anomalously warm SSTs maintaining a
favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, steady intensification
seems likely for the next day or so. However, between 36-60 h,
mid-level moisture begins to markedly decrease along Bret's forecast
track, and both the GFS and ECMWF suggest mid-level northwesterly
shear may begin to undercut the more favorable upper-level
easterlies. This is where the intensity forecast becomes tricky,
since a more vertically coherent system could be more resilient
against these less favorable conditions versus one that remains less
aligned and more susceptible to dry air intrusion. The intensity
guidance also diverges over this time frame, with some of the
regional hurricane guidance showing continued intensification,
compared to leveling off from the global model guidance. The latest
NHC forecast is a bit more conservative at this time frame, but
still shows a peak intensity at hurricane intensity between 48-60 h.
Thereafter, even drier air and additional shear is likely to begin a
weakening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit
more weakening than the previous cycle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across
the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and
Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong
winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 11.4N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET CONTINUES WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 44.7W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

Although Bret remains a well-organized tropical cyclone on satellite
imagery, its overall appearance has changed little since yesterday
evening. The cloud pattern consists of a developing CDO with some
banding features mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation.
Cirrus motions show that the upper-level anticyclonic outflow
pattern remains well-defined. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and objective ADT estimates from
UW-CIMMS are also near this value. Therefore, the advisory
intensity is held at 35 kt at this time.

Bret continues to move slightly north of due west or at about 280/15
kt. A mid-level high pressure area is expected to remain positioned
to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next few days. Thus,
little change to the motion is likely through 72-96 hours. In the
latter part of the forecast period, a mid-tropospheric trough near
the Florida peninsula should cause the deep layer ridge to weaken
somewhat. However, it is assumed that the cyclone will be weakening
by that time and steered more by the low-level easterlies. There
continues to be a significant spread in the 3-5 day track model
guidance, probably due in large part to differences in the predicted
intensity of Bret. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one except a little farther to the south near the end of
the period. The simple and corrected consensus model solutions are
even farther to the south.

Both the atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for
strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear and
abnormally warm ocean waters. Therefore, the forecast continues to
call for Bret to become a hurricane in a couple of days. By 72
hours, however, vertical shear is predicted to increase in
association with an upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean
and drier mid-level air should begin to get entrained into the
system. This will likely cause a weakening trend to commence after
Bret moves into the Caribbean as suggested by the global models.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and is above the model consensus and the SHIPS/LGEM
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across
the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and
Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong
winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 11.7N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.1N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 12.6N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 13.1N 52.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 13.9N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 14.3N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 15.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 47.0W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

Bret's low-level center has become exposed this morning, surrounded
by bands of deep convection in nearly all quadrants. Upper-level
outflow still appears established over the system, but the exposed
center may suggest that some moderate westerly shear is affecting
Bret below the cirrus level. Bret's initial intensity remains 35
kt based on T2.5 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Scatterometer passes continue to miss Bret, keeping us from getting
a better handle on the system's intensity and size.

Global model forecast fields suggest that the mid-level westerly
shear affecting Bret is unlikely to abate during the next few days,
and it's likely that deeper-layer shear will also increase in about
2 to 3 days. This forecast scenario has led to some changes in
Bret's intensity forecast. Aside from the HWRF, which is an
outlier scenario, none of the other reliable intensity models bring
Bret to hurricane intensity. In addition, all of the global models
show Bret opening up into a trough in 2 to 4 days as it's passing
the Lesser Antilles or after it moves into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. As a result, Bret's forecast intensity in the NHC prediction
has been decreased, still allowing for the possibility of some
strengthening, but keeping the system below hurricane strength. In
addition, the new forecast now shows dissipation by day 5, but if
the global models are correct, that could occur even sooner.

Bret is moving a little faster toward the west, or 275/18 kt.
Low- to mid-level ridging over the Atlantic is expected to keep
Bret on a westward trajectory through the forecast period, with
only some slight fluctuations in forward speed. The track guidance
has shifted southward on this cycle, under the assumption that
low-level ridging will have a greater impact on preventing a
weaker Bret from gaining much latitude. One important note is that
the weaker Bret remains, it could also move faster than what is
shown in the NHC forecast (and what is suggested by the ECWMF
model).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
early Thursday and then move across the islands Thursday and
Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of flooding
from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the
coast.

2. Given the larger-than-usual uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and
magnitude of where Bret's associated hazards could occur. However,
everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands
should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret. Tropical
storm watches may be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles
later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.9N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.3N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 12.7N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 13.2N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 13.9N 60.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.2N 63.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 14.4N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 48.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados.




Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

A burst of deep convection developed over Bret's center during the
past several hours, although a 1641 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed
that most of the convective activity is located within a band
wrapping around the east side of the circulation. Based on the
slightly improved convective structure, the initial intensity is
raised to 40 kt, which is a blend of T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

Despite upper-level cirrus clouds radiating away from the storm in
all quadrants, it still appears that there is some westerly shear
affecting the system below the cirrus level. Global model
forecasts suggest that this setup will continue for the next couple
of days, but it shouldn't be strong enough to prevent some
additional strengthening while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids through 60 hours, and continues to show Bret
crossing the islands as a 55-kt tropical storm. Just after
that time, Bret will be approaching an upper-level trough located
over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and that feature is likely to cause
more significant deep-layer shear over the storm by Friday.
Because of the increase in shear, all of the global models show
Bret opening up into a trough by day 4. For continuity purposes,
the official forecast continues to show a day 4 point, but it's
likely that Bret will have dissipated by then.

The initial motion remains westward, or 280/17 kt. There is very
little change to the forecast track reasoning, with low- to
mid-level ridging expected to steer Bret toward the west until it
dissipates by day 4. The track guidance has not shifted any
farther south on this cycle, so the new NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one. Users are reminded that NHC's track
forecasts have average errors of 60 to 75 n mi from 48 to 60 hours,
and it is too soon to know exactly where Bret's center will move
across the Lesser Antilles chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across the islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Barbados, and additional watches are likely for other
islands within the Lesser Antilles later tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 12.2N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.6N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 14.2N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 14.4N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 14.7N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR DOMINICA...

The Government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.5W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* St. Lucia

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE....

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 50.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia



Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

Bret has become a little better organized this evening, with
increased convection near and north of the center and some outer
bands developing in the eastern semicircle. This development has
lead to satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB increasing
to 45 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
Unfortunately, the ASCAT overpasses this evening again managed to
miss Bret.

Satellite imagery continues to suggest some vertical wind shear is
undercutting Bret's otherwise favorable looking outflow pattern and
slowing the rate of intensification. This shear is expected to
continue for the next 36 h or so, and the storm is forecast to
continue to slowly strengthen during this time. The new intensity
forecast calls for Bret to have a 55-kt intensity when it passes
near or over the Lesser Antilles around the 48-h point. After
that, stronger shear associated with an upper-level trough over the
eastern Caribbean should stop intensification and cause Bret to
weaken. Indeed, the global models continue to forecast the system
to degenerate to a tropical wave by 96 h. The new intensity
forecast will continue to have a 96 h point followed by dissipation
before 120 h. However, it will show a faster weakening from 72-96 h
than the previous forecast.

The initial motion is westward or 280/15 kt. There is again little
change to either the track forecast guidance or the track forecast
since the last advisory, with low- to mid-level ridging north of
Bret expected to steer the cyclone westward through dissipation.
Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors
of about 60 n mi at 48 hours, and it is too soon to know exactly
where Bret's center will move across the Lesser Antilles chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across the islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia, and
additional watches and warnings are likely for these and other
islands in the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.9N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.3N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 51.4W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia


Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

The storm's cloud pattern consists of a ragged-looking CDO with a
few very cold cloud tops, along with some banding features over the
eastern semicircle. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt,
which is the average of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. Although the overall upper-tropospheric outflow pattern
remains fairly well defined, the outflow is beginning to become
slightly impeded over the western portion of the circulation. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret
this afternoon, and should provide a better estimate of the storm's
intensity and structure.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
but when the cyclone moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, the
atmospheric environment is expected to become increasingly
unfavorable for intensification. Dynamical guidance indicates that
the flow associated with an upper-level trough over the eastern
Caribbean, and a stronger trough farther west, should create a
significant increase in vertical shear over Bret. As a result, the
tropical cyclone is likely to begin weakening in a couple of days,
and global models are in good agreement that the system will
degenerate into a wave as it approaches the western Caribbean Sea.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
near or a little above the model consensus.

Bret continues its mainly westward track with an initial motion of
280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of
the tropical cyclone for the next few days. This steering pattern
will maintain a slightly north of due westward movement until the
system dissipates. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts
have average errors of about 60 n mi at 48 hours, and it is too soon
to know exactly where Bret's center will move across the Lesser
Antilles island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across those islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a strong tropical storm, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia, and
additional watches and warnings are likely for these and other
islands in the Lesser Antilles today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 12.8N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.1N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.8N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 14.5N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 14.8N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for these islands today.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 52.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique



Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Bret's cloud pattern remains ragged, and cloud top temperatures have
warmed a bit compared to earlier this morning. Since there has not
been an appreciable increase in organization, the initial intensity
remains 50 kt, which is a blend between the latest subjective
numbers from TAFB and SAB, and objective final-T numbers (which
have been decreasing). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and should
provide a better estimate of the storm's intensity and wind field
size.

The storm still appears to be under the influence of moderate
westerly shear below the cirrus level, with the bulk of the deep
convection displaced to the east of the center. Bret still has an
opportunity to strengthen slightly over the next day or so, and the
NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA
solutions through 36 hours. Stronger deep-layer shear is expected
to cause weakening in about 36 to 48 hours after Bret moves into the
eastern Caribbean Sea, and global model fields indicate that the
circulation could open up into a trough by Saturday. As a result,
dissipation is now shown in the official forecast by day 4, although
it could occur sooner than that.

Low- to mid-level ridging continues to push Bret westward at 280/12
kt. The steering flow is expected to strengthen some in the next
couple of days, and Bret is therefore forecast to accelerate toward
the west on Thursday and Friday as it's approaching and passing
across the Lesser Antilles. There have been no significant shifts
in the track guidance on this cycle, and the new NHC track forecast
is therefore unchanged from the 5 am forecast. Users are reminded
that NHC's track forecasts have average errors of about 45-50 n mi
at 36 hours, and there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall
for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of
exactly where the center crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is still too early to specify the exact location and magnitude of
where Bret's associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect for Barbados, Dominica, and Martinique.
Additional warnings are likely for some islands in the Lesser
Antilles later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 13.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.2N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 13.5N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 13.9N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BRET...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 53.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS BRET SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 53.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica





Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Despite being under the influence of mid-level westerly shear, Bret
appears to have intensified slightly. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a fairly solid area of 50- to
55-kt winds to the northeast of the center, and the central pressure
has fallen to 1000 mb. In addition, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt, so Bret's initial intensity is
therefore raised to 55 kt. The deep convection continues to favor
the eastern side of the circulation, although a burst of convection
recently formed over the center.

Although there is a small possibility of slight additional
strengthening, continued moderate mid-level shear is likely to keep
Bret's intensity hovering around 55 kt for the next 24 hours as it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. Most of the intensity guidance
supports this scenario. After that time, stronger deep-layer shear
is forecast to develop as Bret nears an upper-level trough over the
Caribbean Sea, and those conditions are expected to lead to
weakening after the cyclone crosses the Lesser Antilles island
chain. Global model fields continue to show Bret degenerating into
an open trough by Saturday, however a 72-hour forecast point is
still shown in this forecast for continuity purposes.

Bret continues to move westward, or 280/13 kt, under the influence
of low- to mid-level ridging to its north. This steering flow is
not expected to change, but Bret is likely to move faster toward
the west once it begins weakening in 36 to 48 hours. The track
guidance envelope has been stable, and therefore the updated NHC
track forecast has been changed very little from the morning
forecast. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have
average errors of about 45-50 n mi at 36 hours, and there is risk of
strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the
Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the
island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is still too early to specify the exact location and magnitude of
where Bret's associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for St. Lucia and Martinique, and a Tropical
Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and Dominica. Additional
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.3N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.8N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.2N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 14.5N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 14.7N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 14.9N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
505 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE APPROACHING BRET...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 54.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR DOMINICA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines




Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Bret has changed little in intensity during the past few hours.
The aircraft reported a central pressure near 999-1000 mb with
maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt to the northeast of the
center, along with a maximum surface wind estimate of 56 kt from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. Based on these, the initial
intensity remains 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Bret
continues to generate strong convection near and northeast of the
center. However, it continues to be affected by northwesterly shear
that is undercutting the storm's outflow pattern.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours as
Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. After that time, the cyclone
will encounter increasing vertical wind shear due to an upper-level
trough over the eastern Caribbean. This should cause steady to
rapid weakening, and Bret is now expected to degenerate into an
open trough between 60-72 hr in agreement with the global model
guidance. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance.

Bret continues to move westward, or 280/14 kt, under the influence
of low- to mid-level ridging to its north. Some increase in
forward speed may occur over the Caribbean as Bret weakens. There
has been little change in the track guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track with the center passing through the Lesser Antilles in about
24 hours. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have
average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of
strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the
Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the
island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique,
and Dominica, and there is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall,
strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning
area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St
Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional warnings are possible for
some islands in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET POISED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES




Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Bret threw some interesting data at us during the couple of hours
after the release of the previous advisory. On the last pass of the
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through Bret's center,
the plane measured SFMR winds as high as 69 kt and a dropsonde
surface pressure of 996 mb with 31 kt of wind. Significant
mid-level westerly shear is still affecting the system, and a 0539
UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined mid-level eye
feature displaced about a degree to the east of Bret's low-level
center. It appears that the strong SFMR winds were measured beneath
the strong convection in the western mid-level eyewall feature, so
it's possible that they were transient and convectively driven.
That said, Bret's initial intensity was raised to 60 kt on the 2 am
intermediate advisory out of an abundance of caution, and that
remains the current estimate. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and will hopefully
confirm whether or not the storm is still producing winds that
strong.

Vertical shear is expected to gradually increase over the next
couple of days as Bret approaches an upper-level trough located over
the eastern Caribbean Sea. The storm could maintain its intensity
or fluctuate in intensity through much of today, but it is expected
to begin weakening by tonight once it crosses the Lesser Antilles
and moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Global model fields
indicate that Bret should degenerate into a trough over the central
Caribbean Sea by day 3, which is shown in the official forecast.

There are no changes in the track forecast reasoning. Bret is
moving toward the west, or 280/13 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its north. An accelerated westward motion is expected
during the next few days as Bret weakens, and the NHC track forecast
is a little faster than the consensus aids, hedging toward the
faster GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded that NHC's track
forecasts have average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and
there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands
within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center
crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles today and then
move across those islands this evening and tonight as a strong
tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within
the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.7N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.1N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 14.6N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...265 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 57.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines




Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Bret is nearing the Lesser Antilles and remains close to hurricane
strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the storm this morning and found winds to support maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt. Bret remains very titled in the
vertical, with the low-level center located near the southwestern
edge of the main area of deep convection. The aircraft found the
strongest winds on the north side of the circulation, with generally
light winds on the southwest side of Bret.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 12 kt on the south
side of a subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is expected to remain
in place, Bret should continue its westward motion but at a faster
pace. This should take the storm across the Lesser Antilles this
evening and overnight and then across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Although the models are in fair
agreement, there is some spread in the forward speed among the model
solutions. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and remains on the fast side of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models.

Bret is expected to maintain its intensity when it moves across the
Lesser Antilles tonight. However, weakening should begin shortly
after that due to a pronounced increase in westerly shear and dry
air intrusions. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN solutions. Bret is
still expected to degenerate into an open wave Saturday night or
early Sunday before reaching the western Caribbean Sea.

There is a risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several
islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the
center crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening
and tonight as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within
the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.5N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 14.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi