ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023061700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 252W, 20, 1011, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, al772023 to al922023

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ElectricStorm]

Well this will be interesting to track in June. Could be a sign of things to come...

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1669869941690970112

[Category5Kaiju]

This is going to be a wild thread. While I myself may be currently in Seattle and very far from the tropics, I'm honestly very curious to see how this entire, quite unparalleled situation unfolds and how close this new system gets to the Lesser Antilles.

[zzzh]

Well, this is consolidating faster than I thought.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

This won't be picking up high CAPE air or high TPW air from the Amazon until it gets to 50W.
SAL is pretty strong.
ICON and Euro keep it weak until then.
GFS is the outlier with it strengthening before then.

[Blown Away]

I believe this map is Wxman57’s prediction for the season. 92L likely following a track close to what he is predicting. Stronger goes N earlier, weaker goes S into Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1669880944784822272

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1669882317949599753

[msbee]

And it has begun!
Hope it gives us some rain.

[cycloneye]

And it has begun!
Hope it gives us some rain.

Hi Barbara. Yes, dont want a hurricane in any of the islands. Go fishing.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1669854701607870466

[aspen]

It’s not even the official start of summer yet, and we already have an invest in the MDR that might become a hurricane later on….during a developing El Niño. The heck is going on with this year lol.

[Sciencerocks]

It’s not even the official start of summer yet, and we already have an invest in the MDR that might become a hurricane later on….during a developing El Niño. The heck is going on with this year lol.

Nino's trend to start fast and then shut down. We can pump out the majority of the storms early in the season before the shear slams the door. Probably the opposite will happen in teh eastern Pacific as the backend of that season could be very active and which will induce the shear over teh Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1669882317949599753?s=46&t=XBIz1onRhnB4BEmG3K1oew

So let's review. We have record warm sst anomalies (to the point one may look at the current environment and think the ocean is in August or September). Combine that with a strong +AMO and -NAO keeping trades weak, as well as abnormally low levels of SAL. Oh yeah, and not to mention, a -PDO/-PMM that is keeping the EPAC unusually quiet despite a classic El Nino beginning to come into effect. Ah yes, and add an active West African monsoon into the mix.

I know it's June, but...

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

1. I think this probably stays at a reasonable strength as conditions will likely not be quite as favorable with dry air + more wind shear. Sure the eastern Atlantic is far more favorable then normal, but it isn't going to likely produce a cat3-4 unlike what the hurricane intensity models are suggesting.
2. The ridging will be stronger and drive the system towards the islands. I'd watch this closely!
3. I think 55-65 knots is likely the peak intensity within the next 7 days...
4. I don't believe this will be a threat to the united states as the break in the ridging at 70-75 west will likely suck it upwards and recurve it out to sea after threatening the islands and Puerto rico.

wait and see.

[USTropics]

Follow the low-level vorticity for now, we'll need these two low-level vort lobes to consolidate. The most likely scenario is for the SW lobe to pivot towards the NE with consolidation in 24-48 hours from now:


This is the most likely scenario for several reasons, and is common TCG in the tropical wave critical layer for AEWs running parallel to to the ITCZ. There was a really good study on this of Fabio in 2000 in the EPAC (AEW origins north of the ITCZ) that shows the same distinct evolution (https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/9/5 ... 7-2009.pdf):


We can also see that the greatest concentration of the 500mb (upper-level) vorticity is towards the NE, which would favor consolidation and a pivot of the SW low-level vort lobe:


24-hour animation of 850-mb vort signature: