ATL: BRET - Models

[zzzh]

Post the models here.

[Kingarabian]

June 16 and we've got a CV model thread.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS much more active and west. A few majors in the ensembles now very close or through NE Caribbean.

It’s still June regardless of historic SST’s, gotta think the GFS is developing to quickly and we may see development later as it nears NE Caribbean. JMHO

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/CKcvFsQ6/17-C0-BC21-43-F0-441-A-8075-3-BBEB2-A7-BC28.jpg [/url]

18z GEFS much more active and west. A few majors in the ensembles now very close or through NE Caribbean.

It’s still June regardless of historic SST’s, gotta think the GFS is developing to quickly and we may see development later as it nears NE Caribbean. JMHO

Dont like the latest trends and hopefully they go back more far from the islands.

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting when HWRF, HMON and HAFSv03S begin their runs to see how they have the intensity.

[Blown Away]

12z GEPS/CMC… Stays on the weak side and through the big islands and into SFL…

[IcyTundra]

GFS not developing as quickly this run.

[BobHarlem]

The 0z icon makes it into the Caribbean, a bit of a change from 12z where it recurved around 52W. Although a bit weaker. Also develops another MDR system behind it. Icon (and cmc) are much weaker than the GFS. The GFS is weaker this run than the 18z, slower, and starts to curve north of the islands around 55w rather than 57w in the 18z.

0z icon


0z gfs (at lowest pressure)

[SFLcane]

[JetFuel_SE]

https://i.postimg.cc/C174wnsz/IMG-1286.png

Ah yes, small pinhole-looking eye in an MDR storm in June.
Although it'll likely recurve before then, the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico needs to watch this closely, can't rule out significant impacts.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro bringing TS/Cat 1 to NE Caribbean… Weakens in Caribbean and goes through Hispaniola into SE Bahamas… Lots of shear in Caribbean, 92L will have to go N of Caribbean to survive ATM…

[JetFuel_SE]

[kevin]

Both 00z HMON and HWRF have a MH at +126 hrs.

[Ivanhater]

Already insane we are probably looking at a Cape Verde hurricane in June but models are picking up on another one right behind this

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1670017534140076032

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/50QQy83m/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh114-282.gif [/url]

12z GEPS/CMC… Stays on the weak side and through the big islands and into SFL…

Would be quite a change on the position of the ridge from the last few weeks where the trough has been so stubborn, the second system is one to watch

[aspen]

06z GFS and HWRF have a TS in about 48 hours or so on Monday morning. That might be a little too rapid given the current state of the wave, but we’ll see how it evolves over the next day.

[cycloneye]

06z HMON has cat 3 east of Guadeloupe around 55W.

[cycloneye]

About HAFS.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1670044008754688001