ATL: IDALIA - Models

[cane5]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76jW2vSj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-216.gif [/url]

18z GFS…

Being on the Space Coast um yeah no thank you. No loopback needed.

0z hurricane models:
HAFS-A with a 130kt Cat 4 at landfall (I think this is a bit too strong)
HAFS-B with a 110-115kt Cat 3/4
HMON with around a 115kt Cat 4
HWRF the weakest with a strong Cat 2 just before landfall. 943mb at landfall which would be very low for a Cat 2

Notably all keep it right on or West of 85W until somewhere near or past 27N. Going to have to watch how it steers during RI.

Some models have Idalia doing a uturn coming back and hitting South Florida.

[LandoWill]

0z hurricane models:
HAFS-A with a 130kt Cat 4 at landfall (I think this is a bit too strong)
HAFS-B with a 110-115kt Cat 3/4
HMON with around a 115kt Cat 4
HWRF the weakest with a strong Cat 2 just before landfall. 943mb at landfall which would be very low for a Cat 2

Notably all keep it right on or West of 85W until somewhere near or past 27N. Going to have to watch how it steers during RI.

RADAR FIX EYE 22.25N 84.84W LIMITED RADAR PRESENTATION DIAM 16NM OPEN SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST

[Bocadude85]

The 0z Euro-Fast looks east of 18z and 12z, but it’s difficult to tell by how much.
Edit now that the 0z Euro is coming in, it in fact is a very minor shift.

[FLLurker32]

The 0z Euro-Fast looks east of 18z and 12z, but its difficult to tell by how much

Looks maybe 20 miles north of cedar key.

[caneman]

The 0z Euro-Fast looks east of 18z and 12z, but its difficult to tell by how much

Looks maybe 20 miles north of cedar key.

Agree. That's a good bump east. Are we sure that is current? How does that differ from the regular Euro? Is it accurate?

[Bocadude85]

The 0z Euro-Fast looks east of 18z and 12z, but its difficult to tell by how much

Looks maybe 20 miles north of cedar key.

Agree. That's a good bump east. Are we sure that is current? How does that differ from the regular Euro? Is it accurate?

It is the same as the Euro afaik, it just comes out faster since it is released in 24 hour increments

[FLLurker32]

Looks maybe 20 miles north of cedar key.

Agree. That's a good bump east. Are we sure that is current? How does that differ from the regular Euro? Is it accurate?

It is the same as the Euro afaik, it just comes out faster since it is released in 24 hour increments

It is the same. It’s a very slight shift East from last run. Nothing crazy.

[caneman]

Agree. That's a good bump east. Are we sure that is current? How does that differ from the regular Euro? Is it accurate?

It is the same as the Euro afaik, it just comes out faster since it is released in 24 hour increments

It is the same. It’s a very slight shift East from last run. Nothing crazy.

Every little shift can matter living here on the beaches of Pinellas. What are you alls thoughts on the RBM Graf model on the prior page. Has it had any success in short term hurricane modeling?

[Keldeo1997]

This needs to get more attention. There is a non 0% chance we get round 2

[Blown Away]

00z Euro… Slightly E

[CFLHurricane]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4rr0w0bcAArbht?format=png&name=900x900

This needs to get more attention. There is a non 0% chance we get round 2

Looks like more attention will be payed to it in about 72 hours. NGL, the possibility is intriguing.

[NDG]

06z GFS fairly similar to its earlier 0z run, has it tracking almost straight north for the next 24 hrs.

[Michele B]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4rr0w0bcAArbht?format=png&name=900x900

This needs to get more attention. There is a non 0% chance we get round 2

Looks like more attention will be payed to it in about 72 hours. NGL, the possibility is intriguing.

Intriguing?!?!?

That’s as crazy as it gets.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The giant loop shown in the GFS reminds me of Ivan in 2004. Its remnants also looped around and tracked over southern Florida before redeveloping in the Gulf and striking Louisiana/Texas as a weak tropical storm

[chris_fit]

06z EURO

[chris_fit]

FWIW - tracking E of almost all guidance and official NHC Track. I'm sure it's just a wobble... but always get that uneasy feeling when it wobbles in the 'wrong' direction.

[chris_fit]

I would like to note that the NNW/NW movement that many of the models were showing yesterday did not seem to materialize.

[fllawyer]

06z EURO

https://i.imgur.com/3ENgg2a.png

Seems this verifies if storm keeps almost due N track until landfall. Or of course goes E and then wobbles back W.

[sarcean]

The giant loop shown in the GFS reminds me of Ivan in 2004. Its remnants also looped around and tracked over southern Florida before redeveloping in the Gulf and striking Louisiana/Texas as a weak tropical storm

Ivan was pretty wild

[chaser1]

FWIW - tracking E of almost all guidance and official NHC Track. I'm sure it's just a wobble... but always get that uneasy feeling when it wobbles in the 'wrong' direction.



https://i.imgur.com/QGPBoO9.png

Apparently and hopefully, the current heading would appear to "catch-up" with all of the guidance tracks. Looks to me like its now tracking pretty much close to due north.